hlcater Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Grace's pressure is 992mb on the extrap just offshore of the Yucatan. Also considerably lower than the NHC current estimate of 999. Surface winds are stronger too with 55kts in the NE quad, where as the NHC has winds pegged at 45kts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Surprising errors for a system in our back yard. Helps understand the Ukie failure to initialize Henry correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 hours ago, Prospero said: Best eyes of the year last year were the ones that pounded the Yucatan coast. Couple out in the Atlantic that we watched as well. But the ones that came in late season were very impressive and were devastating to that area. Laura 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 LauraYes. Laura had an awesome eye during the 24 hours leading up to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 The GFS is showing a huge precip donut forming around Grace 12hrs before landfall. Likely means rapid intensification up until landfall despite a bit of northerly shear. Possible that it becomes the first major of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Grace has some nice convection on its eastern half. But the western half has very little right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 hours ago, Windspeed said: 7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Laura Yes. Laura had an awesome eye during the 24 hours leading up to landfall. It did. Zeta and Eta had more impressive perfect eyes as it approached the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Grace has deep convection expanding about its northern semicircle. Recon may find a hurricane again by the time it gets there this morning. It has enough time to undergo some significant intensification today, but it will need to wrap that deeper convection around the southern periphery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Per recon, definitely a hurricane again... 983 mb 92 kts flight level wind 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Also, recon found that Grace has reorganized its core and that it is contained within the deepest convection. The convection just hasn't expanded much to the south. Still, Grace is in a more favorable environment than pre Yucatán it seems. Also a mid-level eye feature looks to be forming where recon found the low-level vorticity maximum. Have to watch that closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Impressive convection but the structure is taking on a shape that doesn't look conducive for rapid intensification. At least for now. Unless that improves, despite the cold cloudtop signatures, slow strengthening is on the menu into landfall. Good shot at a at solid Category 2 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1000mb?? Hurricane winds way out on the periphery? Did I miss a memo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Grace is beginning to encircle the center with convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Grace is beginning to encircle the center with convection. And right on cue. The last 12 hours up to landfall were the ones that we expected Grace would intensify more aggressively and we are near that threshold. We needed a hurricane that looked like one, and it's taking that look now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1000mb?? Hurricane winds way out on the periphery? Did I miss a memo?You misfired, sir. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 And right on cue. The last 12 hours up to landfall were the ones that we expected Grace would intensify more aggressively and we are near that threshold. We needed a hurricane that looked like one, and it's taking that look now.Yeah, Grace has never been graceful with respect to symmetry, much less an eye. That may be about to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Chinook said: 1000mb?? Hurricane winds way out on the periphery? Did I miss a memo? The name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 980 mb, should be final recon pass for now. I'm not sure they'll even send another plane down there given how close it is to landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Looking at the IR, it appears the QPF bomb is detonating 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Holy moly that last frame on the IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Amped said: Looking at the IR, it appears the QPF bomb is detonating 21 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Holy moly that last frame on the IR. Yes, now I have this image in my mind 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 41 minutes ago, wxmx said: Yes, now I have this image in my mind That's what it's going to look like too after landfall once it hits those mountains. The disintegration of Karl was pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, Scott747 said: That's what it's going to look like too after landfall once it hits those mountains. The disintegration of Karl was pretty amazing. Yeah, no cyclone is match to the Sierra Madre. The bigger and meaner, the more dramatic the fall. Only thing is all it's juice is squeezed out, causing mudslides and extensive flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Diana 1990 and Gert 1993 are possible analogs to strength and landfall location. They both caused record flooding in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Shear has abated some, to around 10-15 kts. Looks like it gained a bit of latitude during the convective explosion, but not much. Now looks like Tecolutla may be ground zero. If trends continue we can speculate on a major at landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 One final recon plane is now en route. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 50/50 on whether the eye forms prior to landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Amped said: 50/50 on whether the eye forms prior to landfall Looks like there is a window of time before landfall. Convection looks strong. I'm ready backwards on posts to catch up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Amped said: 50/50 on whether the eye forms prior to landfall Hopefully before sunset. Would be a very photogenic image of Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmx said: Hopefully before sunset. Would be a very photogenic image of Grace Is anybody there to take photos in Mexico? Or are you talking about visible sats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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