turtlehurricane Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Just now, Wannabehippie said: How well has the HWRF handled Fred so far? Well, the HWRF has managed to illustrate every possible scenario. It's been all over the place. Just saying, what's going on now with center re-formation near the Keys is one of the scenarios from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 Slowly but surely, Fred is pulling itself together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Up early this morning, prep will begin as watches have been hoisted. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Fred looks better this morning. Yesterday was a relatively cool quiet cloudy day around weather wise. This morning we can feel a decent breeze from Fred and there is that "feel" of a Tropical system. If I were a little kid I would say we feel the "big air" moving. I don't have any plans to secure anything except move a few potted plants to the ground and put away anything that can fly around with bigger breezes. It does look like we could be scraped by the edge of some bands later with rain and some wind, although probably not TS strength. That is still fun enough for me. Looks like the cone inched back east a little bit overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Just now, NavarreDon said: Up early this morning, prep will begin as watches have been hoisted. . What are you prepping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 50 mph gust at Alligator Reef Lighthouse which is pretty far east of Fred right now. So as it regains its TS status we'll see more of these pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 56 minutes ago, Prospero said: Fred looks better this morning. Yesterday was a relatively cool quiet cloudy day around weather wise. This morning we can feel a decent breeze from Fred and there is that "feel" of a Tropical system. If I were a little kid I would say we feel the "big air" moving. I don't have any plans to secure anything except move a few potted plants to the ground and put away anything that can fly around with bigger breezes. It does look like we could be scraped by the edge of some bands later with rain and some wind, although probably not TS strength. That is still fun enough for me. Looks like the cone inched back east a little bit overnight. The convection is trying to wrap around what appears to be the LLC, but that ULL is still causing the convection to be displaced. It is like every time some wraps around, it gets blown to the east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Modfan2 said: What are you prepping? LOL, not a lot to prep for! Secure some things in the yard, gas in vehicles (due to others), ect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 Fred has regained TS status. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM... Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Fred has regained tropical storm status over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings will be issued for portions of the northern Gulf coast on the 11 AM EDT/ 10 AM CDT/1500 UTC advisory. SUMMARY OF 840 AM EDT...1240 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 84.7W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone UpdateNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM...Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Fred has regained tropical storm status over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings will be issued for portions of the northern Gulf coast on the 11 AM EDT/ 10 AM CDT/1500 UTC advisory.SUMMARY OF 840 AM EDT...1240 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...25.9N 84.7WABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES$$Forecaster Beven No doubt Fred has a well-defined LLC per early visual this morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 Just now, Windspeed said: No doubt Fred has a well-defined LLC per early visual this morning. 24 hours ago I couldn’t imagine it’d look better than Grace, but here we are lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Fred ain't dead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Recon finding some impressive winds NE of the center. Interested to see what they say at 11am. Hurricane watches going up for the panhandle? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 We just ran out to St Pete Beach to get an omelette at the best breakfast place in Pinellas County, "The Frog Pond," just in case Fred does some kind of wild RI and makes a hard unexpected right turn towards the coast like Charlie did at the last moment and destroys all our favorite beach places as a Cat 3. You know, "just in case." The weather is very nice right now, cool and cloudy with a nice steady off-shore breeze. The sky is very dark over the Gulf. Image below from Clearwater Beach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 I just noticed this wind gust of 74 mph at 6:20 this morning at Conch Key. As far as I know this is the highest recorded wind so far in the US from Fred. But I have not looked much yet. If we get only one gust like that in Gulfport, FL we'll still have some issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 What is the source of that data? That peak looks suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Stormfly said: What is the source of that data? That peak looks suspicious. SailFlow is where I look. There was a 50 mph gust at Alligator Reef Lighthouse a few miles from there around 15 minutes later that I posted earlier. I'm sure it was a line of thunderstorms that passed over the eastern keys in an outer band. I would suspect a waterspout made this spike, but it appears the 60 mph winds lasted about 15 minutes or so which is more in line with a severe thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Atleast he's free of land. That's helping the convection fire big time over the Gulf bathwater. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Only thing that is probably keeping Fred from deepening quickly is that persistent shear. You can see the well defined LLC, but the convection is to the east of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Only thing that is probably keeping Fred from deepening quickly is that persistent shear. You can see the well defined LLC, but the convection is to the east of it. Elsa and Fred, sitting in a tree... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 11:00 am discussion: The center re-formed northward during the redevelopment process, and the initial position is re-located to the north of the previous advisory position. While the forecast guidance is basically unchanged in calling for a north-northwest motion followed by a turn toward the north near landfall on the northern Gulf coast, the new initial position requires the forecast track to be shifted about 40 n mi to the east of the previous track through the landfall time. Fred is now expected to make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle sometime Monday afternoon or evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 On 8/12/2021 at 9:32 AM, SandySurvivor said: I am flying into Miami today in preparation of chasing Fred after looking at the latest HWRF. Little nervous about chasing this in the Keys with potential surge issues. @SandySurvivor Did you get chasing in? How did it go? Any pix or video clips? I guess Key West would have been the best location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Don’t see any reason why Fred doesn’t make a run at a weak cane before landfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 This is setting up to bring unneeded heavy rain for the Atlanta area. Most of that area has had above normal rainfall this summer and thus this could be setting them up for flooding concerns. The NHC projected track 100 or so miles to their west and northwest into NE AL is the type of track that often brings them multiple inches of rain within a short period. Fortunately, it looks to not be a slow mover, however (more like average speed for a TC in that area in August). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Here we go…..A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of theFlorida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Recon found 52 knot flight winds and GFS is now showing a 995 mb landfall. I think the panhandle is gonna be in for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Panama City Beach is still not fully recovered from Michael. Would hate to see even a Cat 1 going though that area again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now