Tropical Storm Fred

[Prospero]

3 minutes ago, FLweather said:

I'll be out your way tomorrow working off of McMullen Booth RD and Gulf to Bay.

 

But coming across SR 60 across the bay... I would be really sketched out if a cat 2 or higher hit that area.. presuming the NE quadrant.

The Hwy 60 Causeway is always a local news video shot during a storm; waves crashing over the road, etc.

I was on Clearwater Beach when the strongest Hurricane Hermine outer band hit from many miles out to sea. My wife here in Gulfport called and told me a tree fell on our house and I was trying to get home. That was likely my most intense "Hurricane drive" ever for me. Getting out of Clearwater Beach in flooded streets and the drive across Hwy 60 with the surf splashing onto the road to the mainland was scary, and even the drive down Alt 19 inland was a wind and rain adventure I'll never forget with many lights out and debris on the road. But by the time I made it home the band passed and the rest of the night was not quite as intense, but still kept my eyes open.

BTW, there is a Mellow Mushroom pizza on 60 a few blocks from where you will be working. Love that place.

[Prospero]

1 minute ago, dseagull said:

Wow, I know I haven't been to this site since 2015/2016, but what happened?   I'm sure METS still post here once an event of interest pops up right?  Is this just the banter thread?  Sorry for derailing, but I had to say something.  Sheesh 

Sorry, but for whatever reason this thread is slow for mets right now. Waiting for Fred to do something I guess...

Normally it is not like this when a storm is coming. Be patient.

[WeatherAU]

Take a look right at this moment how this new convection has a perfect circular motion.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir
not moving much at all

[Prospero]

Helluva spinning convection east of the LLC. So it appears there is energy, just not aligned right now. Tonight will be interesting.

 

[FLweather]

What a flare up of convection last couple of hours. 

No dry air to really be found on WV of any significance.

H2 trough visible over GA,FL.

With the diurnal convection developing atm and possible further favorable upper level divergence developing... Fred could get his act together tonight.

Outflow looks decent to the North, East and South

 

 

[turtlehurricane]

Not even the bullish HWRF runs from previous days showed deep convection going up this quick over the center.

Also, deep convection will drag circulation northwards and eastwards due to shear vector.

I have a very strong feeling we could have a hurricane in Miami. All the ingredients for a big surprise are in place. 

[WeatherAU]

Rapidly lifted air-mass triggered cloud tops around -90C ... just now... enough to initiate the giant engine start...
 

[Tatamy]

20 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Not even the bullish HWRF runs from previous days showed deep convection going up this quick over the center.

Also, deep convection will drag circulation northwards and eastwards due to shear vector.

I have a very strong feeling we could have a hurricane in Miami. All the ingredients for a big surprise are in place. 

Did you read the 5pm discussion from the NHC?  The part about 20 kts of shear and a lack of organization?  The system is not projected to re-attain Tropical Storm status until Friday night when it passes 100 miles south of Miami.  This is not going to hit Miami as a hurricane.  There may well be other storms that threaten Miami with hurricane force winds this season but not this one.

[Prospero]

6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Did you read the 5pm discussion from the NHC?  The part about 20 kts of shear and a lack of organization?  The system is not projected to re-attain Tropical Storm status until Friday night when it passes 100 miles south of Miami.  This is not going to hit Miami as a hurricane.  There may well be other storms that threaten Miami with hurricane force winds this season but not this one.

If nothing else, the "cones" over the past couple years have been very good. Below does say a lot:

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

Check where Hurricane Josh is setting up shop. He has a nose for where storms are coming onshore.

 

Honestly, I'd be surprised if he attempted a chase here. It just looks too disorganized and marginal on guidance to get someone like him going. I know I'm not considering this one. 

40 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Sorry, but for whatever reason this thread is slow for mets right now. Waiting for Fred to do something I guess...

Normally it is not like this when a storm is coming. Be patient.

This. It's obviously something to track but 1) there's nothing too exciting happening right now IMO and 2) there are a lot of tropical snobs on the board. Some only show up if there's a major (wind) event in the cards. 

That said, let's talk tropical  

I've been lukewarm on Fred's future, and it seems that the guidance has pulled back as well. Keep in mind that runs like the HWRF and that one GFS run were outliers, and even GEFS and EPS guidance were more bearish on the possibilities of a strong system coming into Florida. 

To be clear, Fred is not dead. It has developed a pretty impressive burst of convection. However, you can see clearly from the visible loop below that shear is present, as the cloud tops are being blown away from the center. 

Despite the very warm SSTs and OHC, it's going to take time for a weakened Fred to be in a low enough shear environment to allow for any type of significant intensification. That's why the current NHC forecast doesn't get this to hurricane or even high end TS status. 

