andyhb Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Those hodographs blended with stout low level buoyancy are going to be a problem if we get at least transient supercell structures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Flooding probably going to be newsworthy in addition to the severe threat. Radar estimating some 3" totals near and east of Rockford this morning. The real urban flood threat is this evening imo when we'll have HP sups in the area. WPC MD out. could be a firehose all day long slowly sagging south 14Z HRRR seems to weaken the current batch too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Those hodographs blended with stout low level buoyancy are going to be a problem if we get at least transient supercell structures.I'm hanging out in Rockford for now, still socked in with occasional showers/rumbles.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Getting ready to mobilize within an hour or so. The reckoning is nigh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Enhanced over N IL, WI and Iowa tomorrow for wind with a hatched area into the slight down to central IL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 SPC is too focused (and maybe jumping the gun) on tomorrow, and missing the need for an ENH for today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Getting ready to mobilize within an hour or so. The reckoning is nigh Going to be headed off to DKB shortly myself. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Going to be headed off to DKB shortly myself. I assume you expect things to initiate right over there correct? That's what my amateur self has figured at least 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 I'm now in Rochelle watching trains.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 I assume you expect things to initiate right over there correct? That's what my amateur self has figured at leastNo, initiation will occur (and already has) to the northwest of there on the boundary. DKB is a good starting point though, with 88 as E/W option and 23 as N/S option.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: SPC is too focused (and maybe jumping the gun) on tomorrow, and missing the need for an ENH for today. I think storm mode and sustenance concerns are enough to preclude an enhanced if you ask me. I think the 5 is fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 minute ago, hlcater said: I think storm mode and sustenance concerns are enough to preclude an enhanced if you ask me. I think the 5 is fine With increasing LL SRH with time, storm mode isn't going to make much difference. Could see a 10% tor and/or 30% wind being needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: With increasing LL SRH with time, storm mode isn't going to make much difference. Could see a 10% tor and/or 30% wind being needed. I honestly didn't think LL SRH was that impressive(150 0-1, 300 0-3). What stuck out to me more was the excess of 0-3km CAPE/vort associated with that old MCV style feature. This, combined with sufficient SRH should yield opportunities for tornadoes even if storm mode was messy. I just think it will be difficult for longer lived mesocyclones to develop due to both storm interaction and poor EBWD somewhat capping potential of this event somewhat. As far as damaging winds, I think LRs are poor, but a few bowing segments near and after 00z could yield marginally severe gusts, so I think a 15 is good there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 The slowly maturing cells along the IL/WI are already rotating.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The slowly maturing cells along the IL/WI are already rotating. . Are you moving up or staying put? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Some nice looking agitated cu back here on the western end of things. Looking quite interesting for a good chunk of n. IL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 Are you moving up or staying put?I procrastinated per usual and left late, but still will probably sit in DKB a bit, unless something catches my eye.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 MD 1450 is up for our AOI.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I procrastinated per usual and left late, but still will probably sit in DKB a bit, unless something catches my eye. . On the way to DeKalb myself now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 Core NW of RFD is rotating in mid levels and has turned a bit more ESE.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Tornado Watch for Northern Illinois and extreme northwest Indiana 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 So unless the 0z HRRR pulls a fast one (with a southward moving MCS), I'm not too worried about tomorrow. Who would have thought that we would get possible severe storms on the one year anniversary of the derecho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 Tor reported near Beloit just now. Semblance of a couple on radar, so could be legit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Given the timing of these things, it looks like they'll approach the metro right at rush hour. Not ideal... There's also one or more boundaries draped across the general area where they'll track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 Tor reported near Beloit just now. Semblance of a couple on radar, so could be legit..Another report now.MKE dropping the ball.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Another report now. MKE dropping the ball. . Scott Peake is on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Is it worth driving up or should I stay out on DeKalb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Sitting here at the homestead in Sycamore, have good lines to shoot either direction as development warrants. Def keeping an eye on the more discrete development near Oregon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 Is it worth driving up or should I stay out on DeKalb?Na, I’d wait for the stuff more WNW and W to develop more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 lotchat 2021/08/09 4:31 PM iembot 1 NE Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] PUBLIC reports HEAVY RAIN of 1.82 INCH at 3:14 PM CDT -- PRIVATE WEATHER STATION REPORTED 1.82 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 20 MINUTES JUST NORTH OF DOWNTOWN ROCKFORD. RAINFALL ONGOING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now