Tropical Storm Fred

[turtlehurricane]

It's starting to look like a bonafide tropical cyclone again https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-01-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Not sure exactly what's happening but it's sending out spiral bands in all direction, including the entire Cuban Seabreeze front which has effectively become a spiral band. 

Starting to get excited again. That whole mass of weather is coming towards South Florida. 

[cptcatz]

21 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

It's starting to look like a bonafide tropical cyclone again https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-01-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Not sure exactly what's happening but it's sending out spiral bands in all direction, including the entire Cuban Seabreeze front which has effectively become a spiral band. 

Starting to get excited again. That whole mass of weather is coming towards South Florida. 

Am I missing something?  Looks like a hot mess to me.

[SandySurvivor]

26 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

It's starting to look like a bonafide tropical cyclone again https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-01-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Not sure exactly what's happening but it's sending out spiral bands in all direction, including the entire Cuban Seabreeze front which has effectively become a spiral band. 

Starting to get excited again. That whole mass of weather is coming towards South Florida. 

 

4 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Am I missing something?  Looks like a hot mess to me.

Weather is slowly deteriorating here.  Partly Sunny with winds around 15mph.

 

[Prospero]

The weather in Florida is volatile as all get out. If a seagull flaps a wing it starts a thunderstorm right now. Whatever is left of Fred will create a powerful ripple of weather across the state.

[SnowenOutThere]

Where even is the center, does it even still have one? It has convection but where is the center did it transfer to the main convection blowup south of Cuba, is it along the coast of Florida or something else? 

[eyes2theskies]

18z models trended way west

[Seminole]

6 minutes ago, eyes2theskies said:

18z models trended way west

Which may explain why the last NHC disco hinted at the intensity forecast shifting a little higher. 

[Wannabehippie]

46 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Where even is the center, does it even still have one? It has convection but where is the center did it transfer to the main convection blowup south of Cuba, is it along the coast of Florida or something else? 

LLC still seems to be along the northern coast of Cuba. 

[Jessy89]

Really the biggest story from Fred might be the flooding rains the Appalachian mountains ring out. 3-6 inch bullseye remains over parts of upstate sc and parts of western nc


.

[NavarreDon]

18z models trended way west

I’m watching.


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[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Although there has been a general increase in convection
associated with Fred since this morning, the system remains
disorganized with the low-level center moving farther inland over
central Cuba. Earlier ASCAT data detected an area of 25-27 kt
winds over water to the northeast of the center, and based on that
data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt, which could be a
little generous.

Since the previous advisory, Fred has been moving nearly due 
westward, but the longer-term motion is estimated to be 280/10 kt. 
The cyclone is nearing the western periphery of a subtropical ridge 
that is centered over the western Atlantic. This should cause Fred 
to turn west-northwestward tonight, and then northwestward 
on Saturday. The latest interpolated guidance that was 
initialized with the more southward and westward 18Z initial 
position shows a wider or more gradual northwestward turn, and 
therefore has shifted significantly westward, especially in the 
short term.  However, the global models fields track the 850-mb 
vorticity center more along the northern coast of Cuba and some of 
those models suggest a center re-formation could occur on Saturday 
near the north coast of Cuba or over the Straits of Florida. As a 
result, the first 24-36 hours of the track forecast has been 
adjusted about a degree westward, but it is not as far west as the 
trackers, leaving open the possibility that a center re-formation 
could occur. After that time, the NHC forecast lies along the 
eastern side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the 12Z 
GFS.  Some additional westward adjustments may be necessary until 
the track guidance stabilizes. It is worth noting that it isn't too 
surprising to see these type of models shifts with a system that 
remains quite disorganized.

Fred remains within an area of moderate southwesterly vertical wind 
shear, and the model guidance generally indicates that this shear 
will continue during the next day or so. Since it will also take 
time for the system to recover after its passage over Cuba, only 
gradual strengthening is indicated during the next day or two. After 
that time, the system could be in a somewhat more favorable 
environment, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for some 
strengthening until Fred reaches the northern Gulf Coast, which now 
doesn't occur until around 72 hours with the wider turn shown in 
the track forecast. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the 
various consensus aids, the statistical guidance, and the HWRF 
model, which all generally show the system peaking in 60-72 hours. 
The intensity forecast remains of lower-than-normal confidence due 
to Fred's continued interaction with land.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and a chance of tornadoes will extend
far to northeast and east of the center, and those hazards are
likely to still affect portions of the Florida peninsula, despite
the recent shift in the forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
small stream, and exacerbated river flooding across southern and
central Florida into the Big Bend.  From Sunday onward, heavy rain
and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast
and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred
interacts with a front in that area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and
early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the
Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions
will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the
Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 22.3N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  14/0600Z 23.0N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  14/1800Z 24.2N  82.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  15/0600Z 25.4N  83.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 27.0N  84.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 28.8N  85.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 30.2N  86.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 33.5N  86.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  18/1800Z 37.0N  85.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

[Prospero]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Where even is the center, does it even still have one? It has convection but where is the center did it transfer to the main convection blowup south of Cuba, is it along the coast of Florida or something else? 

