WeatherAU Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Not optimal usage of 30-31C warm water... if ends up 1009mb low or something similar this is probably the right definition - Potential Tropical Cyclone. It has the potential but not like Laura, Dorian, Michael, Irene for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Wow. Talk about a junky system. LLC highly displaced from any convection. Currently over that little island NNW of Haiti. While convection and upper levels trapped over Hispaniola. I honestly don't see this system getting it's act together. Considering the LLC out running the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 24 minutes ago, FLweather said: Wow. Talk about a junky system. LLC highly displaced from any convection. Currently over that little island NNW of Haiti. While convection and upper levels trapped over Hispaniola. I honestly don't see this system getting it's act together. Considering the LLC out running the upper levels. Fred's not dead. Maybe beat up a little. One can make out a little circulation on the IR animation. It may not be directly over the LLC though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 25 minutes ago, Prospero said: Fred's not dead. Maybe beat up a little. One can make out a little circulation on the IR animation. It may not be directly over the LLC though. That's not the LLC. Move your arrow to the left over that island. That's where the LLC is. That area with your arrow is probably more than likely is the MLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 27 minutes ago, FLweather said: That's not the LLC. Move your arrow to the left over that island. That's where the LLC is. That area with your arrow is probably more than likely is the MLC. Yea, I figure I am too far to east, but can see a spin there. NOAA has it just off the tip of Haiti south of the Inagua Islands: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 With the visible starting to show it is easier to locate. Doesn't look like much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 It looks like the center is over the Inagua Islands. Visible about to confirm, rapid scan visible link here: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-01-12-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Only problem is the storm has completely detached from its upper-level support and is in an environment of high shear, and has entrained lots of dry air. However, if the center really is over Inagua right now, then Fred will track right into Miami. And Fred has roughly 2 days to get its act together before landfall. Furthermore, if the circulation really did survive, that's a pretty big deal. We will know within the next 30 mins or so as sun rises. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Look like COC is over or near Inagua. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater_band.php?stormid=AL062021&band=NightMicrophysics&length=24 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Seminole said: Look like COC is over or near Inagua. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater_band.php?stormid=AL062021&band=NightMicrophysics&length=24 Sure looks like it. If it is, it looks fairly well defined as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 The swirl is clearly evident just west of Inagua, problem is there's no convection for hundreds of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, cptcatz said: The swirl is clearly evident just west of Inagua, problem is there's no convection for hundreds of miles. Naked swirls are just so much fun to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, cptcatz said: The swirl is clearly evident just west of Inagua, problem is there's no convection for hundreds of miles. I'm going back to the idea that the large beautiful swirl we are looking at is NOT Fred's LLC and that it is where the NOAA says it is south of Inagua. I can see it, very small, not impressive but will be watching it. The large swirl may just blow away doing nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 However, where the latest NOAA track shows it is a ways west of what I am looking at (red arrow) where there is small blob of convection firing up on sats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Fred is on life support. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 The weak circulation above is at the 850 mb level. The other recon mission is finding nothing more than a weak trough at a flight level of 12k ft. Unless convection ramps up in relatively short order, Fred will degenerate into an open wave. Hispaniola apparently did not take kindly to its reputation being tarnished in 2020. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Seminole said: Naked swirls are just so much fun to follow. That has been the trend too after Elsa with this hurricane season. The last robust naked swirl we tracked made landfall near Saint Augustine. This hurricane season is more and more reminding me of the 2009 hurricane season. That year we were developing a weak to moderate El Nino just interesting as we head forwards here. I know the data shows a redeveloping La Nina though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 If the bullish HWRF scenario (from previous runs) is accurate, then what will happen today is a band of convection will start flaring up over the Bahamas, and then over the course of 24 hours Fred will become organized again. So that's the thing to watch for. I think it's actually quite likely that Fred will intensify. It has alot of nuclear hot water to traverse. Once some convection flares over or near the center it's game on, and that's pretty much definitely going to happen since the water is so hot and there's ample convergence near the center. This time of year, even shallow little Seabreeze boundaries blow up into big convective complexes, let alone a circulation like this. