StantonParkHoya Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: On tropical tidbits, am I missing something, or is the 12z Euro just shearing Henri apart by HR72 apart to nothing and kicking it well out to sea? Seems to imply an absorption with the weak trough traversing NE, which seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: On tropical tidbits, am I missing something, or is the 12z Euro just shearing Henri apart by HR72 apart to nothing and kicking it well out to sea? It intializes way too weak. It's at 1012 mb at 11 am, while the 11 am advisory has it at 998 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I’ll be the first to say it: on visible, and not just in one frame, it looks like Henri may be starting to clear out an eye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 GFS keeps shifting west. Last night it was eastern New England, today New York City. In a couple more days we will know for sure, but I’ll say now this has a high probability to be the Northeast Hurricane that all the weather enthusiasts up there have been waiting for. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said: GFS keeps shifting west. Last night it was eastern New England, today New York City. In a couple more days we will know for sure, but I’ll say now this has a high probability to be the Northeast Hurricane that all the weather enthusiasts up there have been waiting for. Isn’t it moving a bit too slow for that though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Lots to talk about the recent 12z GFS run. This is MDL - Main Development Low ::: Mason Dixon Line is similar but call it this way - no problemo... It is a line that tells how far a TC needs to go to potentially affect Central NJ works for Nor'Easters as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 What's the best website to track live hurricane data, winds etc, if such site exists? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 This originated from 'weeniepatrol' on Storm2K, but I can't resist it being here . . . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 27 minutes ago, David-LI said: What's the best website to track live hurricane data, winds etc, if such site exists? TropicalTidbits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, turtlehurricane said: GFS keeps shifting west. Last night it was eastern New England, today New York City. In a couple more days we will know for sure, but I’ll say now this has a high probability to be the Northeast Hurricane that all the weather enthusiasts up there have been waiting for. You need a fast moving hurricane traveling over 20mph to do that lol. since its going to be a slow mover its going to spend too much time over cold water that can't sustain anything super strong. it definitely could be new englands first hurricane in 30 years but not anything like the cat 3's that have struck it if it's slow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 18Location: 29.9°N 67.6°WMoving: W at 9 mphMin pressure: 995 mbMax sustained: 70 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 56 minutes ago, WeatherAU said: Lots to talk about the recent 12z GFS run. This is MDL - Main Development Low ::: Mason Dixon Line is similar but call it this way - no problemo... It is a line that tells how far a TC needs to go to potentially affect Central NJ works for Nor'Easters as well Stop posting crap 12 2 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 19 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: You need a fast moving hurricane traveling over 20mph to do that lol. since its going to be a slow mover its going to spend too much time over cold water that can't sustain anything super strong. it definitely could be new englands first hurricane in 30 years but not anything like the cat 3's that have struck it if it's slow 21 hours ago, MattPetrulli said: Clear trend on last few GFS runs to the west with a faster storm You are correct concerning the wind threat, which is what most weenies crave. The coastal flooding and precip of course could be higher end, even historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: You are correct concerning the wind threat, which is what most weenies crave. The coastal flooding and precip of course could be higher end, even historic Yeah the surge and flooding could be bad. The thing that worries me is a ton of people there have never experienced a hurricane in their lives because Bob was 30 years ago. I doubt there's a lot who even know what to do in case of a hurricane right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Friends take a look at this BLOB as well ... Henri could pass over this region! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, WeatherAU said: Friends take a look at this BLOB as well ... Henri could pass over this region! That would be the Gulf Stream currently though the models do not show Henri getting that far west if so it would be a very close call for most of the East Coast Outer Banks to New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 32 minutes ago, WeatherAU said: Friends take a look at this BLOB as well ... Henri could pass over this region! He is not forecast to get near this. Closest approach is about 250 miles from Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: He is not forecast to get near this. Closest approach is about 250 miles from Cape Hatteras. Yeah the center probably won't get that far west. Regardless SST's easily support a major hurricane east of that rocket fuel and the western edge of the storm should be over that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 When will they be able to fly in to Henri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I regret opening this thread. Wowzers. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 5 hours ago, turtlehurricane said: GFS keeps shifting west. Last night it was eastern New England, today New York City. In a couple more days we will know for sure, but I’ll say now this has a high probability to be the Northeast Hurricane that all the weather enthusiasts up there have been waiting for. My chase of Fred was a bust, however your post has me on high alert . This has all the potential to be worse than Sandy. Going to begin enacting our family evacuation plans tomorrow if these trends continue. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Looks to be trying to form a primative eyewall. Still not quite there, but whether it can hold off from shear and complete itself over the next 36 hours is crucial to it's eventual track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: My chase of Fred was a bust, however your post has me on high alert . This has all the potential to be worse than Sandy. Going to begin enacting our family evacuation plans tomorrow if these trends continue. You’re funny. Obviously not serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 A worthwhile thread to read. Tomer is a maven with modeling and analysis: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Shear becoming apparent on the northern edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I know it's the nam and it's not a tropical model but the 3k is a noticable SW shift so far versus 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 0Z UKMET: more ominous run for CT/RI/inland MA as it goes NNW to near RI/CT border and then continued NNW into west central MA TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 68.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 19.08.2021 0 29.7N 68.2W 999 50 1200UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.5N 70.6W 984 64 0000UTC 20.08.2021 24 29.4N 72.7W 978 74 1200UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.7N 74.3W 977 66 0000UTC 21.08.2021 48 30.6N 74.7W 974 73 1200UTC 21.08.2021 60 32.7N 73.9W 967 79 0000UTC 22.08.2021 72 36.1N 72.4W 958 85 1200UTC 22.08.2021 84 39.9N 71.5W 958 81 0000UTC 23.08.2021 96 42.0N 72.0W 984 44 (CT/MA border) 1200UTC 23.08.2021 108 43.0N 72.4W 1001 25 0000UTC 24.08.2021 120 43.2N 71.8W 1005 19 1200UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.8N 69.4W 1007 19 0000UTC 25.08.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 And here is a 0Z UKMET image: Henri is then moving NNW as it just misses the far eastern tip of Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I got the vibe from the 11pm discussion that the NHC ain't buying a New England landfall yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I got the vibe from the 11pm discussion that the NHC ain't buying a New England landfall yet. I actually think it'll end up further west. Potentially over LI. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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