Chicago Storm Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 SPC with the first quality discussion in ages, regarding tomorrow locally.MCV dependent setup, and will heavily depend on what occurs with said MCV tonight/tomorrow morning.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 I'll climb a damn tree if I have to. I don't care anymore. I just need to do something to break the boringness. Yes I know it's not that simple, but at this point even seeing what the Northwoods are like would be a treat compared to sitting on my cheeks at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 Well the 18z HRRR would be a bad scenario for just about all of Chicagoland. Also Boscobel WI tornado from yesterday rated EF3, 150 mph winds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Malacka11 said: I'll climb a damn tree if I have to. I don't care anymore. I just need to do something to break the boringness. Yes I know it's not that simple, but at this point even seeing what the Northwoods are like would be a treat compared to sitting on my cheeks at home. You haven't been to the Northwoods yet and you live in Wisconsin? Easy to describe, it's nicer than where you live. Simply put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, Jonger said: You haven't been to the Northwoods yet and you live in Wisconsin? Easy to describe, it's nicer than where you live. Simply put. I don't live in Wisconsin, I live in Chicagoland. The last real forest I've laid eyes upon was in Germany over half a decade ago. Hence why I'd be willing to drive half a day just to see some new terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 8, 2021 Author Share Posted August 8, 2021 1 hour ago, andyhb said: Well the 18z HRRR would be a bad scenario for just about all of Chicagoland. Also Boscobel WI tornado from yesterday rated EF3, 150 mph winds. 3km NAM is also quite interesting. The disturbance in question for tomorrow has a tor warned sup along the IA/MN border currently. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: 3km NAM is also quite interesting. The disturbance in question for tomorrow has a tor warned sup along the IA/MN border currently. . Literal Rochelle 2.0, lol. Unless I'm missing something, the UDH on the HRRR isn't really that alarming. It was showing phat red/purple streaks in Iowa on 7/14 for example, or even for yesterday's Boscobel tornado although it placed that simulated sup too far NE at least on the run I saw. However, I've noticed you can't really key in on that particular product until the day of, especially with these mesoscale-driven summer events. Then further out, 3KM NAM's scenario for Tuesday does not exactly jive well with SPC's Day 3 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 3km NAM is also quite interesting. The disturbance in question for tomorrow has a tor warned sup along the IA/MN border currently. .That same storm is still going as of now, and is tor warned again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Yeah the longevity of that sup out in IA is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Definitely have some interest in Monday. Would expect bumped up probs on the new day 1 outlook. Looks like potential supercells to linear/bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Ez tornadoes in IL tomorrow. Book it. I won’t be chasing though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 3 hours ago, hlcater said: Ez tornadoes in IL tomorrow. Book it. I won’t be chasing though HRRR is still rather meh. 00Z/06Z 3KM NAM remain intriguing. Haven't seen that combo of CAM solutions for awhile...usually they're flip-flopped from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 would personally take what the hrrr is selling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 HRRR is still rather meh. 00Z/06Z 3KM NAM remain intriguing. Haven't seen that combo of CAM solutions for awhile...usually they're flip-flopped from that.The HRRR is definitely not meh.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: The HRRR is definitely not meh. . Now some more recent runs show stronger stuff and of course they put it IN the Chicago metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Chief met at my employer was hitting the "t" word rather hard for tomorrow during our Morning Show...ironic since SPC has it at "less than 2% all areas." He must be jumpy after Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 Now some more recent runs show stronger stuff and of course they put it IN the Chicago metro...It’s been that way since last evening.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 looks p muddy out there, would be happy with a couple rounds of garden variety+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 SPC with the bump to 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 If things continue to hold, going to need an enhanced risk across parts of N IL/N IN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 I know nobody gives a shit, but I've been asleep for only like three hours and the storm exploding straight over head scared me so badly that it took me nearly five minutes to figure what the hell was going on. Never heard rain this loud before I swear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 only a matter of time before aurora '96 repeats on steroids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Aurora received the greatest 24-hour rainfall (16.94 inches) in Illinois history, exceeding the previous record of 16.54 inches at East St. Louis on June 14, 1957. A broad band of 8-inch-plus rainfall from just south of Rockford to a little north of Kankakee exceeded the 7.58 inch threshold regarded as the average 100-year (once every 100 years) 24-hour storm for a given point in northeast Illinois. The deluge in Aurora was considered a 1-in-1,000-year event. The Joliet Brandon Dam measured 13.60 inches, and a gauge in the extreme southwest corner of the Chicago metro area recorded 10.99 inches. Strong thunderstorms hit on the afternoon of the 17th, but the greatest rainfall in most areas occurred in early morning thunderstorms on the 18th. Wow. Never knew that was a thing. Shared assuming there's at least one other ignoramus like me in here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 50 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: If things continue to hold, going to need an enhanced risk across parts of N IL/N IN. . You really think so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Aurora received the greatest 24-hour rainfall (16.94 inches) in Illinois history, exceeding the previous record of 16.54 inches at East St. Louis on June 14, 1957. A broad band of 8-inch-plus rainfall from just south of Rockford to a little north of Kankakee exceeded the 7.58 inch threshold regarded as the average 100-year (once every 100 years) 24-hour storm for a given point in northeast Illinois. The deluge in Aurora was considered a 1-in-1,000-year event. The Joliet Brandon Dam measured 13.60 inches, and a gauge in the extreme southwest corner of the Chicago metro area recorded 10.99 inches. Strong thunderstorms hit on the afternoon of the 17th, but the greatest rainfall in most areas occurred in early morning thunderstorms on the 18th. Wow. Never knew that was a thing. Shared assuming there's at least one other ignoramus like me in here u aren't from here, understandable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iBrian Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 47 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Aurora received the greatest 24-hour rainfall (16.94 inches) in Illinois history, exceeding the previous record of 16.54 inches at East St. Louis on June 14, 1957. A broad band of 8-inch-plus rainfall from just south of Rockford to a little north of Kankakee exceeded the 7.58 inch threshold regarded as the average 100-year (once every 100 years) 24-hour storm for a given point in northeast Illinois. The deluge in Aurora was considered a 1-in-1,000-year event. The Joliet Brandon Dam measured 13.60 inches, and a gauge in the extreme southwest corner of the Chicago metro area recorded 10.99 inches. Strong thunderstorms hit on the afternoon of the 17th, but the greatest rainfall in most areas occurred in early morning thunderstorms on the 18th. Wow. Never knew that was a thing. Shared assuming there's at least one other ignoramus like me in here Man, I moved here almost 2 years ago and thus have never heard of it. I went through the great flood nobody knows about, but even that "only" put down this much rain. "In two days, a record of 13.67″ of rain fell in Nashville, nearly doubling the old two day total from the remnants of a hurricane in 1979." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 No offense, can we not clutter up an active thread about an ongoing event with historical discussion? We should either create a separate thread for today/tomorrow's severe threat, or one for discussion of rainfall records. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 yeah, getting real cluttered in here, losing track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Flooding probably going to be newsworthy in addition to the severe threat. Radar estimating some 3" totals near and east of Rockford this morning. The real urban flood threat is this evening imo when we'll have HP sups in the area. WPC MD out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 looks like cary#s finally getting on the board here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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