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 27 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: If the bullish HWRF scenario (from previous runs) is accurate, then what will happen today is a band of convection will start flaring up over the Bahamas, and then over the course of 24 hours Fred will become organized again. So that's the thing to watch for. I think it's actually quite likely that Fred will intensify. It has alot of nuclear hot water to traverse. Once some convection flares over or near the center it's game on, and that's pretty much definitely going to happen since the water is so hot and there's ample convergence near the center. This time of year, even shallow little Seabreeze boundaries blow up into big convective complexes, let alone a circulation like this. I am flying into Miami today in preparation of chasing Fred after looking at the latest HWRF. Little nervous about chasing this in the Keys with potential surge issues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 1 hour ago, turtlehurricane said: If the bullish HWRF scenario (from previous runs) is accurate, then what will happen today is a band of convection will start flaring up over the Bahamas, and then over the course of 24 hours Fred will become organized again. So that's the thing to watch for. I think it's actually quite likely that Fred will intensify. It has alot of nuclear hot water to traverse. Once some convection flares over or near the center it's game on, and that's pretty much definitely going to happen since the water is so hot and there's ample convergence near the center. This time of year, even shallow little Seabreeze boundaries blow up into big convective complexes, let alone a circulation like this. However that is just what is happening on the surface. You cannot ignore the dry air and shear around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Even though it is a naked swirl now, I expect tropical storm watches for the Keys and SE FL at 11 am, since even if it doesn't have any convection all day, there will be a massive convective blowup during diurnal maximum tonight, giving Fred roughly 36 hours to intensify before landfall in South Florida. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 1 hour ago, SandySurvivor said: I am flying into Miami today in preparation of chasing Fred after looking at the latest HWRF. Little nervous about chasing this in the Keys with potential surge issues. I am not sure this one is going to be chase worthy but good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 NHC basically taking a wait and see approach before issuing any new watches/warnings anywhere, since this is barely a tropical depression right now. Watches/Warnings could end up being very short fused since this thing probably won't have any convection till tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 12, 2021 Author Share Posted August 12, 2021 33 minutes ago, eyewall said: I am not sure this one is going to be chase worthy but good luck. Agree, but sometimes a new chaser needs to cut their teeth with the marginal stuff in order to have the skill set to handle more intense systems. Some of the lessons I learned during earlier failed/marginal chases were directly responsible for being in excellent position for future intense events. Best of luck @SandySurvivor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 This is unusual formation PTC. Usually TDs have optimistic feelings in regards forward motion and sensing warm water ahead... It is written in the physics of the wave IMO. I do not think this is the same idea under the same name - Fred (2009)https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Fred_(2009) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, WeatherAU said: This is unusual formation PTC. Usually TDs have optimistic feelings in regards forward motion and sensing warm water ahead... It is written in the physics of the wave IMO. I do not think this is the same idea under the same name - Fred (2009)https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Fred_(2009) It is churning towards the Gulf Stream, the hottest water in the Hemisphere. What you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Just now, turtlehurricane said: It is churning towards the Gulf Stream, the hottest water in the Hemisphere. What you mean? My mistake. Confused with Floyd, Fred is a new name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 A convective band is forming in northern semicircle, just like the HWRF bullish scenario from previous runs. The less bullish HWRF runs we have now don't show this happening until tonight, so it's ahead of the game https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-14-96-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 They slowed down the timeline a little. If anything comes of Fred we'll likely be experiencing in daylight hours which is a treat for a change. Seems like the last few storms around here have been in the middle of the night. 3 hours ago, SandySurvivor said: Little nervous about chasing this in the Keys with potential surge issues. If Fred becomes a substantial storm, it might be hard to get to the keys if they close traffic to visitors. You could always drive up here to Pinellas County and give Fred another day to strengthen. We have lots of beach areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 1 hour ago, eyewall said: I am not sure this one is going to be chase worthy but good luck. TY 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Agree, but sometimes a new chaser needs to cut their teeth with the marginal stuff in order to have the skill set to handle more intense systems. Some of the lessons I learned during earlier failed/marginal chases were directly responsible for being in excellent position for future intense events. Best of luck @SandySurvivor TY 3 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: A convective band is forming in northern semicircle, just like the HWRF bullish scenario from previous runs. The less bullish HWRF runs we have now don't show this happening until tonight, so it's ahead of the game https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-14-96-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined This is great news. Where do you think the best place for me to set up to see guaranteed Tropical Storm force conditions with the possibility of Hurricane conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Fred is notorious for typhoons/pacific side might not know well the Atlantic yet or the Caribbean! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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