Tropical Storm Fred

[NorthHillsWx]

42 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

It looks like it's committing suicide. Only 5-10% chance it emerges with a closed circulation. Will probably skirt along the whole southern coast of Hispaniola and hit Cuba too. 

Definitely going to be a situation where it will either reform or die. To your point, almost no chance the weak center survives. Also, the convection to the south is likely going to be choked off going over the mountains. This system could very easily fizzle without much ado at this point, though I think we will see some form of center reformation to the north of Hispaniola in 24 hours

[ldub23]

27 minutes ago, Muhammad2922 said:

Most recent

The epac hurricane originally had been forecasted to get to cat 4 or so intensity by the Ecmwf is now borderline cat 1 / 2 . With this the tutt shear zone will be weaker for both 95l and Fred. This also means the mjo is now moving into the Atlantic. Both systems are in good shape to organize.

East  pac  doing  much better.

[WxWatcher007]

Let’s keep this thread focused on TS Fred, but yeah, 95L has a higher ceiling at this point.

What happens with Fred could impact 95L in a few days. There’s a lot to sort out with TS Fred.

[WxWatcher007]

11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 11
Location: 18.2°N 69.7°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

[NorthHillsWx]

Fred’s circulation is actually much better defined today in visible and as noted in the 11am discussion, recon found as much. Funny how misleading the convection yesterday was. I’d say Fred is considerably better defined at this point with minimal convection than at any point yesterday. What does it mean? Not much, that center is going to be shredded. Guidance moving further and further west has large implications as well. It keeps the majority of the system inland over Haiti and Cuba. This all favors a significantly weaker scenario. If the system had crossed the Dominican Republic, or even Puerto Rico as some modeling signaled yesterday, it would have had a much better chance to strengthen with the extended period of time over the Atlantic. Now the question becomes 1) can the system survive enough to have a chance to strengthen in a couple days 2) does it go far enough west into the Gulf to be able to take advantage of bathtub water or does it ride the Florida peninsula and struggle further with land interaction? All this and the environment ahead of Fred is extremely marginal. 

[turtlehurricane]

I’ve been in the cone since Monday afternoon, but I’m very close to being de-coned
 

This thing just does not have the veracity to push north across Hispaniola. It is stuck on the southern coast, just like it was stuck south of Puerto Rico yesterday.

most likely scenario is it gets entangled in the mountains this afternoon and just stalls and dies, with some sort of remnant hitting Guantanamo bay tonight 

[Akeem the African Dream]

18 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

Surface center becoming apparent now. It's WAY north of NHC center. Looks like the HWRF SE FL Major Hurricane scenario is actualizing itself. 

 

10 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

I’ve been in the cone since Monday afternoon, but I’m very close to being de-coned
 

This thing just does not have the veracity to push north across Hispaniola. It is stuck on the southern coast, just like it was stuck south of Puerto Rico yesterday.

most likely scenario is it gets entangled in the mountains this afternoon and just stalls and dies, with some sort of remnant hitting Guantanamo bay tonight 

what service do you forecast for?  

[A-L-E-K]

takes skill 2 b in the game this long and still suck

[buckeyefan1]

Dear newbies,

STOP posting nonsense. Read more and post less before you find yourself on the outside looking in. This will be the last warning you will get.

 

 

For the rest of you.....please carry on  

[ldub23]

GFS keeps  it  very weak. 1009mb at  "landfall". I think conditions  might not be all that favorable  in the  GOM.

 

[thunderbolt]

2 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS keeps  it  very weak. 1009mb at  "landfall". I think conditions  might not be all that favorable  in the  GOM.

 

Wow

[cptcatz]

Interesting 12z HWRF run.  It shows it getting shredded by Hispanolia but then regenerates near the Bahamas and still hits Miami-Dade at 982 mb.  Any way that's possible?

[Tezeta]

54 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Dear newbies,

STOP posting nonsense. Read more and post less before you find yourself on the outside looking in. This will be the last warning you will get.

