Tropical Storm Fred

[Prospero]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I don’t want to see this thread 36 hours from now if “Fred” maintains its current form during that period 

I never liked the idea of a "Fred" anyway. A "Freida", sure. But Fred??

"I survived Hurricane Fred." I don't like it.

Yabba dabba do?

Sorry, it is my age and what I grew up watching.

[Prospero]

Every night this week my wife asks me, the resident house met, "Well, what's it going to do?"

Tuesday night: "We'll know in the morning. Some say a hurricane, others say it is dead."

Wednesday night: "We'll know in the morning. Some say a hurricane, others say it is dead."

Last night: "We'll know in the morning. Some say a hurricane, others say it is dead."

Tonight: "We'll know in the morning. Some say a hurricane, others say it is dead."

[NavarreDon]

Obviously it’s a filthy mess but this always raises the eyebrow!!!!




.

[Akeem the African Dream]

it stopped raining for now 

just under 8” with most of that falling in a little over 2 hours 

 

[eyes2theskies]

6.5 inches here.

[Akeem the African Dream]

7 minutes ago, eyes2theskies said:

6.5 inches here.

some of the worst street flooding I have seen in several years here. 

 

should probably clear 10” by midnight with the activity building up and about to move in off the ocean

[eyes2theskies]

Wow Akeem...Glad I am not driving around was down there earlier today. Was just looking at radar. I think 10 inches is a good call by morning. with another 6-10 over the next two days.

 

[Prospero]

11:00 pm:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Middle and Upper Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef has been discontinued,
including Florida Bay.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued.

Discussion excerpt:

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Interaction with land and southwesterly shear has continued to take
a toll on Fred this evening.  It is very difficult to determine in
infrared satellite imagery and recent surface observations from
Cuba if a closed circulation still exists, however the system is
maintained as a tropical depression for now.  Scatterometer data,
which should arrive very soon, and reconnaissance aircraft
observations on Saturday morning should provide additional
information on the system's intensity and structure.

The system still appears to be moving moving westward or 280/11 kt.
There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning from the
previous advisory.  The cyclone is approaching the western periphery
of a subtropical ridge extending over the western Atlantic, and Fred
should turn west-northwestward overnight, and then northwestward on
Saturday.  The track guidance has again shifted westward, but the
shift is not as large as was noted on the previous cycle.  The NHC
track forecast has been adjusted to the left, closer to the
consensus aids, but it still remains to the east of those models.
Some additional westward adjustments in subsequent forecasts may be 
required.

As mentioned above, land interaction and southwesterly vertical
will limit any attempt of re-organization overnight, however the
system is expected to move off the northern coast of Cuba Saturday
morning and the global model guidance suggests that a center
re-formation could occur over the western portion of the Straits of
Florida.  The center re-formation shown by the guidance appears 
to be aided by an area of upper-level diffluent flow to the 
southeast of an upper-level trough currently located over the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Although only a little strengthening is 
indicated in the official forecast through 36 hours, the environment 
could become a little more conducive on Sunday, and the NHC wind 
speed forecast again calls for gradual strengthening while Fred 
moves northwestward over the eastern Gulf.  The updated intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of
the statistical guidance and the HCCA model.  The intensity forecast 
continues to be of lower-than-normal confidence given the current 
disorganized structure of the system.

[WxWatcher007]

Wow. That’s impressive. 
 

Look at this track shift in 24 hours. Quite unusual for the NHC. Should be noted that the end point is still inside the original cone.

last night 

 

tonight

[nwohweather]

Just what Mobile needs, more rain…

[yoda]

Lol 

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

The interaction with the landmass of Cuba has significantly 
disrupted the circulation of Fred.  In fact, radar data from Cuba, 
satellite images, earlier ASCAT data, and surface observations 
suggest that the system is likely an open trough with the strongest 
winds and deep convection occurring to the south of central Cuba.  
Fred is being maintained as a tropical depression for now, but data 
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters later this morning will likely 
confirm if it is a depression or not.  The initial intensity is 
held at 30 kt based on the aforementioned ASCAT data.  Bands of 
heavy rain are now spreading across the Florida Keys.

