Fred: Remnants (moisture and possible squalls?). Does it impact our area Aug 17-21, 2021?

[wdrag]

Have started a low confidence thread since the impacts could be significant for part of our area.  Ensembles imply that whatever the remnants of Fred,  they track northward into the eastern USA with its own PWAT blob and potential for squally gusts of 30-40 knots passing into our very close to our area PA/NJ/LI southward to the Delmarva during the middle or end of next week.

Indirectly and of interest to me is that the seeming evolving pattern will have a separate moisture blob somewhere in VA-MD, parked there by the Saturday morning CFP in our NYC subforum. That separate blob of moisture, I think, has a good chance of being pushed northward, into our area early next week, well ahead of the Fred remnants. IFFFFF, we get both blobs of RH overriding the northward drifting warm front, I think we'd be talking over 5" of rain somewhere in the mid Atlantic states.  

So at this early early stage as my own heads up: Do we see only the advance frontal moisture arrive next week, or do we receive leftover Fred moisture (possibly two fairly large rain events)?

Added 00z/12 deterministic single member EC PWAT for early next week showing northward advancing moisture pools. 

[wdrag]

See no reason to be dissapointed in the evolving pattern and progress of PWAT pools (near the oncoming CFP, and then ahead of remnant Fred).

722A/13

[wdrag]

12z/13 EC cycle suggests 850 VT curls n-ne-e across NJ on the 20th.  PW comes up in two batches,  the first with weekend pooling over the Delmarva, the second with Freddie remnants. We shall see if lift provides some yield of the potential double dose middle of next week

[wdrag]

As of the 00z/15 cycle...looks like the two PW pools will advance newd across the NYC subforum by Fri night, with spotty big qpf, and as per WPC now,  1/2-1.25" general. Worthy of monitoring.  Have a good Sunday!

[wdrag]

Some guidance on Fred remains.  This thread remains viable for spotty 5+ by Fri night. 

 

Added 00z/16 EC EPS 850 wind showing a nice pocket of convergence southerly flow near LI Thursday,  also the 09z/16 EC OP with two PW pools near 2". One approaching NYC Tue-Tue night and the second Fred infusion 24 hours aft, which arrives Thu and only slowly departs Fri or Sat. Also added the 00z/16 EC OP 850Vort, which shows a sewd extending lobe from possible decaying FRED 850 MB center near BFD later THU, down to nw NJ. Going to rain.  How much and where...please follow NWS WPC which now had 1.5" in the western part of subforum by Fri eve.

[jets]

Be interesting to also see what happens with TD 8

[gravitylover]

See what ya can do to keep Citi Field dry on Friday evening. Thanx 

[wdrag]

Just taking one at a time... added excessive rain POTENTIAL outlook for tomorrow.

 

 

[Rtd208]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

Some guidance on Fred remains.  This thread remains viable for spotty 5+ by Fri night. 

 

Added 00z/16 EC EPS 850 wind showing a nice pocket of convergence southerly flow near LI Thursday,  also the 09z/16 EC OP with two PW pools near 2". One approaching NYC Tue-Tue night and the second Fred infusion 24 hours aft, which arrives Thu and only slowly departs Fri or Sat. Also added the 00z/16 EC OP 850Vort, which shows a sewd extending lobe from possible decaying FRED 850 MB center near BFD later THU, down to nw NJ. Going to rain.  How much and where...please follow NWS WPC which now had 1.5" in the western part of subforum by Fri eve.

It appears most of the heavy rain stays to our west at least according to the NAM/GFS. Eventually some of the heavier rain does move further east into the NYC metro. 

[wdrag]

Well, I think we now know Fred remnant moisture and potential for squalls, will cross our area, Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Iso 5+ probably west of our subforum. Gusts are modeled by the 12z/17 EC, HRRR and HRRX of 25-35 kt (have seen iso 40+ but in the Poconos,  sometime later Wednesday night> SPC as of this afternoon has a marginal risk for us.  No big deal but it is decaying TC (Fred) related.  The first shot of heavy qpf (Tuesday) apparently will have occurred n DE/s PHL area and spotty elsewhere e PA, which also reduces potential for iso 5+ in our subforum. 329P/17

 

[hudsonvalley21]

Upton’s HWO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
404 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-182015-
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
404 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Locally heavy rainfall from the remnants of Fred may bring localized
flash flooding Wednesday night into Thursday morning. An isolated
tornado is also possible.

 

[crossbowftw3]

Still looks reasonably good for a quick 1-2” here in Sullivan tonight with the heavier amounts likely to remain NW of here. 

[Tatamy]

Tornado watch issued for much of eastern Pennsylvania.

[forkyfork]

radar looks better for the metro than i expected. the line is south of most model forecasts

[SRRTA22]

16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

radar looks better for the metro than i expected. the line is south of most model forecasts

Though mundane, wind gusts are stronger than i thought they'd be.  ~25-30g right now.

 

 

[forkyfork]

at least 2" and counting at my air bnb in east stroudsburg

[SRRTA22]

Color me a weenie but im quite impressed by ex fred

[SRRTA22]

Currently awaiting the line

[wdrag]

Thanks for keeping this going .. was on vacation Ocean City MD Sat-yesterday.  Will add summaries of Co CoRahs and LSR's this eve.  Lots of catch up here.  Had a welcome 1.06" here in this part of Wantage NJ. 

[SRRTA22]

Multiple late night TOR warnings. To see a storm like this at 3am....in NEW JERSEY?

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.52" of rain so far today.

 

[STORMANLI]

0 06"

[gravitylover]

Average of the stations on my hill is 1.9" since midnight. 

[FPizz]

.82"

[doncat]

Did get clipped by Fred's tail end overnight with 0.56".

[wdrag]

Well, Fred did come up through the ne USA with spotty 4-5" rains in e PA, lso n Central CT with little or no rain se of I95.  Iso svr occurred last night in our area with best SVR apparently just w in e PA including an EF1.  So my short summary includes: CoCoRaHs 1 day  in the CT part of our subforum (I know most think HFD belongs to the New Eng group but our subforum map includes up to the CT RVR).   Plus the 1 day Radar-sensor totals that are smoothed. Please use the Legend for amounts.