Major Hurricane Grace

[WxWatcher007]

We've been watching for a few days now but the organization of Invest 95L has improved today, moving the NHC to increase 5-day development odds to 70%. 

 

Like Elsa and Fred, 95L is projected to follow a similar path, though there is still (obviously) a lot to be resolved with regard to eventual path and intensity. Given the steering pattern, this could be a threat to the Greater Antilles this weekend and the US as early as next week.  

Time to track with a separate thread. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Fred, located about 105 miles west of Great Inagua, 
Bahamas.

1. Satellite-derived wind data from this morning indicated that a 
small area of low pressure has developed along a tropical wave 
about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  However, the low 
does not quite have a closed circulation, and the associated shower 
and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the 
weekend while moving generally westward at about 20 mph across the 
tropical Atlantic.  This system is expected to reach portions of the 
Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and interests there 
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[NorthHillsWx]

Glad there’s something else to track already. Thought for a second Fred would be interesting, but he decided to commit suicide in the mountains. 95L had had “that look” for a couple days. 

[OKwx_2001]

GFS turns this into a massive major that hits NC. Peaks at 940 mb before it gets there

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

GFS turns this into a massive major that hits NC. Peaks at 940 mb before it gets there

Yeah 95L could have some legs.

[ldub23]

The Euro isnt showing anything. Cant find the  06 gfs  to see if it still shows anything. At  least something  is showing  on a  model.

[WxWatcher007]

Could see advisories later today…

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Fred, located near the north-central coast of Cuba.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized 
since yesterday near an area of low pressure located about 850 
miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  Environmental conditions are 
becoming more conducive for additional development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form over the next day or two while moving 
toward the west or west-northwest at about 20 mph.  This system is 
expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands Saturday night 
and then the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday and Sunday night. 
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or 
tonight for portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and 
Puerto Rico, since strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely to 
spread across those areas over the weekend, regardless of the 
system's development.  Interests in these areas should continue to 
monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[GreekWeatherGod95]

7 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said:

GFS turns this into a massive major that hits NC. Peaks at 940 mb before it gets there

Lordy Jesus 

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, GreekWeatherGod95 said:

Lordy Jesus 

6z has it again

 

[DownS.EasternVa]

This system has potential its looking pretty good on satellite, outflow looks to be much improved too. It also has potential to miss the islands to the north calling it now this system will be a beauty. 

[Windspeed]

Please take these maps with a grain of salt. The rapid intensification of what would potentially be Grace off the SE coast is a result of a very dynamic and favorable upper environment that the GFS evolves around 200 hrs. Again, this is way too far out and therefore this may not pan out at all. But obviously that's some crazy ventilation on the backside of a TC that bends back to the NW late in the run. No wonder the GFS is bombing out the hurricane into landfall.

[turtlehurricane]

GFS has a Floyd/Dorian scenario, where it comes right up to the SE FL coast as a hurricane and then turns hard to the north. Those are the worst, I'd rather this storm just dissipate now so I don't have to go through such a tease. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

The Euro isnt showing anything. Cant find the  06 gfs  to see if it still shows anything. At  least something  is showing  on a  model.

06z GFS is a weak system into the SE US.  

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

06z GFS is a weak system into the SE US.  

956 is weak ?

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

GFS has a Floyd/Dorian scenario, where it comes right up to the SE FL coast as a hurricane and then turns hard to the north. Those are the worst, I'd rather this storm just dissipate now so I don't have to go through such a tease. 

The coast should be on the lookout as we head into late this month with the Bermuda High setting up shop.

[jconsor]

These convective differences between models at initialization/very short-term quickly grow upscale (with time). These discrepancies likely have a significant impact on how strong of a system EPS and GEFS are showing down the road for 95L, in addition to the differences in the operational runs.

Note that the models have switched places since yesterday (when tweet from Eric Webb below was written), with GFS now more convectively active while the ECMWF is more anemic.

GFS has tended to handle relatively small systems developing in the monsoon trough or ITCZ better than the ECMWF in the past few years- for example, Beryl 2018, Dorian 2019, Gonzalo 2020 and Elsa this year in their genesis phase.

https://www.twitter.com/yconsor/status/1426169852050526208

https://www.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425706495191126021

 

 

[Seminole]

12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Please take these maps with a grain of salt. The rapid intensification of what would potentially be Grace off the SE coast is a result of a very dynamic and favorable upper environment that the GFS evolves around 200 hrs. Again, this is way too far out and therefore this may not pan out at all. But obviously that's some crazy ventilation on the backside of a TC that bends back to the NW late in the run. No wonder the GFS is bombing out the hurricane into landfall.

Hurricane David 1979 Hurricane David

[shaggy]

Take away for me right now is that there's a strong signal for a TC in the danger zone of the southwest Atlantic. Details beyond that are pointless at this time frame. 

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Take away for me right now is that there's a strong signal for a TC in the danger zone of the southwest Atlantic. Details beyond that are pointless at this time frame. 

100%

I think this has a high ceiling if it avoids the Fred route, but there’s a lot to sort out still.

I do think we see a PTC designation later today, especially if that new convective burst upshear can hold. 
 

Edit: welp  

[Wannabehippie]

9 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said:

GFS turns this into a massive major that hits NC. Peaks at 940 mb before it gets there

That is 11 days out. Lots of time for path, intensity predictions to change. Let me know when it has this within 5 days.

[WxWatcher007]

[LawdogGRNJ]

Much of the path will still be saturated from Fred.  Flooding will be a major issue, regardless of strength.

[crossbowftw3]

Certainly a signal exists for 95L to be within that proverbial danger zone for TCs, whether or not it’s a strong TC in 8-10 days time is up for debate.

[Windspeed]

[shaggy]

Icon looking Frances/Jeanne like so far just weaker than those storms. 

[Stormfly]

2 hours ago, Seminole said:

Hurricane David 1979 Hurricane David

Have fond memories of that one.

Washed out a bridge on our land we used for moving equipment into the woods.  Had to widen the banks and pour concrete pilings.

That little creek (about 8' wide normally) swelled up to over 300' wide and the amount of backwash and tree fall from root erosion was incredible.  It was breezy enough to cause annoying power outages too.

We could use the rain up here in NE MD but not three months worth in a day or two!

[ldub23]

12 GFS much weaker. See  if Euro shows anything.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

12 GFS much weaker. See  if Euro shows anything.

Still way out there to worry about it 

[thunderbolt]

My humble opinion is once the eastern Pacific calms down then the Atlantic will ramp up but until then Crickets

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Still way out there to worry about it 

Gfs doesn't develop the next storm after Fred. Icon has a sub 1000 low east of Florida  

[ldub23]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs doesn't develop the next storm after Fred. Icon has a sub 1000 low east of Florida  

Yea  GFS dropped  it. If  this  is  MJO phase 2 its  not  doing much.