It is easy to lose where the center is. This forum has a lot of opinions and of course watching sats we get our own ideas. But when all else fails I refer back to the NOAA. And I look at the cone image where there is an "X" where they say the center is. Sometimes it goes against everything you read here, like last night, or what we think we see, but it is a good solid "back to reality" more often than not. See below, the 5 pm updates:

Side note:

Quote

I'm in my teens so...

In my teens we didn't even have the Weather Channel. I can't say we even had radar on the TV news. But next to "Bugs Bunny / Road Runner Hour", the local weather news was my favorite TV event since I was about 5 or 6 years old. "How much snow would we get?" "How much rain?" "Is there a Hurricane coming?"

Every day, twice a day; morning and evening, I wanted to be THE weather guy. How exciting! That was my dream.

I graduated HS and become a computer techie in 1978. I'm not unhappy with that, but always miss not becoming a met. That was my calling.

You are lucky to have so much information and resources at your hands and you already know you could be the next "Jim Cantori" being in the middle of every best storm. (Yea, Jim may not even hold that title anymore...)

Good luck, become the best!!

[Rtd208]

Fred should have no problem reaching at least minimum hurricane status before making landfall around the Florida panhandle early next week with those warm water temps out ahead of it IMO. We'll see.

[Prospero]

 

25 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Fred should have no problem reaching at least minimum hurricane status before making landfall around the Florida panhandle early next week with those warm water temps out ahead of it IMO. We'll see.

Even if it is not a full-blown Tropical Storm and is a ways off-shore, its influence will add a big steroid dose to what is already been happening on the west coast of the Florida peninsula. Our "typical" August thunderstorms have blown the last couple years away already. At least what we are seeing where I live; crazy lightning and thunder, wind gusts near hurricane strength, power outages which have been far and few between since Duke Energy rebuild our power grid after Irma, and the raw "feel" of something different. Exciting actually.

A weak Fred depression or passing wave might out-perform even a respected Cat 1 that passes by in the Gulf this weekend. I'm not putting up plywood on my windows, but will be securing our projectile rich backyard tomorrow watching the radar to hopefully not be scrambling in the rain to batten down the hatches.

[Prospero]

Based on where the NOAA says the LLC is located over Cuba, I'd say it looks better than when over the water. Less shear over land? The heat and energy over Cuba (like Florida right now) pumping it up? I don't know. But if this stays tough and moves back over warm waters it has potential. Right?

[turtlehurricane]

8 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Based on where the NOAA says the LLC is located over Cuba, I'd say it looks better than when over the water. Less shear over land? The heat and energy over Cuba (like Florida right now) pumping it up? I don't know. But if this stays tough and moves back over warm waters it has potential. Right?

Indeed, the satellite presentation is more impressive than ever. Also, banding north of the center getting increasingly vigorous, and it seems we are on track for crazy weather in SE FL starting late tonight. Especially as DMAX kicks into gear. 

Just went to Publix and stocked up, I have enough food, water, bread, Marijuana, and Kratom to survive this storm no matter what happens. 

[cptcatz]

11 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Indeed, the satellite presentation is more impressive than ever. Also, banding north of the center getting increasingly vigorous, and it seems we are on track for crazy weather in SE FL starting late tonight. Especially as DMAX kicks into gear. 

Just went to Publix and stocked up, I have enough food, water, bread, Marijuana, and Kratom to survive this storm no matter what happens. 

It looks like all the bad weather is south of the center now. Unless the storm starts heading north I don't see south Florida getting too much. 

[dseagull]

You may want to lay off the psychoactive stuff there guy. 

[Rtd208]

10 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Indeed, the satellite presentation is more impressive than ever. Also, banding north of the center getting increasingly vigorous, and it seems we are on track for crazy weather in SE FL starting late tonight. Especially as DMAX kicks into gear. 

Just went to Publix and stocked up, I have enough food, water, bread, Marijuana, and Kratom to survive this storm no matter what happens. 

@turtlehurricane driving to Publix. 

[Prospero]

1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

...it seems we are on track for crazy weather in SE FL starting late tonight.

One of my amateur met tools is how our backyard wildlife behavior changes when something is happening. Obviously not a scientific gauge, but for thousands of years humans have watched the critters and follow their lead. Even with earthquakes horses and cattle get restless when we humans are oblivious of what is about to happen.