The initial motion of 295/11 kt is highly uncertain since its not 
clear if Fred has a center.  Even though the storm has moved farther 
west than previously expected, the overall track forecast reasoning 
has not changed much.  Fred is expected to turn northwestward by 
tonight and northward by Sunday night as the cyclone rounds the 
western periphery of a subtropical ridge.  The new track forecast 
has been nudged to the west again to be in better agreement with the 
latest model consensus aids.  Based on the new track forecast, Fred 
is expected to pass west of the lower Florida Keys later today and 
make landfall along the western Florida Panhandle or Alabama coast 
Monday night or early Tuesday.

Although Fred is very disorganized at the moment, the global models 
show the circulation becoming better defined tonight or on Sunday as 
the cyclone moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in slightly lower 
wind shear conditions.  The storm is expected to strengthen some 
during the next couple of days, but significant intensification 
seems unlikely as southerly shear is anticipated to increase before 
the system reaches the Gulf coast on Monday.  GFS and ECMWF 
simulated satellite images show an asymmetric cyclone with most of 
the associated convection and stronger winds on its east side while 
Fred moves across the Gulf of Mexico. After landfall, steady 
weakening is expected, and Fred is likely to dissipate by the middle 
of next week.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of 
the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, 
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river 
flooding, across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.  
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into 
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central 
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the 
area. 

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Lower
Florida Keys later today, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

3. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Florida 
Panhandle and coastal Alabama beginning on Monday.  Watches may be 
required for a portion of this area later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 23.3N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 24.0N  83.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 25.4N  84.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 27.0N  85.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 28.4N  86.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  16/1800Z 29.8N  87.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 30.9N  87.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/0600Z 34.4N  86.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[yoda]

10 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

Well Shabbos is starting. Turning on the weather radio for the duration of the Shabbos, and gonna hunker down! Kind've fun going through a storm without internet. When the squalls hit it will be a surprise every time. I'll report back tomorrow night!

How was the TD?

[Wannabehippie]

So. where exactly is the closed LLC of Fred at?

[cptcatz]

1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said:

So. where exactly is the closed LLC of Fred at?

NHC said in the 5am disco that there probably isn't one. 

[Prospero]

6 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

So. where exactly is the closed LLC of Fred at?
 

If there is one we might see it on radar. Probably not, but there could be a slightest hint at some circulation.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-S_Florida-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data

[Prospero]

20 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

So. where exactly is the closed LLC of Fred at?
 

Or according to the NOAA at 8 am it is right about here:

 

[Prospero]

Smith Shoal Lighthouse is approaching TS conditions. The pressure is slightly lower than what NOAA has for Fred at 1012MB.

 

[Windspeed]

Strong earthquake just hit Haiti. With all the heavy rain there, that's not good. Hopefully any landslides that may've occurred were minimal.

[Kevin Reilly]

It’s a bit frustrating watching some weather outlets continuing to garner as many ratings as they can in regards to Fred!  This system should be declassified it’s an open wave and most of the weather around it support a few passing clouds a shower with partly sunny conditions.  I mean we are tracking a 1013-1014 mb low that’s a weak high pressure system.  Between the over hyped 90L the first to be Fred candidate and now this system it’s all ratings and clicks to me.  Now I’m done bantering!  It’s dangerous to be overhyping because when the “real” storm comes no one will take it seriously since all you are worried about but ratings and clicks!

 

There is something else that has caught my eyes outside of Tropical Storm Grace.  I have circled a system moving SSW not too far from Bermuda. The models off and on had this system so it’s worth keeping an eye on it in addition to Grace.  The only limiting factor probably will be shear as a cold front and associated jet head off the mid Atlantic coast.  It will be interesting to see if this system ducks under the trough heading off the Mid Atlantic and heads for the Carolinas. 

Unfortunately cannot upload my pic but check out the visible satellite near Bermuda.

[NavarreDon]

.

[WxWatcher007]

Fred is dead. For now.  

[olafminesaw]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Strong earthquake just hit Haiti. With all the heavy rain there, that's not good. Hopefully any landslides that may've occurred were minimal.

In the same region that got smashed by cat 4 Matthew too

[Windspeed]

[NavarreDon]

Looks like some towers around what was the center of Fred?


.

[Prospero]

040 
WTNT41 KNHC 142039
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that a broad and elongated
circulation has formed in association with the remnants of Fred, and
that the convection has become more concentrated at the east end of
the elongated center.  However, neither the circulation nor the
convection are organized enough to justify calling the system a
tropical cyclone at this time.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to survey the remnants of Fred this
evening to see how far the re-development has progressed.

