Floydbuster Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Temps in Tampa Bay show almost 87°! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Deep convection is beginning to wrap upshear, north of the LLC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Looks like a non-linear increase in intensity is about to happen based on vis. A step-wise jump from minimal TS to something more akin to a minimal Hurricane... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 51 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Recon found 52 knot flight winds and GFS is now showing a 995 mb landfall. I think the panhandle is gonna be in for a surprise. Could be. It’s still sheared but it’s looking better structurally and it’s over some of the warmest water in the basin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Here we go…..A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of theFlorida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line..Just an update TS warnings start at the Santa Rosa/Okaloosa county line. Navarre is actually under a TS Watch.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Looks like a non-linear increase in intensity is about to happen based on vis. May I ask, what is a "non-linear" increase"? Conditions in Gulfport, FL: Light rain here with a steady 15-20 mph breeze. Looks like we'll have that for now on and both will increase some as the day goes on. There was a 32 mpg gust at Surfside Condos on Clearwater Beach a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 12Z Ukmet is quite a bit east of the NHC forecast track with it crossing the FL/GA/AL point and then moving NNE through GA instead of AL: TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 84.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.08.2021 0 25.6N 84.6W 1010 30 0000UTC 16.08.2021 12 26.7N 86.0W 1006 36 1200UTC 16.08.2021 24 28.0N 86.1W 1004 35 0000UTC 17.08.2021 36 29.3N 85.8W 1001 38 1200UTC 17.08.2021 48 31.1N 85.0W 1005 30 0000UTC 18.08.2021 60 33.3N 84.0W 1007 24 1200UTC 18.08.2021 72 37.3N 82.3W 1012 15 0000UTC 19.08.2021 84 39.3N 80.2W 1014 25 1200UTC 19.08.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z Ukmet is quite a bit east of the NHC forecast track: TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 84.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.08.2021 0 25.6N 84.6W 1010 30 0000UTC 16.08.2021 12 26.7N 86.0W 1006 36 1200UTC 16.08.2021 24 28.0N 86.1W 1004 35 0000UTC 17.08.2021 36 29.3N 85.8W 1001 38 1200UTC 17.08.2021 48 31.1N 85.0W 1005 30 0000UTC 18.08.2021 60 33.3N 84.0W 1007 24 1200UTC 18.08.2021 72 37.3N 82.3W 1012 15 0000UTC 19.08.2021 84 39.3N 80.2W 1014 25 1200UTC 19.08.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING That's a landfall at about Panama City Beach, or right on Mexico Beach. UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 12Z UKMET gives flooding rainfall from SW GA through SW VA keeping in mind that this is based on a track that’s well east of 11 AM NHC track: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 46 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Just an update TS warnings start at the Santa Rosa/Okaloosa county line. Navarre is actually under a TS Watch. . Under a warning now. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Looks to me like the LLC is moving almost due north on sats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Under a warning now.A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of theFlorida Panhandle from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River.A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of theFlorida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border toNavarreThe wording is confusing it should start with Mary Esther FL for the warning . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 First time I remember seeing a convection burst directly over the LLC of Fred. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 42 minutes ago, Prospero said: First time I remember seeing a convection burst directly over the LLC of Fred. Is the shear lessening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Is the shear lessening? The convection is blowing up likely due to the temperature of the Gulf and the LLC underneath is towards the southwestern part of the burst. But if it stacks up and doesn't blow off we'll have something more interesting to watch for a while. Still seems to be tracking north, at least the past couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 42 mph gust at the Pensacola Buoy and the West Tampa Buoy within the last few minutes. 34 mph at the Skyway Fishing Pier on Tampa Bay. Having out first driving rain from some storms that came from inland. Looks like we are on the edge of a TS! Convection hanging onto the LLC so far. Time to switch from coffee to beer! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Another E shift on the guidance for the 18Z run. I’m out of it now, & will have to mow tomorrow….ugh!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 59 mph gust at Albert Whitted Airport here in St Pete just now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 30 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Another E shift on the guidance for the 18Z run. I’m out of it now, & will have to mow tomorrow….ugh! . Going to take a right hook here at SGI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 45 MPH at 5 PM Forecast peak bumped up to 60 MPH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Another burst of convection over the LLC. Funny, Fred has lost interest of almost everybody around here. The forum will pick up later I guess. The band we had earlier may be the worst we get here in Tampa Bay. At least it was in the daytime and I was up to watch it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 31 minutes ago, Prospero said: Another burst of convection over the LLC. Funny, Fred has lost interest of almost everybody around here. The forum will pick up later I guess. The band we had earlier may be the worst we get here in Tampa Bay. At least it was in the daytime and I was up to watch it! I was out while Fred was in the grave but I’m back now! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I was out while Fred was in the grave but I’m back now! I was about to claim I saw an eye to see if anybody was awake. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Prospero said: I was about to claim I saw an eye to see if anybody was awake. LOL Fred isn’t the strongest system ever but I’m impressed by how it has gotten itself off the mat. I expected it to an extent, but it’s really holding tough in the center in the face of moderate shear. Wind is one thing, but there’s a serious flash flooding threat for parts of the SE as this makes its way inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 999.6 MB extrapolated on latest recon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Fred isn’t the strongest system ever but I’m impressed by how it has gotten itself off the mat. I expected it to an extent, but it’s really holding tough in the center in the face of moderate shear. Wind is one thing, but there’s a serious flash flooding threat for parts of the SE as this makes its way inland. Yea, not the wildest storm I've been near. But all I have for a Sunday afternoon that I have been planning on for a week or so. All in all, I'm satisfied for what we have seen around Tampa Bay. Fun enough for me. We might get more tonight, but it will not be costly or painful. There is a band coming in that I'll stay up for. Plus it is very hard to complain about any day in August around here when the temperatures stay in the low 80's and upper 70's with a breeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: 999.6 MB extrapolated on latest recon Was just about to post. Pretty interesting drop. Would like to see what’s happening NE of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 Confirmed pressure drop to 1000mb in center. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 23:40ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 Storm Name: FredStorm Number: 06 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 14Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 23Z on the 15th day of the monthHighest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mbCoordinates: 27.1N 85.7WLocation: 207 statute miles (334 km) to the WSW (253°) from Tampa, FL, USA.Marsden Square: 081 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -3m (-10 ft) Other data not available. 925mb 686m (2,251 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 21.9°C (71°F) 170° (from the S) 3 knots (3 mph) 850mb 1,431m (4,695 ft) 24.6°C (76.3°F) About 15°C (59°F) 20° (from the NNE) 12 knots (14 mph) Information About Radiosonde:- Launch Time: 23:28Z- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.Highest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 27.11N 85.68W- Time: 23:28:27ZLowest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 27.11N 85.68W- Time: 23:30:42ZMean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 115° (from the ESE)- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 45° (from the NE)- Wind Speed: 2 knots (2 mph)- Depth of Sounding: From 844mb to 999mbAverage Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)- Wind Direction: 95° (from the E)- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Coordinates: 27.1N 85.7W Interesting, that is kind of in the middle of the convection: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Prospero said: Coordinates: 27.1N 85.7W Interesting, that is kind of in the middle of the convection: Great image grab. It’s trying hard to develop an inner core. If it can wrap all the way around and close off, the rate of intensification could increase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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