Tropical Storm Fred

[Prospero]

6 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

This is great news.  Where do you think the best place for me to set up to see guaranteed Tropical Storm force conditions with the possibility of Hurricane conditions?

Stay up on warnings and evacuation orders:

"If an evacuation is ordered, there will be a steady stream of traffic leaving the Keys. If you travel to the Keys, you will be required to leave. Furthermore, most, if not all visitor facilities will not be open, as their owners make hurricane preparations. Buildings will be shuttered. Boats will be secured in protective moorings. State and county parks will close. So even though in the early stages of an evacuation, visitors may be able to reach the Keys, they will not enjoy the traditional benefits of a Keys vacation. It’s best to reschedule travel plans to visit after the potential danger has passed."

Have a backup plan on where you might want to go.

Of course, if there is no storm or evacuation, enjoy the Keys!!

[turtlehurricane]

13 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

TY

TY

This is great news.  Where do you think the best place for me to set up to see guaranteed Tropical Storm force conditions with the possibility of Hurricane conditions?

There's no guarantees of anything. You will have to monitor closely on your chase, and position yourself in the right spot. Anywhere from Key West to Palm Beach is fair-game for landfall, and it might be anything from a tropical wave to a major hurricane. 

If I had to guess, I think Cat 1 into southern Miami-Dade. But that's just throwing a dart. 

[Prospero]

18 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

There's no guarantees of anything. You will have to monitor closely on your chase, and position yourself in the right spot. Anywhere from Key West to Palm Beach is fair-game for landfall, and it might be anything from a tropical wave to a major hurricane. 

If I had to guess, I think Cat 1 into southern Miami-Dade. But that's just throwing a dart. 

And you could have a two day adventure. South Florida Saturday morning, then after it passes head north to Pinellas County for a Sunday morning chase. Our beaches start on the south at Pass-a-Grille which is a cool place to watch a storm. It is low elevation so gets some flooding, lots of beautiful palm trees that sway in the wind, and plenty of good beach access. Then north there is St Pete Beach, Treasure Island, Indian Rocks Beach and Indian Shores, Redington Beach, and of course Clearwater Beach.

If it is a Tropical Storm right here in Gulfport is a great place. We are not on the Gulf of Mexico, we are on Boca Ciega Bay. Our cool little downtown gets flooded with every storm and it is a popular place for local news to visit during storms just because it always looks worse here than anywhere else.

If you think you might come up here for the Sunday morning chase, you might check out rooms and there are plenty with beautiful beachfront views. You'll find great food all up and down the beaches, even during Tropical Storms.

Sometimes my wife and I stay at Island Inn on Treasure Island. It is inexpensive, has great Gulf views, comfortable, clean, and would be a perfect basecamp to travel up and down the beach looking for best storm shots. And its a 15 minute hop to Gulfport to see flooding at high tide.

Island Inn - Treasure Island

Good luck!

[Jessy89]

Lord how mercy cmc puts 12+ inches over the Appalachians and parts of upstate sc. that’s catastrophic flooding right there


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[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Not an expert, I remember, maybe 10 or 15 years ago, another sheared TC hit Hispaniola, a naked swirl popped out, and dissipated.  I see convection NW of the naked LLC* developing, maybe this will be different, but my gut is odds at least 50/50 the LLC opens up and the trailing mid-level vort so close to Cuba can't form a new LLC.

*LLC looks like a wheel riding up the North Coast of Cuba, I am not actually sure it has West winds, anyone have obs?

No guarantees, NHC probably has to keep advisories going for a couple more forecast cycles, but it may not even hit Florida as a TD.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Just now, Jessy89 said:

Lord how mercy cmc puts 12+ inches over the Appalachians and parts of upstate sc. that’s catastrophic flooding right there


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Tropics thread, Fred and GFS forecast Grace (95L, I think, hits S Carolina and drifts SW and meanders), 15 day total rain in excess of 20 inches parts of the Florida Panhandle.

[NavarreDon]

This is great news.  Where do you think the best place for me to set up to see guaranteed Tropical Storm force conditions with the possibility of Hurricane conditions?

I would recommend the Panhandle. Base of Panama City Beach, this allows relocation both E & W in pretty quick order.


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[Seminole]

14 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Tropics thread, Fred and GFS forecast Grace (95L, I think, hits S Carolina and drifts SW and meanders), 15 day total rain in excess of 20 inches parts of the Florida Panhandle.

I'm right in the bulls eye of that 20 inch rain total. I guess on the bright side I won't have to put water in the pool for awhile. 

[turtlehurricane]

It's definitely looking better and better. Shower and thunderstorm activity increasing in all quadrants. Looks primed to have a massive convective blowup when DMAX starts in 5-6 hours. 

