Chicago Storm Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Velo is collapsing right before getting to the LOT radar site, so those 70-110mph wind gusts are just off the surface...barely.Surface stable layer must still be in place. Needed this activity to roll through a bit later, say around noon, to have had better transport to the surface.Additionally, looks like the main storm collapsed right as it was entering the metro. So that’s another negative.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 45 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This has the looks of a possible derecho So much for that, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 a moment of silence for what could have been the Chicago area version of 8/10/20. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Just now, Powerball said: So much for that, lol. Lmbo!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Chicago really dodged a bullet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Chicago really dodged a bullet so you say.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Impressive rear inflow jet and cold pool - ARR dewpoint down to 62F with 40KT winds continuing well behind the outflow. SPC may need to adjust the ENH to southern MI and another farther W into NE IA. 12Z guidance has the cold pool but they all handle it differently. Some show rapid recovery like the HRDPS, others show the recovery around the bubble high taking longer, which may lower the severe risk in some areas of IL/IN if true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Impressive rear inflow jet and cold pool - ARR dewpoint down to 62F with 40KT winds continuing well behind the outflow. SPC may need to adjust the ENH to southern MI and another farther W into NE IA. 12Z guidance has the cold pool but they all handle it differently. Some show rapid recovery like the HRDPS, others show the recovery around the bubble high taking longer, which may lower the severe risk in some areas of IL/IN if true. Mcs season is nightmare trying to predict. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Eastern Iowa clearing, except for what appears to be another storm blowing up in the far SE corner. Look like some sort of boundary flying northward on a collision course with the NE-SW oriented one (the front?) in west-central WI/SE MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Eastern Iowa clearing, except for what appears to be another storm blowing up in the far SE corner. Look like some sort of boundary flying northward on a collision course with the NE-SW oriented one (the front?) in west-central WI/SE MN.That would be the outflow and modified air from the MCS down south.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: That would be the outflow and modified air from the MCS down south. . I figured as much, the question is what will that boundary do when it hits the front and will that airmass be able to recover? Sometimes these organized cold pools can screw things up even with clearing (case in point 6/22/15 which was supposed to be a WI event from Day 3 but ended up in IL as far as ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 15Z HRRR shows the large CAPE hole from the IL MCS and seems to initialize with it on sim reflectivity much better than previous runs...we'll see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Looks like a wake low is developing behind the line. Pressure falls in the western burbs now with gusty SE winds developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 dewpoints knocked back about 7 degrees, from 73 to 66 here as the MCS modified air moved through, back to almost full sunshine though so will be watching how quickly we can recover 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Ofc HRRR wants to track the strongest simulated cell along the Wisconsin River Valley at the Iowa/Sauk county line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 1630z outlook adds 10% tor over southern and central Wisconsin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Tornado watch forthcoming in WI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Getting that feeling. Only concern is best storm mode will be in worst terrain (similar to Saturday). Fairly typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Wondering if there's some funny business on the OFB/western edge of the cold pool later. Especially as that boundary is now cooking under full sun. Could be an alternative play to wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: Looks like a wake low is developing behind the line. Pressure falls in the western burbs now with gusty SE winds developing. A well defined MCV was evident for a while on DVN/MKX/ILX/IWX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 lots of supercell structures already going up on Radar between La Crosse and Stevens Point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Tons of ruined trees around now in Aurora. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 On the way up, think I'm too late but whatever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Don't know when was the last time Wisconsin was in a tornado watch with the tornado probabilities in the "high" category. OTOH, it is a fairly large watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 I'm heading out the door, will probably head to Portage first and evaluate from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=909022959706349 Some pretty crazy footage of the tornado up in Outagamie County near Green Bay yesterday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 yeah that's the kind of encounter i would enjoy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 cell approaching 90 in wi looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: cell approaching 90 in wi looks solid that one is so close. once it moves right and interacts with the boundary in the next hour, look out. Any of these tail-end charlies have the best chance of remaining more discrete and interacting with the outflow from this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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