FLweather Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 3 hours ago, turtlehurricane said: Basically, what HWRF is saying is that if any closed circulation of any sort makes it past Hispaniola, it will rapidly intensify over Florida Straits. Literally the HWRF shows it getting shredded and then slowly regenerating near Cuban Coast tomorrow, but once it does regenerate it's game on. We shall see. There's no guarantee of regeneration, and regeneration can take a very long time if it does happen. You are right on that. "We shall see" If any chance remotely the the HWRF or HWRFP are correct. Come Friday as a small H2 trough develops across N FL and GA with a slightly displaced ridge over top and south of the SLC. Could be a recipe for excellent upper level divergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 We have had a couple of wicked strong squalls come in off the ocean today here with tropical storm force winds, intense thunder/lightning, and absolutely drenching rain. Even though it is Florida, these storms are definitely abnormally strong, and squalls coming in from the ocean in the daytime is unusual. There's definitely a lot of 'juice' in the atmosphere. Also, I noticed there's a strange meteorological pattern taking shape north of Fred. I wonder if that's what the HWRF is sniffing out with the reformation and rapid intensification. That stuff north of Fred looks like ripe for TC genesis, and it's not far-fetched that it will happen like that once Fred moves a bit further north. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-CAR-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: We have had a couple of wicked strong squalls come in off the ocean today here with tropical storm force winds, intense thunder/lightning, and absolutely drenching rain. We are in our second evening of the same. At least this time we are getting rain here in Gulfport. Last night, which is typical for whatever reason, the storms part and it rains north and south of us. So last night with the most intense lighting storm in a couple years or so, very intense, the strikes were hitting dry targets so instead of the electricity running on the wet outside of whatever they hit they went right through the center blowing up whatever it is they hit. Thus our area was without power for several hours (near 20K homes very quickly). I was standing outside watching. Scary! Saw the fat bolt that kicked off our power. It hit a block or two away and the thunder was simultaneous. Made me jump, could smell ozone. The neighborhood went silent, so no more humming, buzzing, nothing. Thunder and sirens were the only sounds for an hour. It did finally rain lightly after the storms drifted off the coast, 0.15 an inch. Yes, there is energy built up, and the Gulf of Mexico needs to release some tension as well. Will Fred be the one? Who knows. Will it even be this year? Who knows. But the energy is there and needs a release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Latest satellite shows a pretty good outflow and new Blowup of storms at the core, looking pretty good for a storm crossing the islands. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 There must be crazy rainfall rates right now in Hispaniola. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Fred has the difficult task to sync to warm water as fast as he could once it leaves the islands. How fast this process happens and senses warm 30-31C water will determine its borderline CAT1-2... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Wow convection -80C should be raining real hard over there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 OK, can anyone tell us which arrow is closer the whatever is the center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Prospero said: OK, can anyone tell us which arrow is closer the whatever is the center? Probably the convection as the SLC scraps and squeezes through 2 valley regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 34 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: We have had a couple of wicked strong squalls come in off the ocean today here with tropical storm force winds, intense thunder/lightning, and absolutely drenching rain. Even though it is Florida, these storms are definitely abnormally strong, and squalls coming in from the ocean in the daytime is unusual. There's definitely a lot of 'juice' in the atmosphere. Also, I noticed there's a strange meteorological pattern taking shape north of Fred. I wonder if that's what the HWRF is sniffing out with the reformation and rapid intensification. That stuff north of Fred looks like ripe for TC genesis, and it's not far-fetched that it will happen like that once Fred moves a bit further north. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-CAR-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif Thoughts and Prayers as you contend with all of this weather that is unusual in Florida except for many days during June, July and August of every year. Just a bit of rain here also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 21 minutes ago, FLweather said: Probably the convection as the SLC scraps and squeezes through 2 valley regions. Here's a graphic I just made for myself, not being totally educated on the mountains of the island. The convection is in the valley. But one lesson over and over, and over again the past couple years I have been here is that convection is not always where the center of the storm is. Deceptive way too often. At this moment I am catching up for the day, yet trying not to fall into the "convection burst" excitement I have typically enjoyed too much. Even seeing an "eye" that seems to want to appear. But the graphic shows the terrain and where the current IR overlays. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 58 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: We have had a couple of wicked strong squalls come in off the ocean today here with tropical storm force winds, intense thunder/lightning, and absolutely drenching rain. Even though it is Florida, these storms are definitely abnormally strong, and squalls coming in from the ocean in the daytime is unusual. There's definitely a lot of 'juice' in the atmosphere. none of that is abnormal for Florida in the summer lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, Prospero said: Here's a graphic I just made for myself, not being totally educated on the mountains of the island. The convection is in the valley. But one lesson over and over, and over again the past couple years I have been here is that convection is not always where the center of the storm is. Deceptive way too often. At this moment I am catching up for the day, yet trying not to fall into the "convection burst" excitement I have typically enjoyed too much. Even seeing an "eye" that seems to want to appear. But the graphic shows the terrain and where the current IR overlays. Kudos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, Prospero said: Here's a graphic I just made for myself, not being totally educated on the mountains of the island. The convection is in the valley. But one lesson over and over, and over again the past couple years I have been here is that convection is not always where the center of the storm is. Deceptive way too often. At this moment I am catching up for the day, yet trying not to fall into the "convection burst" excitement I have typically enjoyed too much. Even seeing an "eye" that seems to want to appear. But the graphic shows the terrain and where the current IR overlays. Looking at that and the storm might be able to ninja it’s way into the bay avoiding the worst of the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: none of that is abnormal for Florida in the summer lol Yes, we get storms. But sometimes they have qualities that are a little different. I guess you have to be obsessed like me to notice, and I can say in my backyard the last two nights I've watched more intense lightning than the past two years at least, maybe conbined. Last year was a lightning dud at our house. The "thunderstorm" season came and went very disappointing to me. At risk of being kicked off for off-topic, when/if Fred fires up I am ready to post my dribble on a Fred Banter thread. As always... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Looking at that and the storm might be able to ninja it’s way into the bay avoiding the worst of the mountains. It is. Not going to run into a brick wall... Mainland Hispaniola. Going to skim South than probably jump north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Looking at that and the storm might be able to ninja it’s way into the bay avoiding the worst of the mountains. Especially if the center is more on the north side of Hispaniola which it might be. Part of my frame of reference is when a low fed by monsoon or Gulf moisture hits southwest Colorado and snow piles up very deep on the front range fairly far away from the center of the low. So the convection on the southern side of this island's mountains to me could be just the pile up of moisture and energy being squeezed out by the elevation while the center is on the other side of the mountains. I AM NOT A MET (disclaimer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 There's some hints on Visible and Shortwave that whatever is left of the center is on the northern side of Hispaniola. It's very likely degenerated into an open wave for now, with solid easterlies on north side but no westerlies on south side. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, Prospero said: Especially if the center is more on the north side of Hispaniola which it might be. Part of my frame of reference is when a low fed by monsoon or Gulf moisture hits southwest Colorado and snow piles up very deep on the front range fairly far away from the center of the low. So the convection on the southern side of this island's mountains to me could be just the pile up of moisture and energy being squeezed out by the elevation while the center is on the other side of the mountains. I AM NOT A MET (disclaimer) I see what your talking about now. Good eye. Most definitely that feature could be SFC. If it is... It's about to be over water again here shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 NHC generously downgraded Fred to a TD, when in-fact it is likely once again a ‘potential tropical cyclone’ NHC also fixing center on northern coast where we all see it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: NHC generously downgraded Fred to a TD, when in-fact it is likely once again a ‘potential tropical cyclone’ NHC also fixing center on northern coast where we all see it. I posted on the potential for this to happen yesterday. It’s not uncommon for this to happen especially with these weaker systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 15 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: NHC generously downgraded Fred to a TD, when in-fact it is likely once again a ‘potential tropical cyclone’ NHC also fixing center on northern coast where we all see it. Perfect for now. Bedtime, getting up at 4 am. My wife is a teacher and I get up with her. I'll wake up around midnight and grab my phone to see the latest NOAA advisory and see what happens here. I'm not expecting anything much until tomorrow afternoon...if even then. But hey, you never know what Fred might do. "Yabba-Dabba-Doo!" 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Just now, Prospero said: Perfect for now. Bedtime, getting up at 4 am. My wife is a teacher and I get up with her. I'll wake up around midnight and grab my phone to see the latest NOAA advisory and see what happens here. I'm not expecting anything much until tomorrow afternoon...if even then. But hey, you never know what Fred might do. "Yabba-Dabba-Doo!" Fred finds it difficult to sustain harsh environment... weak storm ::: somewhat manages to spark -80C as of the timing of this post... It is plugged in the outlet definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 55 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: NHC generously downgraded Fred to a TD, when in-fact it is likely once again a ‘potential tropical cyclone’ NHC also fixing center on northern coast where we all see it. When Andrew was found to be a 50 knot open wave on recon, but 1992 AVN (now even better and renamed GFS) showed it quickly closing a circulation again, Bob Sheets made the decision to keep advisories on it as a TS because ending advisories to restart 12 or 24 hours later was deemed not in the interest of public safety. Safety comes before science. 1992, they couldn't have PTC'd Andrew, I do not know if they could PTC a named storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 34 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: When Andrew was found to be a 50 knot open wave on recon, but 1992 AVN (now even better and renamed GFS) showed it quickly closing a circulation again, Bob Sheets made the decision to keep advisories on it as a TS because ending advisories to restart 12 or 24 hours later was deemed not in the interest of public safety. Safety comes before science. 1992, they couldn't have PTC'd Andrew, I do not know if they could PTC a named storm. Aren't they doing basically what they did with Eta last year when it was over Central America? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Shortwave seems to show the ghost of the circulation emerging from the coast of northern Hispaniola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbullsfan22 Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 So this storm is either on the verge of becoming a cat 1/2 hitting Florida or a broken wave with a name, all depending on if it’s and even or an odd numbered post….. seems like we are rounding into form just in time for storm season 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 47 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Aren't they doing basically what they did with Eta last year when it was over Central America? School year had started by Eta (we missed a day for no reason for Laura and a day for flooding for Beta), or I do not know. No 0Z models, no watching satellite loops until 1 am, when I'm teaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Exceptional view only if it was visible SAT ... spot around -90C maybe... suggesting or trying to decipher the orographic lift conditions but having hard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 36 minutes ago, WeatherAU said: Exceptional view only if it was visible SAT ... spot around -90C maybe... suggesting or trying to decipher the orographic lift conditions but having hard time. It’s orthograpically enhanced the bottom “claw” of the island has mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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