[jpljr77]

1 hour ago, Jessy89 said:

Lord how mercy cmc puts 12+ inches over the Appalachians and parts of upstate sc. that’s catastrophic flooding right there


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You aren't lying. I lived in Albany, Ga. during TS Alberto in 1994. It took a much different path (well into the Gulf, coming ashore in Destin), but it also slowed and dropped unreal amounts of water on middle and north Georgia. In fact, if you were to move that CMC precipitation path about 75 miles to the west, that's what we got. What resulted was truly catastrophic river flooding a few days later. More than half of a large town with standing water, which meant no electricity, in S. Georgia, in July. Unfun.

[cptcatz]

Convection is definitely slowly starting to fill in closer and closer to the swirl center.  Still has a ways to go but if it keeps it up it could be a nice TS by the time it gets near southern Florida.

[Wannabehippie]

upper lows to the NW and NE of Fred, so upper air is not all that favorable right now for any rapid intensifying. 

[LawdogGRNJ]

As it stands, I can't see the wave doing much unless it clears the area of 30 KTS wind shear currently sitting in the Straits of Florida.  That being said, the models have been shifting more westerly the last few runs.  This would give the wave a shot at reaching very favorable conditions. Again, thats if it holds together.  Lot of "ifs" there. 

[NavarreDon]

At work & just saw this, looks like a shift to the west….thoughts?


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[turtlehurricane]

Looking at the visible loop of the full day, you can see that the circulation has expanded alot, and that thunderstorm activity is continually ramping up. At this point there's a nice convective band directly connected to the center in SE quadrant, and a large convective blowup in NE quadrant.

It's obviously enough convective activity to increase the vorticity of the cyclone, which is why the circulation is steadily getting bigger.

Very good setup for a powerful DMAX. 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-01-96-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[AChilders]

I think the weakening over the mountains has definitely caused the shift west, difficult to tell if it will gets its act together or not, time is running out. 

[WeatherFox]

12 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

At work & just saw this, looks like a shift to the west….thoughts?


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Ya, those are the computer models.  Will just need to have Fred reform, which it was predicted it would.

[SnowenOutThere]

Watch DMAX come and go and nothing happen after waiting all this time.  

[turtlehurricane]

This is essentially the first outer band to come through. It’s a quasi-band, it’s on the edge of Fred’s circulation. A whole lot more weather like this going to come in the next few days. I think this storm will be more intense than most people expect, it will be a “juicy” cyclone with tons of squall activity. 

[WeatherAU]

Not sure how accurate this is... It is a good playground.
https://earth.nullschool.net

[turtlehurricane]

NHC finally issues tropical storm watches for the Keys, but completely excludes SE FL. They're too conservative, it's ridiculous to think that there won't be tropical storm conditions in SE FL when most of the convection and bands will be on northern side of the circulation. 

There's still even a chance that Fred's center will go into SE FL once it becomes more vertically stacked and gets caught in the upper steering currents, like the HWRF scenario from the past few days.

So they're setting up SE FL for very short-fused watches and warnings, with barely any time to prepare.

I think they will rectify this at 11 pm - 5 am though cause this storm will be exploding with convection by then. 

Btw, DMAX is starting. Deep convection going up near the center. Game on!

[WeatherAU]

About right and website is fast enough.
https://earth.nullschool.net

[SandySurvivor]

24 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

This is essentially the first outer band to come through. It’s a quasi-band, it’s on the edge of Fred’s circulation. A whole lot more weather like this going to come in the next few days. I think this storm will be more intense than most people expect, it will be a “juicy” cyclone with tons of squall activity. 

 

9 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

NHC finally issues tropical storm watches for the Keys, but completely excludes SE FL. They're too conservative, it's ridiculous to think that there won't be tropical storm conditions in SE FL when most of the convection and bands will be on northern side of the circulation. 

There's still even a chance that Fred's center will go into SE FL once it becomes more vertically stacked and gets caught in the upper steering currents, like the HWRF scenario from the past few days.

So they're setting up SE FL for very short-fused watches and warnings, with barely any time to prepare.

I think they will rectify this at 11 pm - 5 am though cause this storm will be exploding with convection by then. 

Btw, DMAX is starting. Deep convection going up near the center. Game on!

Should I consider moving a few miles inland to avoid surge and flooding?

I'm setting up my chase location in Islamorada now, however these posts make me nervous that it could get bad.

[Prospero]

1 minute ago, SandySurvivor said:

 

Should I consider moving a few miles inland to avoid surge and flooding?

I'm setting up my chase location in Islamorada now, however these posts make me nervous that it could get bad.

As a "storm chaser", I doubt you have anything to worry about. In fact, you will be scrambling to find the very best and most intense affects you can find. You've watched the Weather Channel, right?

If this keeps tracking west, you might want to head to LA...

Personally, I wish I was chasing tornadoes in the Midwest myself.

[WeatherAU]

12z HWRF suggests this is going into GOM if that happens - MAJOR? HWRF says solution is INCONSISTENT ::: RECON?

On the other hand NAVGEM has tight gradient suggesting also a major status...

[Prospero]

You know I always whine about storms "parting" when they come by us in Gulfport. I've lived here for 18 years, there is some kind of natural reason why these storms part over us. Not always, but most of the time. See radar image below, yet another line of storms parting over Gulfport. We may still get hit, sometimes we do. But usually we see rain a few blocks to the south and a few blocks to the north. We do get the lightning and wind which is exciting, but wish we got all that rain too!

