Tropical Storm Henri

[Typhoon Tip]

I needs ( Euro ) to initialize the system deeper - deal with it.

[Dan76]

Hooking to the left?

[Sn0waddict]

HWRF is almost identical to the GFS. 

[Newman]

The Euro practically has an open wave at this latitude compared to the NHC forecast, GFS, UKMET, CMC which at least have some semblance of a tropical/extratropical system.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I needs ( Euro ) to initialize the system deeper - deal with it.

Global models seldom resolve the intensity of tropical systems accurately- deal with that.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I just want to see some surge and wind  heres hoping 

In agawam?

[WxWatcher007]

Euro still wants to effectively kill it on Friday/Saturday. So that’ll be a whiff on this run. 
 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cat 1?

The other guidance (minus Euro and Canadian) have Henri intensify nicely based on the environment parallel to the SE/Mid-Atlantic coast, but it’s moving way too slow verbatim to hit stronger than a 1 IMO as it’s on final approach.

This far north you can basically lock in a hostile environment for a strong tropical system. It needs to move faster north of the Gulf Stream through landfall to compensate for the increasing rate of structural decay that would happen. 

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I needs ( Euro ) to initialize the system deeper - deal with it.

At initialization it's fine I think but given it doesn't spin up into much the whole run you might not put as much weight on it as normal. Intensity matters to track here I think. 

[Modfan2]

Don’t need much in New England to cause problems, Irene and Isaias showed us the that; a week Cat 1 cause some issues.

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Global models seldom resolve the intensity of tropical systems accurately- deal with that.

It's almost an open wave the whole time though lol. That's something else entirely. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Global models seldom resolve the intensity of tropical systems accurate- deal with that.

In this case the euro isn’t picking up much of a circulation, I think the resolution is more of an issue With euro /Henri because of the storms small size, it’s nearly  missing it, and I’m not sure if this effects the model handling the  steering flow and trough interaction due to that 

[weatherwiz]

The Euro has been pretty trash with tropical systems the past few-plus years. Just something to consider here 

[Newman]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro still wants to effectively kill it on Friday/Saturday. So that’ll be a whiff on this run. 
 

The other guidance (minus Euro and Canadian) have Henri intensify nicely based on the environment parallel to the SE/Mid-Atlantic coast, but it’s moving way too slow verbatim to hit stronger than a 1 IMO as it’s on final approach.

This far north you can basically lock in a hostile environment for a strong tropical system. It needs to move faster north of the Gulf Stream through landfall to compensate for the increasing rate of structural decay that would happen. 

Yeah even the hefty 970some millibar HWRF would become unimpressive (wind wise) for those in SNE. Too slow and too much decay. In 18 hours, verbatim, it practically goes from a nicely stacked borderline CAT 2/3 cane to a slow moving, decaying TS/Low end Cat 1. Sure flooding would be bad for where it stalls, maybe horrific in spots. But if you're looking for 1938 type winds, well that was booking almost 50mph forward speed and this ain't that.

[CoastalWx]

The slow stall would certainly help alleviate wind threat, but surge and fresh water flooding would likely be worse. It appears to me this will not be accelerating, so I wouldn't get too excited from winds.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

At initialization it's fine I think but given it doesn't spin up into much the whole run you might not put as much weight on it as normal. Intensity matters to track here I think. 

 

5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It's almost an open wave the whole time though lol. That's something else entirely. 

 

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

In this case the euro isn’t picking up much of a circulation, I think the resolution is more of an issue With euro /Henri because of the storms small size, it’s nearly  missing it, and I’m not sure if this effects the model handling the  steering flow and trough interaction due to that 

Yea, its more pronounced than usual, sure...I was answering specifically to initialization. Its fine to disagree and explain a position like you guys have done, but the douchey, condescending tone isn't needed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The slow stall would certainly help alleviate wind threat, but surge and fresh water flooding would likely be worse. It appears to me this will not be accelerating, so I wouldn't get too excited from winds.

Agree.

[PowderBeard]

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

In agawam?

If seals can get up the CT River to Holyoke, so can surge lol

https://www.westernmassnews.com/news/seal-sighted-along-connecticut-river-in-holyoke/article_bbe401f6-7dbd-11e9-9fcb-f7f5bdf558aa.html

[WxWatcher007]

The structure, although still tilted, is clearly closer to the other globals right now than the euro. Toss all the future NE implications aside, this structure makes it less likely to be completely gutted by shear in the next 24-48 hours before it reaches a more favorable environment.

 

[CoastalWx]

Actually euro slings it NW into Gulf of Maine.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Global models seldom resolve the intensity of tropical systems accurately- deal with that.

I am - the GFS is just such a Global instrument of mass destruction - LOL

no, but I think that it is more trustworthy at least in the short term, seeing as it even knows it is there - the Euro doesn't make it abundantly clear that it is resolving Henri at point of initialization, it's not going to be subsequently clear that it is properly interacting with "reality" out in time just the same. 

As far as the GFS out in time..  mm,don't know about that whole looping shit though.  Time to work that/track I guess.

But a couple things occur to me. 

One, west Atlantic ridges are notoriously under handled.    Sandy was originally into Maine ... end up near Cape May, much for the same reason, the -NAO/westerly biased block became more mechanical in the steering as a correction - the track shifted west and ultimately down the coast accordingly.

Two, Fred appears to have ended up on the westerly envelope track - sometimes in situ synoptics repeat.  Is this one of those times? 

Both these two facets may lean a climo inference toward a west position - hey, at least there's a clad logic to this reasoning.

Also, I am seeing a primitive eye on vis this hour.  A stronger system interacting with the surrounding medium "might" also alter matters. ..the impetus being, emerging eye may indicate strengthening.

 

[Cyclone-68]

I’m liking my Hurricane Belle analogue this morning 

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

The structure, although still tilted, is clearly closer to the other globals right now than the euro. Toss all the future NE implications aside, this structure makes it less likely to be completely gutted by shear in the next 24-48 hours before it reaches a more favorable environment.

 

Yeah euro is borderline tossable. It's basically not showing a TC. 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Hooking to the left?

Weenie?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am not a tide guy ( @Ginx snewx), but this could have some truly epic coastal flooding along the south coast...that will be the story.

[Damage In Tolland]

The dude looks great on viz sat currently. Eye clearly starting to pop . Euro FTL it seems 

[WeatherHappens]

no wind threat? i'm out

[OSUmetstud]

So it looks like to me that a stronger storm initially through the next day or so pushes the storm southwest (shear vector is out of the northeast). The after, a stronger storm should help build the WAR to the west of it. If you have a weak pos those two things don't happen. 

[rimetree]

I have a wind fetish as well. Even marginal TS gusts for 24 hours would be somewhat interesting and certainly make for some good wave watching. We'll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

So it looks like to me that a stronger storm initially through the next day or so pushes the storm southwest (shear vector is out of the northeast). The after, a stronger storm should help build the WAR to the west of it. If you have a weak pos those two things don't happen. 

That makes sense.

Thanks.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's bizarre seeing Henri approaching the U.S. from that azimuth