Tropical Storm Fred

[WxWatcher007]

After some steady organization over the last 24 hours, Invest 94L has made a marked shift toward TC genesis in the last 8 hours. 

Now, the NHC has 2-day and 5-day odds of development at 70%. 

 

The long term intensity forecast for 94L is uncertain due to potential land interaction but overall it looks like a system that is a threat to the Greater Antilles before making some kind of US approach as a ridge steers it WNW and trough induced weakness in the ridge in the later forecast period creates an opportunity for a curve of some kind. 

Whether that happens in the Gulf, or just off the SE Coast remains to be seen. Both the GEFS and EPS, which have struggled to keep a consistent signal until recently, have some type of evolution that looks similar to what I just described. I think it's also worth noting that while the GEFS has a less robust outlook for 94L, the operational model continues to be more "aggressive" with a minimal TS off the SE coast as early as this weekend.  

 

 

Let's track. 

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning 
in association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles 
east of Barbados. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  The disturbance is forecast to 
reach portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola 
around the middle of this week.  Tropical storm watches or warnings 
could be required today with shorter-than-normal lead times for 
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto 
Rico.  In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the 
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  Interests in 
those areas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Windspeed]

ASCAT shows the axis is definitely sharpening. Uncertainties for any west wind yet SSE of the wave break boundary. Haven't checked recon schedule, but it won't be too long before we have real-time obs from Barbados to help assist analysis as 94L passes to the North.

[WxWatcher007]

The overlays on that site are awesome. 

[WxWatcher007]

Looking at the 12z guidance and that’s a heck of a ridge over the top of 94L. Certainly within the realm of possibility that whatever this ends up being (likely weak) lands in the eastern Gulf. 

[ldub23]

Yea, very weak. MJO phase 2 needs to get  its act  together.

 

[Windspeed]

The overlays on that site are awesome. 

That is Dr. Onderlinde's website and he's doing all of this via Patreon. He also has target goals for new data sets and features, including historical analogue overlays for live systems, which would be an absolute goldmine for professionals and enthusiasts. It's pretty mind boggling what he has managed to do on his own. If you or anyone else likes, throw him a few bucks.

[Eskimo Joe]

Perhaps a met could answer this question, but why hasn't this been designated as a Potential Tropical Cyclone yet? I've seen worse things than this get that designation.

[Windspeed]

Perhaps a met could answer this question, but why hasn't this been designated as a Potential Tropical Cyclone yet? I've seen worse things than this get that designation.

ASCAT data, though showing a sharp cutoff and increasing organization, doesn't show much in the way TS-force wind barbs over a significant area. There isn't much of a threat of storm force impacts at moment of genesis unless the winds increase here. They are likely just being patient as they have more liberty/luxury to do so versus say a situation like Elsa earlier this season that immediately had TS force upon genesis. That being said, we may still yet see PTC advisories go up by 5 AST.

[WxWatcher007]

Provided we don’t see a backslide in organization, I think we do see PTC or TD advisories at 5pm.

TD would be harder to achieve as it’s not closed off yet and that could take a while longer.

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Yea, very weak. MJO phase 2 needs to get  its act  together.

 

Cmc is slightly stronger in the gulf

[WxWatcher007]

The thing about that GFS run (and it could be right) is that it basically achieves a landfall trifecta, with hits on Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba before getting into the Gulf. Of course, that requires a pretty precise track, so the ensembles are still important here in understanding the envelope of possibilities right now. So far, everything looks weak and fairly disorganized. 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure 
located about 100 miles east-northeast of Barbados continue to show 
signs of organization. However, recent satellite wind data indicates 
that the system currently lacks a well-defined center.  
Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for 
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 
to 15 mph.  The disturbance is forecast to move through portions of 
the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and 
Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and Hispaniola on Wednesday. Tropical storm 
watches or warnings could be required this afternoon with 
shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Lesser Antilles, 
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  In addition, heavy rains and 
flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and 
Puerto Rico.  Interests in those areas should monitor the progress 
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Perhaps a met could answer this question, but why hasn't this been designated as a Potential Tropical Cyclone yet? I've seen worse things than this get that designation.

ASCAT data, though showing a sharp cutoff and increasing organization, doesn't show much in the way TS-force wind barbs over a significant area. There isn't much of a threat of storm force impacts at moment of genesis unless the winds increase here. They are likely just being patient as they have more liberty/luxury to do so versus say a situation like Elsa earlier this season that immediately had TS force upon genesis. That being said, we may still yet see PTC advisories go up by 5 AST.

Good copy, thanks.

[Floydbuster]

Look at that beautiful anti-cyclone right over the top of it. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

The 12z Euro op keeps 94L away from the land interaction that the GFS has, but keeps it weak on its way to south Florida, shear looks to be the main culprit. It does try to organize a bit after crossing Florida, but not a lot of space to do much. Looks like a good rainmaker verbatim. 

[Prospero]

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The 12z Euro op keeps 94L away from the land interaction that the GFS has, but keeps it weak on its way to south Florida, shear looks to be the main culprit. It does try to organize a bit after crossing Florida, but not a lot of space to do much. Looks like a good rainmaker verbatim. 

Been waking up and watching. We need the rain in Gulfport, FL. This time of year we take all we can get, because it starts to really dry up up soon.

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

al Message from NHC

Issued 9 Aug 2021 20:10 UTC

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located just east of the Lesser Antillies, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).

Advisories being issued on PTC6 at 5pm

[WxWatcher007]

25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

al Message from NHC

Issued 9 Aug 2021 20:10 UTC

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located just east of the Lesser Antillies, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).