 

[Wannabehippie]

23 minutes ago, Prospero said:

As a "storm chaser", I doubt you have anything to worry about. In fact, you will be scrambling to find the very best and most intense affects you can find. You've watched the Weather Channel, right?

If this keeps tracking west, you might want to head to LA...

Personally, I wish I was chasing tornadoes in the Midwest myself.

Check where Hurricane Josh is setting up shop. He has a nose for where storms are coming onshore.

 

[Prospero]

47 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

Should I consider moving a few miles inland to avoid surge and flooding?

I'm setting up my chase location in Islamorada now, however these posts make me nervous that it could get bad.

May I ask?

Have you ever experienced a tropical cyclone (Tropical Storm or Hurricane)?

If not, even a moderate Tropical Storm will be something you'll never forget. The sustained winds, pounding sideways rain, the surf breaking and blowing over seawalls, palm fronds flying in the air, power going out, etc.

For we who live down here in Florida who have homes and businesses that we cannot pack up and run away during a storm, we ride them out. For chasers who are mobile, even the worst hurricanes you can "get out of the way" in a reasonably short notice, even in traffic on bridges.

So you should aim to be in the heart and core of whatever Fred might do, and if two or three hours out it looks really bad (cat 3 or 4), head inland or a few miles north or south. You likely won't be in danger unless you are foolish and ignore the obvious. But you won't need to worry about that with Fred, I am confident. Try to be where it will be the worst, get your money's worth on your trip to Florida. No matter what, chances are you will not be in the exact right place.

That said, even being anywhere in a tropical cyclone is very impressive. You will "feel" it, these storms have a feel that is unique. The awesome power is not like anything else in the world. Watching clouds overhead move quickly, the wind on your face, the palms bending (which they evolved to do), everything is amazing. Enjoy!

Side note on my previous whiny email about not getting rain in Gulfport. We are getting it this time, sideways. Third night of crackling lightning and thunder, a 60 mph gust recorded and mentioned on the local news. (My dad in assisted living a couple miles away just called panicking thinking Fred was here! LOL)

Uh oh, power blinking again. Been a few years since we've lost power, and the past three nights our areas has been out. Debris in the yard which is good as it helps to prepare the trees for a storm IF we get one.

 

 

[WeatherAU]

Talking about comparisons here to help out what Fred might decide (30-31C is serious). Referencing Tropical Storm Cristobal while water temperature was around 28C at the time - Gulf of Mexico. However, Michael (Oct sun angle) intensified to CAT5 28-29C at that time. Dorian (late Aug sun angle) 30-31C at that time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_storms_Amanda_and_Cristobal

Timing... August is warmer/hotter than June (Cristobal). Ocean is warmer and surface is humid- air parcels contain much more kinetic + potential energy, Lifting Index (land) (a much more meaning (than CAPE) for water surface ocean heat content), CAPE (not so much, but over land is a different story)...

Keywords Google: ocean heat content and this website will come up where you can go back and find previous year history SST, Ocean Heat Content etc...

[FLweather]

10 minutes ago, Prospero said:

May I ask?

Have you ever experienced a tropical cyclone (Tropical Storm or Hurricane)?

If not, even a moderate Tropical Storm will be something you'll never forget. The sustained winds, pounding sideways rain, the surf breaking and blowing over seawalls, palm fronds flying in the air, power going out, etc.

For we who live down here in Florida who have homes and businesses that we cannot pack up and run away during a storm, we ride them out. For chasers who are mobile, even the worst hurricanes you can "get out of the way" in a reasonably short notice, even in traffic on bridges.

So you should aim to be in the heart and core of whatever Fred might do, and if two or three hours out it looks really bad (cat 3 or 4), head inland or a few miles north or south. You likely won't be in danger unless you are foolish and ignore the obvious. But you won't need to worry about that with Fred, I am confident. Try to be where it will be the worst, get your money's worth on your trip to Florida. No matter what, chances are you will not be in the exact right place.

That said, even being anywhere in a tropical cyclone is very impressive. You will "feel" it, these storms have a feel that is unique. The awesome power is not like anything else in the world. Watching clouds overhead move quickly, the wind on your face, the palms bending (which they evolved to do), everything is amazing. Enjoy!

Side note on my previous whiny email about not getting rain in Gulfport. We are getting it this time, sideways. Third night of crackling lightning and thunder, a 60 mph gust recorded and mentioned on the local news. (My dad in assisted living a couple miles away just called panicking thinking Fred was here! LOL)

Uh oh, power blinking again. Been a few years since we've lost power, and the past three nights our areas has been out. Debris in the yard which is good as it helps to prepare the trees for a storm IF we get one.

 

 

I'll be out your way tomorrow working off of McMullen Booth RD and Gulf to Bay.

 

But coming across SR 60 across the bay... I would be really sketched out if a cat 2 or higher hit that area.. presuming the NE quadrant.