 

 

For the rest of you.....please carry on  

Part of what keeps everything fun is the dumbasses. Mods need to stop strangling the tropical threads that don’t have many posts anyways. 

[turtlehurricane]

 

13 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Interesting 12z HWRF run.  It shows it getting shredded by Hispanolia but then regenerates near the Bahamas and still hits Miami-Dade at 982 mb.  Any way that's possible?

Basically, what HWRF is saying is that if any closed circulation of any sort makes it past Hispaniola, it will rapidly intensify over Florida Straits. Literally the HWRF shows it getting shredded and then slowly regenerating near Cuban Coast tomorrow, but once it does regenerate it's game on.

We shall see. There's no guarantee of regeneration, and regeneration can take a very long time if it does happen.

[Cat Lady]

16 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Interesting 12z HWRF run.  It shows it getting shredded by Hispanolia but then regenerates near the Bahamas and still hits Miami-Dade at 982 mb.  Any way that's possible?

Possible - yes!  Likely? We'll see.  Given the storm is going to get shredded and *potentially* re-form, I'm not giving much confidence to the HWRF model.  We'll see what they say if the storm actually reorganizes.

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Part of what keeps everything fun is the dumbasses. Mods need to stop strangling the tropical threads that don’t have many posts anyways. 

When your opinion becomes relevant, I'll ask for your advice. Until then, please feel free to contact someone who cares.   

[SnowenOutThere]

Though the HWRF is unlikely it does make me nervous, it has a strong cat 1 or low end cat 2 hit a populated area. This would be terrible but what makes me nervous is that it hits early Saturday and 24 hours before it is not even a tropical storm, this means that Florida would get at best 1 day warning about a storm that would be rapidly intensifying. When they wake up on Friday they see a tropical depression (if they even know that because it is only a depression) by lunch and when they go to sleep it still would not be a hurricane only a tropical storm so people would go to bed to a tropical storm then when they wake up there is a hurricane outside. Seems like a bad combination, but when has the HWRF been right?

[turtlehurricane]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Though the HWRF is unlikely it does make me nervous, it has a strong cat 1 or low end cat 2 hit a populated area. This would be terrible but what makes me nervous is that it hits early Saturday and 24 hours before it is not even a tropical storm, this means that Florida would get at best 1 day warning about a storm that would be rapidly intensifying. When they wake up on Friday they see a tropical depression (if they even know that because it is only a depression) by lunch and when they go to sleep it still would not be a hurricane only a tropical storm so people would go to bed to a tropical storm then when they wake up there is a hurricane outside. Seems like a bad combination, but when has the HWRF been right?

On the other hand, the HMON (GFDL) shows it getting shredded over Hispaniola, ejecting into Guantanamo Bay as a remnant, riding up the spine of Cuba as little more than a tropical wave, before eventually undergoing genesis again in the Gulf of Mexico. The HMON scenario is far more likely. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

On the other hand, the HMON (GFDL) shows it getting shredded over Hispaniola, ejecting into Guantanamo Bay as a remnant, riding up the spine of Cuba as little more than a tropical wave, before eventually undergoing genesis again in the Gulf of Mexico. The HMON scenario is far more likely. 

Like I said when has the HWRF been right? It should almost always be used as the worst case scenario. 

[jconsor]

 

 

[Floydbuster]

Santa Domingo getting lashed pretty hard with gusts and rain via twitter videos.

[WxWatcher007]

12z Euro tries to clear the center from the coast by tomorrow morning and while it avoids Cuba, it brings it further east over Florida.

I don’t buy the stronger HWRF solution. It has been rushing intensification from what I’ve seen with Fred so far, and it can certainly take a while for a robust center to regenerate, much less become vertically aligned. And this is expected to happen in the presence of shear?

Possible, but unlikely. The 24 hours are critical to defining the ceiling of this system IMO, which I still think is relatively low.

[OKwx_2001]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

12z Euro tries to clear the center from the coast by tomorrow morning and while it avoids Cuba, it brings it further east over Florida.