The initial motion is a still very uncertain 300/11.  The system is 
expected to move northwestward around the western periphery of the 
subtropical ridge, with a turn toward the north expected as the 
system nears and moves inland along the northern Gulf coast in 48-60 
h.  The forecast guidance remains in good agreement on this general 
scenario and the new NHC forecast track is close the the consensus 
models. However, some adjustments to the track forecast could occur 
depending on where the center of Fred re-forms.  Therefore, users 
should not concentrate on the details of the forecast track, which 
could change quite a bit during the next day or so.

The global models are now in better agreement that the upper-level
trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that has been hindering
the development of Fred will move northward and weaken during the
next 24 h.  They also indicate that Fred is likely to re-form
a well-defined closed circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Sunday morning.  Thus, the intensity forecast now calls for Fred to
regain tropical cyclone status in about 12 h, followed by gradual
strengthening until landfall in a less than ideal upper-level wind
environment.  After landfall, the system should weaken and
dissipate between 96-120 h.  The new NHC intensity forecast follows 
the overall trend of the intensity guidance.

Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect,
the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on
the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development.  Watches
could be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight,
and warnings may be required on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river
flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the 
Gulf of Mexico tonight or on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical 
storm conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially 
from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on 
Monday.  Watches may be required for a portion of this area 
tonight, and warnings may be required on Sunday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 24.0N  84.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...DISTURBANCE
 12H  15/0600Z 25.0N  85.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  15/1800Z 26.6N  87.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 28.0N  87.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 29.4N  88.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 30.9N  88.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  17/1800Z 32.4N  88.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/1800Z 36.0N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[turtlehurricane]

Well, we got some drizzle last night, not a drop of rain today at all! Just breezy with lots of clouds. 

It looks like some bands are finally going to be moving in though, lots of lightning flashing through sky and winds picking up.

BTW, Key West Radar indicates that Fred is re-forming WAY to the east of it's current center fix. Basically the new circulation is moving due north from Cuba towards the Dry Tortugas. So expect a huge track shift. 

[cptcatz]

Anyone know what rain totals are like in Cuba?  I feel like intense convection has been sitting over Cuba for the past two days...

[Wannabehippie]

14 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Well, we got some drizzle last night, not a drop of rain today at all! Just breezy with lots of clouds. 

It looks like some bands are finally going to be moving in though, lots of lightning flashing through sky and winds picking up.

BTW, Key West Radar indicates that Fred is re-forming WAY to the east of it's current center fix. Basically the new circulation is moving due north from Cuba towards the Dry Tortugas. So expect a huge track shift. 

 

16 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Well, we got some drizzle last night, not a drop of rain today at all! Just breezy with lots of clouds. 

It looks like some bands are finally going to be moving in though, lots of lightning flashing through sky and winds picking up.

BTW, Key West Radar indicates that Fred is re-forming WAY to the east of it's current center fix. Basically the new circulation is moving due north from Cuba towards the Dry Tortugas. So expect a huge track shift. 

Fred is such a mess, I don't think you can call anything involved with it 'banding'

[turtlehurricane]

A really awesome squall line just came through, torrential sideways rain, a stiff breeze near tropical storm force. It was worth the wait. Even though this is a disorganized wreck, the rainbands are stronger than a lot of the hurricanes that have near-missed us in the past. The atmosphere is just really juicy and unstable. 

Yeah this thing definitely has bans, a big one over South Florida, another over the Keys, and some inner-bands near the reforming center north of Havana. 

The HWRF actually showed this scenario on some runs, where center reforms and moves due north from Cuba to Florida West Coast. 

[Wannabehippie]

11 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

A really awesome squall line just came through, torrential sideways rain, a stiff breeze near tropical storm force. It was worth the wait. Even though this is a disorganized wreck, the rainbands are stronger than a lot of the hurricanes that have near-missed us in the past. The atmosphere is just really juicy and unstable. 

Yeah this thing definitely has bans, a big one over South Florida, another over the Keys, and some inner-bands near the reforming center north of Havana. 

The HWRF actually showed this scenario on some runs, where center reforms and moves due north from Cuba to Florida West Coast. 

How well has the HWRF handled Fred so far?