One caveat could be if Fred is able to avoid land interaction (GFS and Euro take it into the FL Peninsula before getting to the Gulf) perhaps it can intensify a bit more because it'll have more time, but I think the ceiling is minimal hurricane if everything became aligned. 

I think a mid-strength TS much like the NHC is forecasting is the eventual outcome, and it should be mentioned again that this looks to be a significant rainmaker for someone. 

[WeatherAU]

Window of opportunity for Fred as the convection visually backlogged itself and feels like extending timing over 30-31C... Mother Of God knows what would happen next.
Shear is annoying! This stops me for a hype now...

[MattPetrulli]

45 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Not even the bullish HWRF runs from previous days showed deep convection going up this quick over the center.

Also, deep convection will drag circulation northwards and eastwards due to shear vector.

I have a very strong feeling we could have a hurricane in Miami. All the ingredients for a big surprise are in place. 

Please stop man there isn't gonna be a hurricane hitting Miami. If there is I will eat my words but there's currently absolutely no support for such a scenario.

[NavarreDon]

This. It's obviously something to track but 1) there's nothing too exciting happening right now IMO and 2) there are a lot of tropical snobs on the board. Some only show up if there's a major (wind) event in the cards. 
That said, let's talk tropical  
I've been lukewarm on Fred's future, and it seems that the guidance has pulled back as well. Keep in mind that runs like the HWRF and that one GFS run were outliers, and even GEFS and EPS guidance were more bearish on the possibilities of a strong system coming into Florida. 

To be clear, Fred is not dead. It has developed a pretty impressive burst of convection. However, you can see clearly from the visible loop below that shear is present, as the cloud tops are being blown away from the center. 


Despite the very warm SSTs and OHC, it's going to take time for a weakened Fred to be in a low enough shear environment to allow for any type of significant intensification. That's why the current NHC forecast doesn't get this to hurricane or even high end TS status. 
One caveat could be if Fred is able to avoid land interaction (GFS and Euro take it into the FL Peninsula before getting to the Gulf) perhaps it can intensify a bit more because it'll have more time, but I think the ceiling is minimal hurricane if everything became aligned. 
I think a mid-strength TS much like the NHC is forecasting is the eventual outcome, and it should be mentioned again that this looks to be a significant rainmaker for someone. 

Great post! Some normalcy in the thread has returned!!!


.

[WeatherAU]

Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic //// Fred aftermath
REUTERS

[WxWatcher007]

Recon is in the system right now, so we should get some data on this convective burst and organization of the storm. So far, I don’t see any real pressure drops.

[Prospero]

2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Great post! Some normalcy in the thread has returned!!!


.

Storm Banter threads are a good place for many of us who come here for entertainment, but from what I've seen they only come up when something gets serious.

We all come for what the mets say, of course. With this site having almost 17,000 members, like it or not, these threads are fun for we who are weather nerds looking for a place to hang out. I know I post too much, but try to add graphics or occasional attempts at serious opinions, etc. But personally enjoy other people's thoughts who are on the same level as myself.

Maybe Banter should come up before a storm is a dangerous threat so we who just have fun sharing "banter" are free to entertain ourselves. It is a balance hard for people like me who sometimes (always) get excited about any little weather thing.

But then we must ask, what is "normal" anyway.

I'm a web developer, wonder if the world needs a Weather Forum for non-mets...

 

 

 

[WeatherAU]

Convection calmed nothing yet to suggest imminent RI.
 

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I'm a web developer, wonder if the world needs a Weather Forum for non-mets...

I'm in my teens so i'm not great with forecasts or any of that and my posts lean somewhat heavily on banter or misinformed takes but I still try to make a good post once in awhile and a big draw to being here is having people who know what they are doing so you get a better picture but also learn from them. Banter is still fun though.    

[SandySurvivor]

1 hour ago, turtlehurricane said:

Not even the bullish HWRF runs from previous days showed deep convection going up this quick over the center.

Also, deep convection will drag circulation northwards and eastwards due to shear vector.

I have a very strong feeling we could have a hurricane in Miami. All the ingredients for a big surprise are in place. 

I’m rethinking my decision of Islamorada based off your feelings on this. Going to lose my deposit on the hotel here, however it’s best to be safe.  
 

May leave prior to the 11pm advisory. Don’t want to get stuck in the roads when everyone realizes what’s coming.  Do you think NHC goes right to a Hurricane watch for Broward and south at 11pm? 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I'm in my teens so i'm not great with forecasts or any of that and my posts lean somewhat heavily on banter or misinformed takes but I still try to make a good post once in awhile and a big draw to being here is having people who know what they are doing so you get a better picture but also learn from them. Banter is still fun though.    

We were all there once. I learned so much getting on the early wx boards at that age and following some of the pros and knowledgeable hobbyists.

