Chicago Storm Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 There's a well-defined MCV/shortwave over western IA that the RAP has adequately analyzed. That will easily promote development across the area this afternoon. Seems like the 12Z models all have a similar evolution but with significant timing differences. You just beat me to it. Was just about to rag on the SPC (per usual) for saying there was no “overt” MCV.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Kind of unusual for us to start off an expected severe weather day with this much full sunshine in this neck of the woods. Of course, northern IL was socked in until early afternoon yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 It won't take much today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 14Z HRRR just got a bit more interesting locally around 00Z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Think the spc should expand the enhanced risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 ORD @ 84/78 real soup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 15Z HRRR back to showing a near total bust across southern WI before dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 SPC no help with zero change at 1630. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 not understanding this portion of 1630Z update, they trimmed it yet says they expanded it.... Given the aforementioned possibilities of more than one storm cluster and the area of large to extreme CAPE, have expanded the higher damaging wind probabilities farther south into MO/IL 1630Z Previous 1300Z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Drinking on the job? Maybe the bulk of the last few A/M/Js broke them and they weren't prepared for the return of an actual, sustained severe weather pattern in August. I know I wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 ILX will do a 19Z sounding today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Some of the most extreme instability I've seen in my area in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 I have to go mow in this crap. 3" of rain yesterday and the possibility of even more the next few days I can't wait until Friday like I had hoped. 89/78 for a 103 index, ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
therock Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 The air has that feel today- 89/80/106 at KDEC. Juiced to the max, garage concrete is sweating. Yet to be seen what that translates into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Really watch eastern half of Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 The HRRR is trash. Look at the spreads it’s cranking out. 97/67? Lol nah. Let’s try 91/78. Based on obs, that’s where we’re heading 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, hlcater said: The HRRR is trash. Look at the spreads it’s cranking out. 97/67? Lol nah. Let’s try 91/78. Based on obs, that’s where we’re heading That would explain its perplexing lack of convection for most of the afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 looks like things percolating in iowa now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, hlcater said: The HRRR is trash. Look at the spreads it’s cranking out. 97/67? Lol nah. Let’s try 91/78. Based on obs, that’s where we’re heading I did not realize the HRRR was crashing the dewpoint this afternoon. I wonder why it would do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: looks like things percolating in iowa now The MCV/wave is now evident in the DSM region on vis sat. Have already had development on the southern flank well south of DSM, and now are seeing the real show getting going in NE IA, which should unzip down to I-80 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I did not realize the HRRR was crashing the dewpoint this afternoon. I wonder why it would do that. Overmixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Storms taking shape nicely north of 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Watch expansion to the east is gonna be needed soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 looking solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 SPC ENH risk looks perfectly placed across WI/IL... ...for once. (Thought I wasn't gonna take a shot, eh?) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 How are things looking gang? What's with the strange silence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Garden variety+ hopefully good light show 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 The storm that blew up right overhead a bit ago started putting out nice CGs before there was any rain shaft visible. Pretty kewl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The storm that blew up right overhead a bit ago started putting out nice CGs before there was any rain shaft visible. Pretty kewl. Love when that happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now