LoboLeader1 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 59 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Well that's a huge difference. I know a lot of people weren't jumping onto a potential New England landfall or any effects because of the euro but it's been slowly moving more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 We're at/near peak shear and Henri seems to be holding up. 27kt analyzed on the 06z GFS and 31kt on CIMSS. It decreases through today and into tomorrow, dropping to or below 20kt by 06z tonight and down to 10-15 by tomorrow evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 We're at/near peak shear and Henri seems to be holding up. 27kt analyzed on the 06z GFS and 31kt on CIMSS. It decreases through today and into tomorrow, dropping to or below 20kt by 06z tonight and down to 10-15 by tomorrow evening.The mid-level vortex isn't decoupled from the low-level center, but it sure is tilted southward to the max. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 12Z UKMET with the ultimate weenie run. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 52 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: 12Z UKMET with the ultimate weenie run. And what would that be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: And what would that be? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Looks like Henri is starting to move out of the stronger shear, more pinwheel than pumpkinseed. Still tilted a bit, but still traveling due west. The next 12 - 24 hrs are going to be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I'm surprised this thread isn't at 50 pages. Back in the old days of EasternUSWX...people would have been going crazy. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, Floydbuster said: I'm surprised this thread isn't at 50 pages. Back in the old days of EasternUSWX...people would have been going crazy. I was thinking that too, but the ensemble split has left everything such a coin toss so far. Once there's more model agreement, the page count will jump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I'm surprised this thread isn't at 50 pages. Back in the old days of EasternUSWX...people would have been going crazy. Its pretty much all happening over in the NE Sub Thread, Henri topic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 A couple things I noticed on today's models... First, the UK initializes Henri too strong (low to mid 980s). Second, while the Euro initializes it pretty well, it then weakens it as it heads north. That is odd considering the rest of the models strengthen it during the same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 hours ago, Floydbuster said: I'm surprised this thread isn't at 50 pages. Back in the old days of EasternUSWX...people would have been going crazy. The SNE thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 hours ago, Floydbuster said: I'm surprised this thread isn't at 50 pages. Back in the old days of EasternUSWX...people would have been going crazy. I wish I was around for easternwx, sounds like it was an awesome place 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Lots of 18z euro ensembles now show a NYC metro strike. Now that would be something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 34 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Lots of 18z euro ensembles now show a NYC metro strike. Now that would be something The mean of the runs still take it east of Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 We went from not expecting much to hurricane watches along the New England coast. What a season so far... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 We went from not expecting much to hurricane watches along the New England coast. What a season so far...Haha yes. I am still skeptical of hurricane intensity at landfall with Henri though. If it slows down as much as modeled, it's going to be falling apart. If the trough interaction is stronger or the mid level steering flow is a little stronger, then perhaps. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 What are the Fri 2pm coordinates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: What are the Fri 2pm coordinates? Location: 30.8°N 73.8°W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Location: 30.8°N 73.8°W So about 1.2 south and 2.3 west of forecast from Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Does not seem to be anything to exert an eastward push. When is that supposed to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 WTF Guess I have been away too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 The deep convection is still firing well southeast of the center. Recon just fixed the center near 31.5N 74W, at the nw edge of the cirrus canopy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The deep convection is still firing well southeast of the center. Recon just fixed the center near 31.5N 74W, at the nw edge of the cirrus canopy. Still small west component. When is east component to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Is it just me or does it appear as if the center of the NOAA cone shows Henri running up Groton-New London in CT ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 hours ago, Hotair said: Is it just me or does it appear as if the center of the NOAA cone shows Henri running up Groton-New London in CT ? Later run takes it further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Still small west component. When is east component to start It isn't. It is going to go north, maybe NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Dropsonde says 996 mb with 31 kt wind, so ~993 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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