I don’t buy the stronger HWRF solution. It has been rushing intensification from what I’ve seen with Fred so far, and it can certainly take a while for a robust center to regenerate, much less become vertically aligned. And this is expected to happen in the presence of shear?

Possible, but unlikely. The 24 hours are critical to defining the ceiling of this system IMO, which I still think is relatively low.

There's definitely quite a bit of possibilities. I think we'll be looking at a remnant low trying to get going in the gulf. That being said, if it can get to the gulf without much interaction with Cuba, I think it may be able to make a run for strong TS maybe even a Cat 1 hurricane. But if it gets tangled up with Cuba then there might not be anything left of it

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Santa Domingo getting lashed pretty hard with gusts and rain via twitter videos.

Fred’s presentation actually has improved markedly in last few hours with a large blowup of storms directly over what now looks like a vigorous llc. Does not surprise me to see some pretty good winds there and would not surprise me much if the storm was actually bit stronger than 40 kts at time of landfall 

[turtlehurricane]

26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Fred’s presentation actually has improved markedly in last few hours with a large blowup of storms directly over what now looks like a vigorous llc. Does not surprise me to see some pretty good winds there and would not surprise me much if the storm was actually bit stronger than 40 kts at time of landfall 

I think it is finally making northward progress too, instead of just hugging the southern coast. Everything is still really uncertain until it leaves Hispaniola, and once sun sets it's gonna be really hard to see what's going on. We'll have our answer once the sun rises tomorrow. 

[Wannabehippie]

8 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Fred looks  like  its  coming apart  before  it hits the  mountains. I think JB was a  bit  premature talking about Katrina.

All JB cares about is hype to boost page clicks.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Euro 250 mb winds (there is no low over the Panhandle on Euro) are about 10 knots less at 96 hours where NHC 10 am EDT forecast is in 96 hours than GFS winds.  That might make a difference with how much Fred strengthens.  A lot of things will affect the final strength.  WxBell tripled my price, AccuWx, models are not as good...

[WeatherAU]

12z HWRF vortmax is off the charts
CAT1-2 borderline

CURRRENT SAT:

"OVAL" spike thunderstorm -70C

[Prospero]

3 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

For the rest of you.....please carry on

Well, not sure I am in the "rest of you", but being a newbie on the internet at times since 1995 or so on countless forums, and on this storm forum for over two years, I believe (paying some $$$ dues as well), I might be. If not, at least I am a very passionate outside the rest of you who might be a dumbass at times, but having as much or more fun than anyone.

I was on the road all day which is fine. I knew Fred was inching its way over the island so didn't worry about missing too much. It would have been a tedious day to wait for every new sat image to appear, and even though checking here on my phone, not much has changed since early this morning.

In fact, likely a long night ahead too without any startling new developments. I will wake up in the middle of the night and check though, of course.

That said, it is exciting in its own way to see if Fred survives the hike over these mountains. Are many of us NOT sitting on the edges of our seats waiting? Can't wait for morning to see what happens!!

I don't recall any storm being destroyed on this trek over Hispaniola since I joined AmericaWX in the 2019 season. Anyone remember differently?

 

[buckeyefan1]

23 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Well, not sure I am in the "rest of you", but being a newbie on the internet at times since 1995 or so on countless forums, and on this storm forum for over two years, I believe (paying some $$$ dues as well), I might be. If not, at least I am a very passionate outside the rest of you who might be a dumbass at times, but having as much or more fun than anyone.

I was on the road all day which is fine. I knew Fred was inching its way over the island so didn't worry about missing too much. It would have been a tedious day to wait for every new sat image to appear, and even though checking here on my phone, not much has changed since early this morning.

In fact, likely a long night ahead too without any startling new developments. I will wake up in the middle of the night and check though, of course.

That said, it is exciting in its own way to see if Fred survives the hike over these mountains. Are many of us NOT sitting on the edges of our seats waiting? Can't wait for morning to see what happens!!

I don't recall any storm being destroyed on this trek over Hispaniola since I joined AmericaWX in the 2019 season. Anyone remember differently?

 

Shrederola gets its name honestly