WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 The latest VDM for Fred Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 23:57ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 Storm Name: FredStorm Number & Year: 06 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 14Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 23:28:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.09N 85.69WB. Center Fix Location: 207 statute miles (333 km) to the WSW (253°) from Tampa, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,432m (4,698ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 85° at 4kts (From the E at 5mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 35kts (40.3mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix at 23:06:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 78° at 32kts (From the ENE at 36.8mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix at 23:05:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 38kts (43.7mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix at 23:50:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 206° at 35kts (From the SSW at 40.3mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix at 23:51:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.75 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) which was observed 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the SE (130°) from the flight level center at 23:51:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Looking at Tropical Tidbits recon vs satellite loop, they have not sampled the highest winds yet. I think this could make a run at minimal Cat 1 before landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 Definitely on an upswing intensity wise. Good FL wind spikes on the eastern side of the system. Some of those are probably convection/burst related, but we weren’t seeing those before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Definitely on an upswing intensity wise. Good FL wind spikes on the eastern side of the system. Some of those are probably convection/burst related, but we weren’t seeing those before. Center still not under that deep convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 Just now, Wannabehippie said: Center still not under that deep convection Yeah, it’s still getting sheared a bit so getting right up under the convection is difficult, but the burst near the center (what looks like a curved band) and prior pressure drop are illustrative of an organizing phase IMO. We’ll see if that’s actually the case on the next pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 35 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Center still not under that deep convection I think it was for a moment. But I haven't looked at TropicalTidBits and I should learn it better. I spent the afternoon in Photoshop with a grid I made to the 10ths of a degree Lats and Lons trying to map the NOAA LLC points and superimposing sats over it to see what exactly was going on. Hardly a perfect method especially after 30 minutes goes by and longer with the storm moving along.... Nice blowup going on even though surely displaced a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 Not much change on that center pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not much change on that center pass. My little arrow was slightly too far right based on the TidBit image. Convection did not wrap around it fully, shear got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 New dropsonde data suggests 999 mb at the center. However, over the last hour the surface center and convection have become detached. The surface center appears to have drifted westward and is now totally exposed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 Latest VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 1:55ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305Storm Name: FredStorm Number & Year: 06 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 14Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 1:30:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.98N 86.05WB. Center Fix Location: 230 statute miles (371 km) to the WSW (253°) from Tampa, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 160° at 22kts (From the SSE at 25mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 40kts (46.0mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix at 1:09:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 107° at 44kts (From the ESE at 50.6mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 62 nautical miles (71 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix at 1:11:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 34kts (39.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the W (272°) of center fix at 1:32:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 13° at 30kts (From the NNE at 34.5mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the W (272°) of center fix at 1:32:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) which was observed 95 nautical miles (109 statute miles) to the E (94°) from the flight level center at 0:22:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Very lopsided right now due to that persistent shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: New dropsonde data suggests 999 mb at the center. However, over the last hour the surface center and convection have become detached. The surface center appears to have drifted westward and is now totally exposed. Yep--looks like the center got shunted a little SW per the VDM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yep--looks like the center got shunted a little SW per the VDM Can see it on visible a little. SW, wow. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Orlando-truecolor-12-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Prospero said: My little arrow was slightly too far right based on the TidBit image. Convection did not wrap around it fully, shear got it. Is that towering circle to SSE a part of it, helping it or hurting it or no effect ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yep--looks like the center got shunted a little SW per the VDM I wouldn't have believed it if I couldn't see it on the visible! LOL Oh well, I have to go to bed. My Sunday fun is over, will be up at 4 and see what is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 GFS really strengthens Fred down to 983 mb at landfall that is pretty dramatic should be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Looks like Fred might become a hurricane before landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Circulation seems very to completely exposed via recon positioning, but not certain without visible satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 It looks like Fred is making an attempt at organizing/intensifying once again. Radar out of northern Florida shows the center once again trying to wrap convection around and increased velocities around the apparent center. IR shows what seems to be Fred's best appearance yet. If the center can stay under the convection and the convection wrap around, this could make a run at a minimal hurricane. Either way, this is likely to be a big rainmaker for a good part of the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 This looks like its going to be another Gulf landfalling storm that is strengthening as it comes it. Looking considerably more impressive on IR this morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 House has been swaying off and on since 2:00 AM. Steady 25 to 30 mph wind now. Looks like the bad stuff is a couple of hours away. I will post some pics when we get some more daylight. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, Seminole said: House has been swaying off and on since 2:00 AM. Steady 25 to 30 mph wind now. Looks like the bad stuff is a couple of hours away. I will post some pics when we get some more daylight. Was just checking the winds up there. Looks like you might take the brunt of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Interesting geography note: if Fred goes due north it would hit the piece of land jutting out. But the models all show it making a slight turn to the northwest bringing it into the bend between Destin and Panama City. This track would give it another good hour or more of intensification. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 So far the strongest winds seem to be at the West Tampa Buoy which is the convection right now. Note the 11.8 ft waves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 An impressive NW to SE pass by recon. 993.0mb extrapolated. Unflagged SFMR of 46kts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 First VDM. Next pass likely to be a NE to SW pass. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 12:36ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303Storm Name: FredStorm Number & Year: 06 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 15Observation Number: 02 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 11:57:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 28.72N 85.61WB. Center Fix Location: 101 statute miles (162 km) to the S (178°) from Panama City, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 622m (2,041ft) at 925mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg) - ExtrapolatedE. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 42kts (48.3mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the SSW (194°) of center fix at 11:54:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 350° at 49kts (From the N at 56.4mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix at 11:49:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 46kts (52.9mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the ESE (113°) of center fix at 12:03:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 201° at 55kts (From the SSW at 63.3mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the ESE (116°) of center fix at 12:03:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 757m (2,484ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 770m (2,526ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 925mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ESE (116°) from the flight level center at 12:03:30ZSea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mbMaximum Flight Level Temp: 27°C (81°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the S (183°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 730 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRED INTENSIFYING AND LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Fred is intensifying this morning, and now has maximum sustained winds near 60 mph (95 km/h), with an estimated minimum central pressure of 993 mb (29.32 inches). Data from the aircraft and National Weather Service Doppler radar indicate that Fred is now moving toward the north at 10 mph (17 km/h). SUMMARY OF 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 85.6W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan/Pasch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 8 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: GFS really strengthens Fred down to 983 mb at landfall that is pretty dramatic should be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. GFS might not be terribly far off given what we're seeing so far this morning. Very impressive pressure drop. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Minimal hurricane at landfall is not impossible, but any hiccup in intensification tend and that's off the table. w/only 6-7 hours until landfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 I'm over here in Tampa on my way to Clearwater. But you can certainly tell there is a storm in the GOM. Very dark and the bay is choppy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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