The great thing about this place is if you’re in the right threads, there’s something to be learned or a perspective to be gained.

[turtlehurricane]

6 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

I’m rethinking my decision of Islamorada based off your feelings on this. Going to lose my deposit on the hotel here, however it’s best to be safe.  
 

May leave prior to the 11pm advisory. Don’t want to get stuck in the roads when everyone realizes what’s coming.  Do you think NHC goes right to a Hurricane watch for Broward and south at 11pm? 

You can just stay in Islamorada for now, if it ends up going north of track you'll have time to react. 

Remember, even in a hurricane warning, people are allowed to drive out of the keys. It won't be closed. 

I don't think any hurricane advisories are coming until tomorrow once it's already becoming a hurricane, if that happens. At 11 pm or 5 am they will probably put tropical storm advisories for SE FL

[NavarreDon]

Storm Banter threads are a good place for many of us who come here for entertainment, but from what I've seen they only come up when something gets serious.
We all come for what the mets say, of course. With this site having almost 17,000 members, like it or not, these threads are fun for we who are weather nerds looking for a place to hang out. I know I post too much, but try to add graphics or occasional attempts at serious opinions, etc. But personally enjoy other people's thoughts who are on the same level as myself.
Maybe Banter should come up before a storm is a dangerous threat so we who just have fun sharing "banter" are free to entertain ourselves. It is a balance hard for people like me who sometimes (always) get excited about any little weather thing.
But then we must ask, what is "normal" anyway.
I'm a web developer, wonder if the world needs a Weather Forum for non-mets...
 
 
 

My post wasn’t directed at you, I enjoy your enthusiasm. Some of the tangents the that posts take the direction of the thread in, are a bit over the top.


.

[turtlehurricane]

Convection already dragging the center north and East. If convection can really lock in over center during DMAX it will drag it big time. Shear vector is definitely not something to under-estimate.

[cptcatz]

14 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

I’m rethinking my decision of Islamorada based off your feelings on this. Going to lose my deposit on the hotel here, however it’s best to be safe.  
 

May leave prior to the 11pm advisory. Don’t want to get stuck in the roads when everyone realizes what’s coming.  Do you think NHC goes right to a Hurricane watch for Broward and south at 11pm? 

Wait what?  At 5pm the NHC forecasted Fred to be at 40 mph near South Florida with the bulk of the storm being on the west side of the state.  Why would a hurricane watch be coming at 11pm for anywhere, let alone Broward County?  

[WxWatcher007]

It does look like it’s trying to align under the convection, but it’s still got work to do to achieve that. No significant pressure drop on the latest pass by recon.

[FLweather]

With the h2 trough over GA and FL. Plus the HP currently over top of Fred.. Alot of divergence available atm coupled with Diurnal max.

Clearly seen on WV as clouds back to the NW with the developing jet.. Fred trying extra hard tonight.

[WeatherAU]

Expanding signature definitely trying to gain massive cloud composition
 

[WeatherAU]

No matter what happens to Fred this is a dangerous storm considering photos from the Dominican Republic.

[turtlehurricane]

12 minutes ago, FLweather said:

With the h2 trough over GA and FL. Plus the HP currently over top of Fred.. Alot of divergence available atm coupled with Diurnal max.

Clearly seen on WV as clouds back to the NW with the developing jet.. Fred trying extra hard tonight.

That upper-low/trough over Florida is interacting with Fred's circulation and creating a huge area of severe squalls. They're starting to come in all across the coast now. 

We just got clipped by the edge of one of the squalls and for a few minutes it was absolutely torrential rain and winds of 30-40 mph. Can't imagine what it was like in the center of the actual squall, but I'll find out soon, lots of squalls coming. 

This definitely increases flooding potential. Could be quite a flooding event starting now actually, I think conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for these squalls as Fred and the trough collide. Also sporadic power outages seem likely, these squalls are packing winds of up to 40-60 mph. 

P.S. lightning and thunder filling the sky, it's pretty awesome. 

[WxWatcher007]

Here’s the VDM from recon. Still disorganized, but very close to retaining TS status based on SFMR readings. Shear is still making organization difficult, but the convective burst is nice. 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 1:14Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304 
Storm Name: Fred
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 0:51:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.36N 75.30W
B. Center Fix Location: 99 statute miles (159 km) to the NNE (20°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 798m (2,618ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1013mb (29.92 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 33kts (38.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the N (5°) of center fix at 0:40:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 114° at 42kts (From the ESE at 48.3mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix at 0:38:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15kts (17.3mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix at 1:03:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 54° at 13kts (From the NE at 15.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the W (270°) of center fix at 1:06:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) which was observed 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the N (10°) from the flight level center at 0:38:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb