wxeyeNH Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 GFS comes west again. Threat to Southern New England Increasing. Discuss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Wish it wasn’t the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The loop thing seems actually more supported in some respect. Henri gets absorbed into that weak MA trough and just sits underneath the eastern Canadian ridge. There's not much push for a proper landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That was one hell of a run. That’s as anomalous as it gets with a loop like that over SNE (not out at sea). Also note that the GFS is consistent in showing weakening on final approach. Probably not a whole helluva lot of scientific merit in making the following statement... buuut, I don't like it when models get cutesy with loops and weird stalls when handling a type of phenomenon where predicting those aspects has almost never been achieved - very well at least. Perhaps the state of the art with that sort of thing is better ... but D4? My experience is that it could just as well mean the entire handling can be disrupted in future runs - and that probably in spirit does have merit. But, I mean, I almost wonder if we should considering it a negative in deterministic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Wish it wasn’t the GFS The GFS has been competitive, if not better than the Euro at various elements of tropical prediction, including track forecasting. Every system is different but the GFS is legit for tropical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 It’s so hard to get a direct hit in New England so I’m a little skeptical but many of the models are trending west so watching it closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Probably not a whole helluva lot of scientific merit in making the following statement... buuut, I don't like it when models get cutesy with loops and weird stalls when handling a type of phenomenon where predicting those aspects has almost never been achieved - very well at least. Perhaps the state of the art with that sort of thing is better ... but D4? My experience is that it could just as well mean the entire handling can be disrupted in future runs - and that probably in spirit does have merit. But, I mean, I almost wonder if we should considering it a negative in deterministic. I could see Henri come north towards New England, stall out south of us but far enough so that it does not cause extensive disruption and slowly spin down as it waits for the high to move out and then resumes a NE motion. In any event a path 200 miles SE of Nantucket seems less and less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Boom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wish it wasn’t the GFS Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Boom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 CMC further offshore and weaker vs 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I could see Henri come north towards New England, stall out south of us but far enough so that it does not cause extensive disruption and slowly spin down as it waits for the high to move out and then resumes a NE motion. In any event a path 200 miles SE of Nantucket seems less and less likely. Certainly not impossible, no - 'loops' to me are almost like resolving uncertaing causes the loop more so. Lol... Half kidding. Loops do happen, but blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Clear trend west. Some members even take this into Jersey now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Newman said: Clear trend west. Some members even take this into Jersey now i'd rather sere it go out to sea 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 That was the general tropical thread - not sure that should have been closed? lol - whatever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Newman said: Clear trend west. Some members even take this into Jersey now Do you live in NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Do you live in NJ? He's close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That was the general tropical thread - not sure that should have been closed? lol - whatever. Just trying to get people posting in this one for now. There's nothing else going on besides this. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 WOW at the GFS solution. First glance the upper pattern doesn't seem extremely supportive but if there is an ULL which drops southeast as the GFS is suggesting that would support such a scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Uncle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 18.08.2021 0 29.9N 66.1W 1004 40 0000UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.7N 68.4W 999 51 1200UTC 19.08.2021 24 29.5N 70.6W 987 61 0000UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.5N 72.5W 983 63 1200UTC 20.08.2021 48 30.0N 73.9W 981 65 0000UTC 21.08.2021 60 31.3N 74.3W 976 68 1200UTC 21.08.2021 72 33.7N 73.2W 961 85 0000UTC 22.08.2021 84 37.4N 71.3W 960 81 1200UTC 22.08.2021 96 41.1N 70.2W 962 79 0000UTC 23.08.2021 108 42.4N 69.9W 986 46 1200UTC 23.08.2021 120 43.0N 68.0W 996 35 0000UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.4N 65.5W 1003 27 1200UTC 24.08.2021 144 44.2N 62.5W 1005 25 Doesn't copy well but this is the last UKMET TC guidance. I think it goes over the cape as it weakens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Just trying to get people posting in this one for now. There's nothing else going on besides this. lol Flooding and tors with Fred tomorrow morning 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 This NAO curve does support some semblance of blocking ... I mean the NAO domain is large enough - it could be more so over the eastern vs western limb where that takes place. But since the modest blocking that rolls over top and settles S of NS seems want to be the primary conductor in sending Henri circuitously as does ( GFS), having this synoptic super-structural indicator is probably fitting - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Do you live in NJ? Central PA, I'm well out of this. I'm tracking this and rooting for you guys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Ukie is a strong hit over SE New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 18.08.2021 0 29.9N 66.1W 1004 40 0000UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.7N 68.4W 999 51 1200UTC 19.08.2021 24 29.5N 70.6W 987 61 0000UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.5N 72.5W 983 63 1200UTC 20.08.2021 48 30.0N 73.9W 981 65 0000UTC 21.08.2021 60 31.3N 74.3W 976 68 1200UTC 21.08.2021 72 33.7N 73.2W 961 85 0000UTC 22.08.2021 84 37.4N 71.3W 960 81 1200UTC 22.08.2021 96 41.1N 70.2W 962 79 0000UTC 23.08.2021 108 42.4N 69.9W 986 46 1200UTC 23.08.2021 120 43.0N 68.0W 996 35 0000UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.4N 65.5W 1003 27 1200UTC 24.08.2021 144 44.2N 62.5W 1005 25 Doesn't copy well but this is the last UKMET TC guidance. I think it goes over the cape as it weakens? Yep pretty identical track to 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Flooding and tors with Fred tomorrow morning 1955? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I expect the Euro OP to follow the Ukie. At least that’s what I do in the winter lol. Not that I care what the OP says right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 there is so much time from now till Sunday...i wish we were seeing these models Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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