Windspeed Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I realize this thread is being neglected somewhat with several busy regional (PA/NY/Mid-Atlantic/NE) forums with a landfalling Henri. At any rate, Henri is now Hurricane Henri. The third Atlantic hurricane and the first time since 2012 to have three this early. Kind of a surprising stat on the latter there as we've had some busy seasons since 2012. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Ironically, just as they upgrade it to hurricane the core convection craps out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Hot take: this isn’t a hurricane right now. I haven’t seen any observations to indicate that it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Gotta agree. What observations or intel did they use? If anything, the storm looks like it is becoming more decoupled. I waited for the most recent vis. Satellite imagery, and it's not healthy looking at all. IR imagery is likewise, deteriorating near the core. Maybe forward motion north will help with alignment, but I'm confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 22 minutes ago, dseagull said: Gotta agree. What observations or intel did they use? If anything, the storm looks like it is becoming more decoupled. I waited for the most recent vis. Satellite imagery, and it's not healthy looking at all. IR imagery is likewise, deteriorating near the core. Maybe forward motion north will help with alignment, but I'm confused. FL winds indicated hurricane even though SFMR observations were quite low. They averaged the two. I have to agree though, I seriously doubt this is producing surface winds even near hurricane force with the lack of convection. This will be a 45-50 kt storm at landfall. It’s over water as warm as it will get and does not have time to organize a core. There is no jet stream energy to tap into (like some higher latitude systems like Isaias) so this will be a decaying TS at landfall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 It isn't. It is going to go north, maybe NNWDeep down, we all think "IT" is going to happen. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Thread is fairly dead, so my contribution is an observation based on my fishing out of Barnegat Inlet this morning. Scrapped an inshore (40 mile) run to the tuna grounds last night. Wasnt concerned about wind or chop, but didnt want to go back through the inlet on an ebb tide with a big SE swell. Instead, pushed off the dock at 0545 to catch the second half of the flood near the inlet for fluke (summer flounder.) Buoy 16.2 miles off had 3.4 at 14 seconds. I was pissed I didnt go offshore... inlet and surrounding bars looks glassy with minimal swell. Did well fishing, and quit at slack around 10. Swell actually dropped off. Looked at cameras up and down the coast and confirmed the same. Talked to friends who went offshore and said the long period swell was slowly building, but it was otherwise just light showers and beautiful. I figure the swell will pick up as the storm makes it's way north, but I know a lot of fisherman that err on the side of caution, are kicking themselves for not pushing off deep. I know a lot of surfers that had sunrise surf expectations that were let down too. This is a compact storm, and interaction with the trough was tough to pinpoint. Like fishing, the unknown and unpredictability, is what keeps us coming back for weather obs.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbullsfan22 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 What is going on, why isn’t this thread more popular? Potential US landfall hurricane and it’s crickets? Where is everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said: What is going on, why isn’t this thread more popular? Potential US landfall hurricane and it’s crickets? Where is everyone I'm here. But not a Tampa Bay storm just watching mostly. But yea, where are all the "Sandy" people who we are used to seeing post?? Weather Channel is all over it, so it is in public domain getting attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 What is going on, why isn’t this thread more popular? Potential US landfall hurricane and it’s crickets? Where is everyone New England regional subforum has the hot thread. Makes sense since that is where it will be making landfall and the forum kind of rose out of the ashes of EasternWx. The tropical subforum threads are hotter when its a purely tropical and subtropical latitude event. This system isn't exactly going to make people "OMG!!" at any point from an intense hurricane aspect, outside of some kind of unforeseen atmospheric phenomenon. I should clarify Henri is still a dangerous threat, but more from a hydrological event. A Gloria or '38 it aint.Edit: Now watch since I made a that snooty insulting comment about Henri above, it drops 20 milibars over the next 6 hours. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, Windspeed said: New England regional subforum has the hot thread. Makes sense since that is where it will be making landfall and the forum kind of rose out of the ashes of EasternWx. The tropical subforum threads are hotter when its a purely tropical and subtropical latitude event. This system isn't exactly going to make people "OMG!!" at any point from an intense hurricane aspect, outside of some kind of unforeseen atmospheric phenomenon. Oh yes, I see it is HOT right now. I didn't even think about a New England sub-forum during a Tropical Storm. LOL Look at all those names I've never seen! Might have to jump in just for fun. Or not, I am not seeking for more people to block my posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 NOAA2 is en route so we should get a sampling of Henri despite the earlier AF Hurricane Hunter abort. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbullsfan22 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Got it thanks, I’ve never ventured out of this sub forum so didn’t even know such a thing existed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texas Weather Center Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/18/2021 at 2:56 PM, David-LI said: What's the best website to track live hurricane data, winds etc, if such site exists? This is a pretty good one @David-LIhttp://www.trackthetropics.com/ They have everything all in one page of info, which is awesome. Also refer to the post I made here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texas Weather Center Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Dbullsfan22 said: What is going on, why isn’t this thread more popular? Potential US landfall hurricane and it’s crickets? Where is everyone I'm noticing that too, strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 The latest recon dropsonde measured 988 mb, so no change. Maybe the new convective blowup can get the pressure down a couple mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Cab someone more expert in meteorology help us understand this egregious modeling failure to predict the record precipitation generated by this storm? It seems to me that the focus on the exact landfall and the peak intensity caused everyone to lose sight of the real issue, but honestly the models did not handle the moisture element well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Did I never change the thread title to acknowledge Henri's former status as a hurricane? Oops 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Insane rain amounts here in NYC and inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Insane rain amounts here in NYC and inland areas.Yeah NYC and areas just north are in the pivot of a nasty band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Insane rain amounts here in NYC and inland areas. Think that reflects the poor track forecast for this storm, which has just kept chugging along rather than make the sharp right turn to the east that the models all agreed on. I've no idea what that was based on and the models did correctly call for the shift from mostly west to mostly north earlier, but in this instance, they were badly caught out. None forecast Henri would meander around CT and the Hudson Valley. Frankly not a great advertisement for our meteorological forecasting skills. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Here is the next few to several hours. Won't be anything left of Henri. H5 trough absorbing the storm. Which there is nothing really left of it now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 12:56 PM, NorthHillsWx said: FL winds indicated hurricane even though SFMR observations were quite low. They averaged the two. I have to agree though, I seriously doubt this is producing surface winds even near hurricane force with the lack of convection. This will be a 45-50 kt storm at landfall. It’s over water as warm as it will get and does not have time to organize a core. There is no jet stream energy to tap into (like some higher latitude systems like Isaias) so this will be a decaying TS at landfall You may want to volunteer to assist the National Hurricane Center. At 5 PM on Saturday (4 hours after you posted), the NHC "Wind Probs" were vastly inflated for just about every location. For example, they showed a 99% probability that Providence, RI would experience sustained tropical force winds over the weekend. The reality: The highest sustained wind at TF Green Providence International Airport was only 35 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 5:06 PM, Dbullsfan22 said: What is going on, why isn’t this thread more popular? Potential US landfall hurricane and it’s crickets? Where is everyone ...because it was never going to be a significant threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ...because it was never going to be a significant threat. Some models did show it being a significant threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Some models did show it being a significant threat And the NHC seemed to tilt heavily toward those models, even though they seemed implausible to most experienced forecasters. I think what NHC did was unwise, as mistakes of this type can cause the general public to be skeptical of future projections that may legitimately forecast a scary scenario requiring an evacuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 1 hour ago, RodneyS said: And the NHC seemed to tilt heavily toward those models, even though they seemed implausible to most experienced forecasters. I think what NHC did was unwise, as mistakes of this type can cause the general public to be skeptical of future projections that may legitimately forecast a scary scenario requiring an evacuation. Agree. There was plenty of hype for the storm. At some point in time there is going to be a greater threat from a storm. And people will remember storms like Henri and that will cause the general public to not prepare. The hype for snowstorms has been going on for years. Most snowfall forecasts bust to the low side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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