Akeem the African Dream Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 25 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Looks like the HWRF SE FL Major Hurricane scenario is actualizing itself. except it’s not looks awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 29 minutes ago, Muhammad2922 said: Hwrf will be right in this case, and also underdone. Significantly underdone for upper gulf coast I highly doubt that. We'll have to see if it survives the islands first. Not to mention a major hurricane in the first half of August is very rare. There hasn't been one since Dean in 2007. Conditions may be favorable, but I don't think it's going to be a major. Still needs to be watched though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 57 minutes ago, Muhammad2922 said: Growing of a significant hurricane risk for upper gulf coast anywhere from Al / Fl panhandle . Most global models show significant pressure falls. Australian model Weather.us - Google Chrome (gyazo.com) Skorean model ( 10km resolution very good) Cmc was posted before. Building anticyclone / high rh humidity and extremely warm gulf favor a sig hurricane to form. 2 ull will enhance outflow channels in models as welll. My rule of thumb when the Korean and the Aussie global agree is to start panic buying. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Can we please relax on the major hurricane talk until it passes DR??? Kind of jumping the gun a lot here. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Power is out here due to lightning, best lightning storm all season. So we have a taste of what can happen during tropical systems. Half hour and already stuffy and warm inside! Good thing for tablets and smart phones can still follow discussions. Lol Duke Energy says back on by 12:30 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Muhammad2922 said: Hwrf will be right in this case, and also underdone. Significantly underdone for upper gulf coast. Please stop with the hype. There is no way to know which model will be correct. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Gun to head. What’s the direction/intensity/impact? Feels like good time of forecasting where folks make the call with limited data… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 NHC now showing the official center is well to the north of the previous track, and winds have been upped to 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreekWeatherGod95 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: NHC now showing the official center is well to the north of the previous track, and winds have been upped to 40 mph Welp, Hispaniola won’t rip this storm too much now. Norther side of the island isn’t too mountainous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Looking at the IR and I honestly think this storm is going to get shredded. Does not really matter where the circulation is when the convection will die unless I truly don’t know what is going on. It just feels like this thing is going to get shredded to me unless we get some good convection to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Is it due to the poor geometry that this isn't named? Because I thought >39mph is a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, Stormfly said: Is it due to the poor geometry that this isn't named? Because I thought >39mph is a TS. Sort of. No evidence yet of a closed circulation with winds from the West to the South of the center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, Stormfly said: Is it due to the poor geometry that this isn't named? Because I thought >39mph is a TS. It’s having a hard time developing a closed circulation. This is effectively a very sharp wave at the moment. As soon as it closes off it’ll be a named system. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Recon put in a center fix, Tropical Storm Fred at 11 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 1:25ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302 Potential Tropical Cyclone: Six (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 0:40:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.34N 66.30WB. Center Fix Location: 75 statute miles (121 km) to the SSW (192°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,504m (4,934ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 50° at 6kts (From the NE at 7mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 35kts (40.3mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the N (6°) of center fix at 0:31:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 115° at 40kts (From the ESE at 46.0mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix at 0:20:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 25kts (28.8mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the W (274°) of center fix at 0:43:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 43° at 31kts (From the NE at 35.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77 nautical miles (89 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix at 1:01:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,532m (5,026ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 6.5 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the NE (38°) from the flight level center at 0:19:00ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the N (352°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 FYI 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Fred @ 11 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 11 pm track nudged solidly north, brings it through the Middle Keys instead of near the Lower Keys. Of course that's all minutiae, main thing is to see how Fred responds to Hispaniola. It's still up in the air and 50/50 at this point. We'll see if it starts going north through Mona Passage once it clears Puerto Rico, or if it gets stuck south of Hispaniola. We'll have our answer by the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Wow -80C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Really good convection question is does it hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Poor Fred, about to take the worst path possible for land/mountain interaction 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Starting to figure some preparations into my schedule. Maybe even a little shopping today. Reminds me a bit of Elsa, at least in relation to Tampa Bay (July 4 at 5PM): Elsa was a "Hurricane" when it passed very near us on July 6 yet it was not much of a storm here. Seriously, a substantial Tropical Storm in the same place would be much more of a concern, and Fred might be setting up for that if it survives the mountains. (Just scanned the Elsa forum and it is funny how similar all these storms forums become! LOL) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Fred looks like its coming apart before it hits the mountains. I think JB was a bit premature talking about Katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 06z HWRF Panama City, FL landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Fred looks like its coming apart before it hits the mountains. I think JB was a bit premature talking about Katrina. Don't jinx us! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Looking at the IR satellite it looks like the main convection is heading south? What is this thing doing, is it going to try to go beneath the Dominican Republic and Haiti because if so it will either die or get the 1/100 shot go underneath and realize that Cuba exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Poor Fred, about to take the worst path possible for land/mountain interaction Next step with this storm is to see if it re-centers itself along the north coast of Hispaniola while crossing the mountains. Time to look for evidence of that would be this evening. If this occurs it will have implications on the track going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 No offense Fred, but you certainly not looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Misaligned centers and crossing Hispaniola is a bad setup for any TC. A number of possibilities here all with regards to a weak cyclone. Everything from surface vort reformation to system dissipation. Laura did remarkably well traversing the mountainous terrain. Isaias fared okay with a center reformation. Many systems do not fare well however. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 It looks like it's committing suicide. Only 5-10% chance it emerges with a closed circulation. Will probably skirt along the whole southern coast of Hispaniola and hit Cuba too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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