I filled my bird feeders two days ago, ten pounds of seeds. Baby bird season is mostly over, so that lasts a week or so normally. This time of year sometimes with the rain I end up dumping 20% or so as it gets wet and spoils. As of this morning the feeders were 85 to 90% full, as normal.

Right now dozens of sparrows, all of our 8 or so bluejays, doves galore, our yard cardinals, and even a flock of local Nandy parrots have wiped out the remaining food in a few hours. Plus cleaning up all the spilled seeds on the ground like they are starving.

Hmmm, what do they know? What do they "feel"?

If I were the Shaman for a small tribe of family and friends, I'd be telling everyone to stock up on fresh water and food, and secure the tepees or structures.

 

[turtlehurricane]

7 minutes ago, Prospero said:

One of my amateur met tools is how our backyard wildlife behavior changes when something is happening. Obviously not a scientific gauge, but for thousands of years humans have watched the critters and follow their lead. Even with earthquakes horses and cattle get restless when we humans are oblivious of what is about to happen.

I filled my bird feeders two days ago, ten pounds of seeds. Baby bird season is mostly over, so that lasts a week or so normally. This time of year sometimes with the rain I end up dumping 20% or so as it gets wet and spoils. As of this morning the feeders were 85 to 90% full, as normal.

Right now dozens of sparrows, all of our 8 or so bluejays, doves galore, our yard cardinals, and even a flock of local Nandy parrots have wiped out the remaining food in a few hours. Plus cleaning up all the spilled seeds on the ground like they are starving.

Hmmm, what do they know? What do they "feel"?

If I were the Shaman for a small tribe of family and friends, I'd be telling everyone to stock up on fresh water and food, and secure the tepees or structures.

 

My wife feeds the birds too, we got flocks of ducks, geese and ibises. They are eating more than ever. 

Satellite shows the rainbands quickly crossing from the Bahamas to the SE FL coast. We just had our first big thunder roll as I typed this. Radar shows a band has just popped up in northern Broward. DMAX starting with a bang! 

 https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-01-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[turtlehurricane]

Panorama of one of Fred’s outer bands

Note, on right side of the pic is a big branch or tree that fell down last night. 

[TPAwx]

it’s actually pretty funny that the admins allow a red tagger parody account.

[Prospero]

1 minute ago, TPAwx said:

it’s actually pretty funny that the admins allow a red tagger parody account.

This IS banter until it gets serious.

Party!!

Friday night, not interested in anything else, "Fred is Dead", but Fred is NOT dead yet!

Weenies, wish-casters, kooks, nutcases, jump in while you can. It's likely soon the real mets will finish dinner and jump in. Unless they all gave up on Fred. LOL

If it does get serious, some moderator create a Banter Thread for we who are obsessing on a weekend of "something" in our yards, whatever it may be.

 

[turtlehurricane]

The band is evolving. Really cool to look at. @Prosperonote the flock of ibises that just descended. Your hungry bird theory, plus the fact that the Ibis is the mascot of the Miami Hurricanes, is a double indicator that wicked awesome weather is on the way

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, turtlehurricane said:

The band is evolving. Really cool to look at. @Prosperonote the flock of ibises that just descended. Your hungry bird theory, plus the fact that the Ibis is the mascot of the Miami Hurricanes, is a double indicator that wicked awesome weather is on the way

Wow! That is super cool with how its evolving if you want to/can I would recommend trying to get a timelapse going. 

[Prospero]

15 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wow! That is super cool with how its evolving if you want to/can I would recommend trying to get a timelapse going. 

I'd also recommend a live streaming IP cam on battery backup that we can watch live. I set them up as a side gig and can walk you through the process.

Here is one I do for a client that during storms has tens of thousands of visitors every passing storm:

https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html

My front yard cam which is mostly for security (local police visit me regularly asking for clips for whatever reason):

http://007computer.com/camera-1.html

Few hundred bucks to set up an HD IP cam for the web, and streaming is less than you'd think with as many visitors you would imagine.

My weather station cam:

http://007computer.com/camera-4.html

I have a few in my backyard recording weather and critters, etc. 24/7/365, that are not public, well because we don't always have clothes on. Fortunate to have a very private backyard jungle.

 

 

 

 

[MattPetrulli]

32 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

it’s actually pretty funny that the admins allow a red tagger parody account.

Still waiting for that Miami Hurricane hit 

[turtlehurricane]

Well Shabbos is starting. Turning on the weather radio for the duration of the Shabbos, and gonna hunker down! Kind've fun going through a storm without internet. When the squalls hit it will be a surprise every time. I'll report back tomorrow night!

[Prospero]

2 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Well Shabbos is starting. Turning on the weather radio for the duration of the Shabbos, and gonna hunker down! Kind've fun going through a storm without internet. When the squalls hit it will be a surprise every time. I'll report back tomorrow night!

Take notes.