Chicago Storm Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Good chase day for naders? Pardon the obnoxious question Better chance than today, that's for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Good chase day for naders? Pardon the obnoxious question Higher sup/tornado risk may be getting into North Woods territory but could be decent in central WI over to Green Bay. Probably a conditional risk closer to us depending on boundaries/destabilization, but at least for now anything local may be in the south-moving QLCS overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 17 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Don't see how tomorrow isn't at least an enhanced risk day. Whatever convection is around through the morning will lay out boundaries ahead of the front and increasing shear dropping south. Even the guidance w/ AM storms destabilizes things quickly behind it. Definitely looks like the 3rd consecutive ENH worthy looking day in a row, across portions of WI/IA/IL as it looks for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 30 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Don't see how tomorrow isn't at least an enhanced risk day. Whatever convection is around through the morning will lay out boundaries ahead of the front and increasing shear dropping south. Even the guidance w/ AM storms destabilizes things quickly behind it. Agreed. Much like today, I don't think anyone can argue against the threat of widespread severe weather again tomorrow, especially as there is finally some respectable mid level flow. That, combined with a thermodynamic environment that is in many ways similar to today (perhaps slightly less extreme) should yield, at the very least, a threat for damaging winds in linear segments. The part I'm less confident on is how this evolves in the context of supercells. Effective shear should meet or exceed 40kts which is also a breath of fresh air, but there isn't really a ton of directional shear available as winds should be SSWly, even optimistically. Secondly, shear vectors off the boundary are.... not great at ~45 degrees or so. With both those things in mind, the way I see this working out from a supercell/tornado standpoint is for the modeled MCS on CAMs later tonight to throw a boundary and then chase wherever that boundary intersects with the cold front. I'm not sure there's enough directional shear or a high enough chance for a discrete supercell otherwise. Should note that the HRRR is again overmixing tomorrows dewpoints into the 60s along the boundaries, while consensus has dews near 80, so it can be tossed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 looking solid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Definitely looks like the 3rd consecutive ENH worthy looking day in a row, across portions of WI/IA/IL as it looks for now. So ofc they put it in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Fair amount of wind last night. Numerous 60+ MPH reports in the GRR area. Consumers Energy is reporting around 188,000 without power of which I am one of those customers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 8 hours ago, Scorpion said: Was on top an observation tower on Lapham Peak and wind was definitely hurricane force at times, I kept getting pushed around and was unable to stand up. scorpion getting it anyways, hard to imagine morning stuff by dvn hampering things too much later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Things still on track for S WI today. Look for supercells to unzip NE to SW along the front. Upscale growth will occur after an hour or two with a MCS diving SE through the Chicagoland area. Wind still the largest threat but tornado and hail potential increased from yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 scorpion getting it anyways, hard to imagine morning stuff by dvn hampering things too much laterConcern should increase as time goes on.The longer that complex festers down in the IA/IL/MO border area and the longer it takes for it to slide east of say the IL/IN border, the larger the hole in instability/DP/theta-e fields we’re going to see.That was very close to being an issue last evening actually. The fading complex(s) in MO yesterday ended up sending modified air northward, and our MCS barely outran it. There was a large hole in the same aforementioned fields, with DP’s in S IA/ N MO just south of the MCS having dropped from the upper 70’s/low 80’s to the mid/upper 60’s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Definitely looks like the 3rd consecutive ENH worthy looking day in a row, across portions of WI/IA/IL as it looks for now.That was as of then... As of now, parts of WI and MI look the be the only safe choices to include in an ENH risk. I’d hold off on any portions of IA/IL until a later time, if at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 24 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Concern should increase as time goes on. The longer that complex festers down in the IA/IL/MO border area and the longer it takes for it to slide east of say the IL/IN border, the larger the hole in instability/DP/theta-e fields we’re going to see. Definitely a cold pool developing with it. I wonder if the synoptic fields being stronger today will help trigger a quick recovery behind it. Lapse rates and shear are more impressive today, which could help make up for a potential lack of 75-80 dews. As some mentioned last night, the boundary this sends north towards the front should locally enhance sfc vorticity and the wind field, probably in S WI. The 06Z HRDPS is doing well with that cluster this morning and shows a quick recovery during the mid- to late afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Enhanced expanded into S WI and the Chicagoland area, 5% tor introduced as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: So ofc they put it in MI. Expanded significantly at 13Z. We're getting some cloud breaks already. Yesterday felt so strange with so much sunshine in the morning/early afternoon of an expected severe weather day in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Definitely a cold pool developing with it. I wonder if the synoptic fields being stronger today will help trigger a quick recovery behind it. Lapse rates and shear are more impressive today, which could help make up for a potential lack of 75-80 dews. As some mentioned last night, the boundary this sends north towards the front should locally enhance sfc vorticity and the wind field, probably in S WI. The 06Z HRDPS is doing well with that cluster this morning and shows a quick recovery during the mid- to late afternoon. Good catch with the HRDPS. That might be the only piece of guidance that has a handle on the situation... And as you mentioned, it has solid recovery and the area gets rolled this evening (in addition to a hit later this morning).SPC did upgrade into N IL to an ENH. I probably would have hedged safer for now and kept the ENH in WI/MI for now, with the ability to upgrade further for the 1630 SWODY1.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 A hit for cyclone.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Nothing like going Severe/Tor warning, severe, and severe on back/back/back days. Almost feels like the good old days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 bonus watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Nearly full sunshine here for the moment, but that cloud deck from the IL MCS is about to encroach from the south. Based on the way it's expanding, it may be around for a while. If it is indeed developing a cold pool, we'll have to hope it can recover. Monday didn't clear out until well into the afternoon, but if I recall correctly those morning storms didn't create an organized cold pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 As long as the convective debris clouds don't go too crazy here, excited about the potential gravity waves/mass perturbations that will move into southern Wisconsin from this complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Holy ****.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Holy ****... . On a path to rake the central and southern metro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Holy ****... . Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 This has the looks of a possible derecho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Lol, just a casual 100+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT FOR KENDALL...NORTHERN GRUNDY AND SOUTHERN KANE COUNTIES... At 922 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Yorkville, moving east at 65 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. The damaging winds may last longer than 30 minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 36 minutes ago, madwx said: As long as the convective debris clouds don't go too crazy here, excited about the potential gravity waves/mass perturbations that will move into southern Wisconsin from this complex. Looks like most of MO/IA are clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Velo is collapsing right before getting to the LOT radar site, so those 70-110mph wind gusts are just off the surface...barely.Surface stable layer must still be in place. Needed this activity to roll through a bit later, say around noon, to have had better transport to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Velo is collapsing right before getting to the LOT radar site, so those 70-110mph wind gusts are just off the surface...barely.Surface stable layer must still be in place. Needed this activity to roll through a bit later, say around noon, to have had better transport to the surface.This thing looks like it hit a wall at the LOT radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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