Hurricane Henri

[MJO812]

Gfs is alot stronger than  the 6z run

[MJO812]

Looks like Ukie is also stronger and further west than 0z

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like Ukie is also stronger and further west than 0z

That site is good for quick panels but use pivotal or another site for higher resolution. It’s a heck of a low off the coast verbatim.

 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That site is good for quick panels but use pivotal or another site for higher resolution. It’s a heck of a low off the coast verbatim.

 

True 

I usually pay for the models especially during the winter .

[Tezeta]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

True 

I usually pay for the models especially during the winter .

Never donated, never subbed, stolen laptop, neighbors wifi. 

anyways, henri is looking like a recurve. Has any good east coast storm ever started where it did? 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Never donated, never subbed, stolen laptop, neighbors wifi. 

anyways, henri is looking like a recurve. Has any good east coast storm ever started where it did? 

Not 100 percent sure 

[Newman]

[olafminesaw]

11 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

 

anyways, henri is looking like a recurve. Has any good east coast storm ever started where it did? 

Looking on the NOAA database at storms within 100 miles of it's current position, there are hardly any that made east coast landfalls. The only ones that did, north of Florida were

1933 hurricane (the strongest one)

Ginger (1971)

Hermine (2004) (probably the only one that could be a plausible track)

 

[WxWatcher007]

Henri has an excellent presentation on both visible and radar. Radar shows a nearly fully developed eyewall, though it's hard to be 100% sure without recon confirming it's not a mid level feature. 

[Newman]

Latest 12z EPS spaghetti plots for Henri, continues to trend a bit further west. Some members are even trying to hook back west. At the minimum, lots of rough surf along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. The Euro camp seems to be on the weaker side of most guidance as of now, compared to the other global models and the hurricane models.

[Newman]

[WxWatcher007]

65mph/997mb at 5pm

Now expected to become a hurricane by the NHC 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

Henri appears to be gaining strength.  Satellite images show banding 
features becoming increasingly curved, especially on the east side 
of the system, and an eye feature has been occasionally seen in 
radar images from Bermuda.  The upper-level outflow is also well 
established to the north and east of the center.  The center itself 
is estimated to be located near the western edge of the convection, 
but it is possible that a new center is forming farther east.  The 
initial intensity is raised to 55 kt following the Dvorak 
classification from TAFB.  The initial wind radii has been expanded 
outward based on an earlier ASCAT pass.

The tropical storm appears to have slowed down, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 255/2 kt.  A subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of Henri, and
this feature should steer the storm westward at a slightly faster
pace during the next two to three days.  After that time, the ridge
is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a cut off low or
negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast U.S.  This
change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn
northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the
72-120 h period.  There is a fair amount of spread in exactly when
and where Henri makes this turn and the GFS and EC ensembles have
some members not far offshore of New England and Atlantic Canada.
Overall, the guidance has shifted westward again this cycle, and the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly from days 3 to 5.

The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is subsiding, 
which should allow the storm to gain a little more strength tonight. 
However, a round of moderate northerly shear is expected to setup 
over Henri on Wednesday and Thursday and that will likely 
temporarily end the opportunity for strengthening.  Although this 
shear would typically cause some weakening, the combination of warm 
SSTs and increasing mid-level moisture could offset the negative 
influences of the shear.  By Friday and over the weekend, the shear 
is expected to lessen again and since the other environmental 
factors are predicted to remain favorable for the storm, 
strengthening is shown from days 3-5.  This forecast is above the 
previous one, and lies fairly close to the middle of the guidance 
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 30.4N  64.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 30.3N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 30.2N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 30.2N  68.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 30.3N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  20/0600Z 31.0N  71.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 32.0N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 35.5N  69.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 39.1N  65.2W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[MattPetrulli]

Clear trend on last few GFS runs to the west with a faster storm

[MattPetrulli]

5 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

Clear trend on last few GFS runs to the west with a faster storm

West trend continues on 00z and we got a LF 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

West trend continues on 00z and we got a LF 

This run was way stronger than 18z

[Kevin Reilly]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This run was way stronger than 18z

Yikes 970 mb wow this is still 4.5 to 5 days out too that’s an eternity in the tropics when it comes to track and intensity.  A troubling item also that’s there is no strong front trough coming to the East coast actually the WAR builds west on this run.

