Major Hurricane Grace

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

If one just looks as Euro ensemble tracks, it looks scary Mexico to Louisiana, but only about 10 perturbations are below 1000 mb, or ensembles support the op.

[Dbullsfan22]

2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I'm missing context.  Are some people giving a bit of attitude to a red tagger?  (I was around 10 years ago when someone from Brooklyn was considered over-enthusiastic about Winter storms.  I had a 5 year zero post limit, but now I am back strictly for the weather.)

Maybe I’m not qualified to comment on this but as a lurker for quite awhile, the wishcasting with no visable positive evidence Turtle has shown these last 2 storms has been a bit excessive. Red tag or no red tag I don’t see a reason not to call him out on it, especially considering neither of these storms are anywhere close to deserving of storm mode status 

[rclab]

4 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

Maybe I’m not qualified to comment on this but as a lurker for quite awhile, the wishcasting with no visable positive evidence Turtle has shown these last 2 storms has been a bit excessive. Red tag or no red tag I don’t see a reason not to call him out on it, especially considering neither of these storms are anywhere close to deserving of storm mode status 

Good evening Dbf22. I do understand your position/point. Sometimes there’s a throw out to get a react discussion going. You should visit the NYC forum and sample some of forky’s red tag lures. As always …..

[Dbullsfan22]

Yeah, I probably got suckered in, and Turtle has been around longer than when I started reading here probably 5-6 years ago (had to change accounts lost my info) and is a valuable member of this community and probably knows a million times more about meteorology than I could ever. That being said doesn’t change my thoughts on the wishcasting this week. Maybe he truly believed what he was saying but when you do see a red tag saying things that seem so off base with what everyone else is saying it really draws attention to it. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Obligatory I think it’s an eye comment

[WEATHER53]

This site was not created by nor for Red tags.  They are as contributory as anyone else and are equally qualified for rebuke. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

17N, 68W, there is a very weak closed low, 1011 mb.  Strongest winds (near TS at flight level) well removed Northeast in the convection.

[WxWatcher007]

This is an open discussion IMO. Red tag or not your analytical posts should have a basis in fact/observation. I don’t think anyone should be above critique. How else would we learn anything?

Anyway, recon is finally finding a LLC, albeit weak. 

[WxWatcher007]

Diving deeper into recon—I’m not sure if the NHC does anything at 8pm as they may want to make sure this isn’t a blip, but recon data suggests this is a TS with a closed LLC and multiple uncontaminated FL and SFMR reports confirming minimal TS winds. 

[turtlehurricane]

Gosh, huge convective blowup over the region that got the Earthquake. The start of days of torrential & life-threatening rain. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Antilles-14-12-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It seems the convective blowup north of the Greater Antilles has lost organization, southern center has taken over. Therefore, the small probability that this would re-form north of Hispaniola is evaporating. It could still be a big deal in the Gulf of Mexico (or nothing at all, it could die), but either way, this doesn't look to be anything for Florida, not even as much as Fred. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

More unsupported fun and frolics from the HWRF...

[Tezeta]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

This site was not created by nor for Red tags.  They are as contributory as anyone else and are equally qualified for rebuke. 

I think they should get the default benefit of the doubt because they have a degree in it, unlike the people who just dally with it. 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is an open discussion IMO. Red tag or not your analytical posts should have a basis in fact/observation. I don’t think anyone should be above critique. How else would we learn anything?

Anyway, recon is finally finding a LLC, albeit weak. 

The idea was to have a hobbyist site where information could be shared, discussions conducted.  Many of us had been at TWC and Wright and Accuweather but there was a desire for a site of our own so to speak. I never got fully involved so there are 3/4 on here who ran and run the show and can add more. 
 

[hawkeye_wx]

It appears the models have unanimously gone to the southern route for Grace... a date with the Yucatan and then deep in mainland Mexico.  So far, Grace has refused to gain latitude.  It could even sneak mostly south of Hispaniola.

[WxWatcher007]

What an incredible turn of events in the last 48 hours for Grace. When the weekend started I never imagined I'd be starting my Monday looking at a potential Mexico landfall and Grace avoiding virtually all land until then. 

[WxWatcher007]

Grace is looking a good bit better on recon so far this morning. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What an incredible turn of events in the last 48 hours for Grace. When the weekend started I never imagined I'd be starting my Monday looking at a potential Mexico landfall and Grace avoiding virtually all land until then. 

And now watching the low off the east coast. Weather is amazing.

[WxWatcher007]

VDM from recon. 

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 12:40Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Name: Grace
Storm Number & Year: 07 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 12:09:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.57N 70.82W
B. Center Fix Location: 86 statute miles (139 km) to the SW (223°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 749m (2,457ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 37kts (42.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ESE (106°) of center fix at 11:58:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 158° at 38kts (From the SSE at 43.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (108°) of center fix at 11:58:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 37kts (42.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 4 nautical miles to the W (261°) of center fix at 12:07:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 332° at 36kts (From the NNW at 41.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix at 12:16:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 740m (2,428ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (108°) from the flight level center at 11:58:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

[qg_omega]

Thoughts on Tulum and Grace, have friend leaving Thursday for Tulum

[Floydbuster]

I think it's safe to assume Mexico, now the question becomes how strong does Grace get?

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I think it's safe to assume Mexico, now the question becomes how strong does Grace get?

It’s still incredible to me that we went from a possible S FL hit to possible Bay of Campeche hit in two days. 

[Floydbuster]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s still incredible to me that we went from a possible S FL hit to possible Bay of Campeche hit in two days. 

When in doubt...take the southern route.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Looking at 1004 mb low on govt. GEFS site, a lot of clustering for 5 days away.  All the models seem locked in on Mexico now. OT- at 5 days, random lows start appearing off the SE USA.  Could be 08L, but nothing on 6Z GEFS from TT shows any members getting that far SW.  Maybe someone was right, and the Northern piece of what was 95L tries to develop.

[JakkelWx]

Grace is really getting her act together on visible and IR satellite.

[wxmx]

Especially in the middle of August

3 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

When in doubt...take the southern route.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

As expected, intensity guidance has really increased this cycle. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Looking at 1004 mb low on govt. GEFS site, a lot of clustering for 5 days away.  All the models seem locked in on Mexico now. OT- at 5 days, random lows start appearing off the SE USA.  Could be 08L, but nothing on 6Z GEFS from TT shows any members getting that far SW.  Maybe someone was right, and the Northern piece of what was 95L tries to develop.

NVM.  Those are 08D/Henri per 12Z GEFS.  Per Twitter, COVID will not stop iCyclone chasing in Mexico.

[hlcater]

Curious to see how Grace interacts with this lee cyclone off the tip of the Haitian peninsula. Genuinely not sure what this sort of interaction might entail.

 

[Windspeed]

Curious to see how Grace interacts with this lee cyclone off the tip of the Haitian peninsula. Genuinely not sure what this sort of interaction might entail.

 

Dennis is probably the most recent example of near-to path south of the Tiburon Peninsula that continued to intensify. Of course, Dennis was already a hurricane.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

HWRF has seemed to have a high bias. GFS shear at this point is under 4 m/s, about 10 mph.  I think it is possible.