[shaggy]

26 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

West trend continues on 00z and we got a LF 

The stop and recurve occuree roughly 75 miles SW of where it did at 18z. While not huge that's not insignificant and a few more of those and the OBX can come back into play.

[MJO812]

Ukie

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie

Looks like that came a smidge west too 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Looks like that came a smidge west too 

Yes and stronger 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Looks like that came a smidge west too 

Yeah, it’s a bit west from 12z. All the major global guidance so far and the GEFS shifted west tonight. Doesn’t mean it’ll stay that way, but it’s definitely intriguing. 

[WxWatcher007]

Euro is not even in the same ballpark as the other guidance. It could be right, as shear should increase again in the next 24 hours or so per NHC, but it’s curious that it has no interest in intensifying Henri when it’s actually in a favorable environment and quite frankly has done well in the face of prior shear in a less organized state. 

We’ll see what the ensembles say and what Henri looks like later this morning but the presentation is excellent on IR and radar once again tonight with a nice convective blowup over the center and at least a mid level eye on radar. 

[WxWatcher007]

For the few EPS members that don’t kill off Henri, the trend is west as well. 

[Tatamy]

Next Full moon is Sunday 8/22.  The track and timing of this storm are going to have coastal flooding impacts to the mid Atlantic region and northeast.

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
500 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021

There's been little change in Henri's satellite appearance this 
morning. The surface center is still located just to the northwest 
of a gradually expanding central dense overcast, and there still 
appears to be an eye-like feature in the Bermuda Doppler radar 
presentation.  However, there are no indications in the GOES-16 
BD-curve enhanced infrared images of a developing warm spot. 
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain 
steady, and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this 
advisory.

Although the surrounding thermodynamic environment is ripe for 
further significant development, moderate northwesterly shear 
continues to impinge on the cyclone causing difficulty in inner-core 
convective development. Consequently, little change in strength is 
expected during the next couple days, and in fact the statistical 
SHIPS model indicates an increase in a more northerly shear 
component on Thursday.  By Saturday afternoon, however, the shear 
should decrease as the cyclone slides beneath an upper ridge axis 
off of the southeast U.S. coast.  Henri is expected to further 
intensity through the remaining period as the upper-wind flow 
becomes much more diffluent.  The official intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the SHIPS model 
and the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach aid after the 60-hour 
period.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/7 kt.  A high 
amplitude mid- to upper-level anticyclone situated north-northeast 
of Henri should steer the cyclone toward the west during the next 36 
hours, or so.  Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge is forecast to
weaken and shift eastward in response to a mid-latitude shortwave 
trough moving over the northeastern U.S.  As a result of the change 
in the synoptic steering pattern, Henri should turn toward the 
northwest, north, and then northeast through the remaining portion 
of the forecast. With so much uncertainty or spread in the global 
and regional models beyond day 3, the best approach at this point is 
to base the NHC forecast on the better performing multi-model 
consensus guidance, which has once again shifted a bit to the left 
of the previous track forecast.  I think it's worth noting that the 
GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over 
eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward 
toward the New England coast.  Therefore, additional changes or 
shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on 
subsequent advisories.

Due to the increased uncertainty in the track forecast, interests 
along the New England coast should monitor the progress of Henri.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 30.1N  65.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 29.9N  66.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 29.8N  68.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 29.8N  70.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 30.4N  71.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  20/1800Z 31.4N  72.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 33.0N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  22/0600Z 37.6N  69.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  23/0600Z 40.5N  66.1W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[TheDreamTraveler]

6z also showing landfall like 0z. it actually has the pressure in the 960s right before that

 

[WxWatcher007]

Trend west continues from what I've seen so far this morning. Definitely become less of a long shot and more of a legitimate threat to the northeast given the 500mb look. A long way to go though.  

[MJO812]

6z hmon

[MJO812]

Hmon right into NYC harbor