Advisories being issued on PTC6 at 5pm

Good because I was starting to sweat my bold prediction from a few hours ago  

In all seriousness though the gradual organization has continued IMO this afternoon, even though it's not entirely closed off yet and still needs to fire more consistent convection. 

[Windspeed]

Good because I was starting to sweat my bold prediction from a few hours ago  
In all seriousness though the gradual organization has continued IMO this afternoon, even though it's not entirely closed off yet and still needs to fire more consistent convection. 

These new towers going up within southerly flow on the backside of PTC 6 are no joke. This is what we have been waiting to unfold. Previous convection has been very marginal. The current towers are clearly arcing around the northern periphery of the wave axis. This should allow pressures to fall and close the surface low circulation off in relatively short order. PTC was a good call as we may have a classified cyclone by 11 AST.

[WxWatcher007]

Expected to become a tropical storm tonight. 

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021

...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 59.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has been issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Guadeloupe and Martinique.

The government of Barbados has been issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Dominica.

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque eastward along
the southern coast of the island and the entire northern coast to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands 
and Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward
and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti
border.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.2 North, longitude 59.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is 
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast 
track, the system is expected to move through a portion of the 
southern Leeward Islands tonight, pass near or over the U.S. 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and 
near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the 
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, 
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles tonight, and are also possible within the
watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning
Tuesday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin

[WxWatcher007]

First cone

[WxWatcher007]

Finally, here's the discussion. As @Windspeed was mentioning, those towers going up in PTC 6 right now could have an impact on the track, as a center positioned a little further north could allow for the vortex to miss some land masses. It does look like the environment in the western Atlantic could keep things in check if that were to happen, but we'll need to see what the trends are with projected shear in the next few days. 

Of course, this could also hit everything given the ridge to the north steering it WNW. 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located 
northeast of Barbados has continued to consolidate this afternoon, 
with several bands noted in both satellite and radar data from 
Barbados and Martinique.  ASCAT data from this morning revealed a 
sharp trough axis, but the system lacked a well-defined circulation. 
However, recent visible satellite imagery hints that a better 
defined center may be forming just southwest of the primary 
convective mass.  These trends suggest the system is likely to 
become a tropical depression or storm tonight or Tuesday when it 
moves near the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean.  
Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the system in order to 
issue Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Lesser Antilles, 
the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican 
Republic. 

Since the system is still in its formative stage the initial motion 
estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/13 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge 
anchored over the western Atlantic should steer the system 
west-northwestward through the forecast period.  Although there is 
high confidence in the overall steering pattern over the next 
several days, there is lower than normal confidence in the details 
of the track forecast, especially in the short-range due to the lack 
of a well-defined center.  Exactly where the center forms will have 
some downstream implications on the exact forecast track, especially 
across the eastern Caribbean.  Regardless of the exact track, 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across 
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, 
and the Dominican Republic over the next day or two, hence the need 
for Tropical Storm Watches for portions of those areas. 

The disturbance is embedded within an area of low vertical wind 
shear and SSTs of around 28C. These conditions favor additional 
development, but the occasional entrainment of dry mid-level air 
located just west of the system is likely to prevent more rapid 
organization. By Wednesday, the system is likely to be near 
Hispaniola, where subtle differences in the forecast track could 
have large implications on the intensity of the storm later this 
week. A track directly over Hispaniola would likely significantly 
disrupt the circulation, while a track more poleward of the island 
could allow the system to stay more intact.  An additional caveat 
beyond 48 hours is that vertical wind shear out of the southwest may 
also increase, which could limit the intensity after the system 
moves past Hispaniola, although uncertainty exists in how much the 
shear will increase given differences between the more favorable 
ECMWF and less favorable GFS model solutions. The NHC intensity 
forecast brings the system up to a 45 kt tropical storm before 
potential land interaction with Hispaniola and afterwards is 
conservative given the possibility of additional land interaction 
and less favorable environmental conditions towards the end of the 
forecast period. 

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves 
through the Lesser Antilles tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are 
possible in portions of the southern Leeward Islands tonight and 
Tuesday and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday 
afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday. 

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream 
flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and 
Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across 
the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of 
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba 
later this week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual 
since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these 
areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the 
forecast. 

4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should 
monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon 
to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week 
or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 14.2N  59.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  10/0600Z 15.4N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  10/1800Z 16.8N  64.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 17.9N  67.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 19.2N  70.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/0600Z 20.3N  72.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  12/1800Z 21.1N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 22.8N  78.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 24.5N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

First cone

This system could get interesting. Latest HWRF is significantly stronger than past runs, largely due to the system missing more land masses, and brings the system a bit further north into the Bahamas. Both it and GFS have some shear issues to deal with (while the system is also interacting with Hispaniola), but if it can maintain, the environment looks much more favorable for strengthening in the vicinity of the Bahamas/se Florida coast. HWRF now brings the system almost to hurricane strength before landfall, significantly stronger than previous runs. A lot of moving pieces with this track, land interaction, and shear, but if it survives to the East coast of Florida it may have a bit higher of a ceiling. As noted above, it’s satellite appearance looks ahead of schedule for models at this juncture. ASCAT was a very sharp trough axis and it looks to be closing off as we speak, watch the last few frames of the visible satellite. Almost looks like a westward component. From my experience watching these storms, establishing a strong vortex before land interaction goes a long way for a systems survival chances. Short term intensity before it reaches Hispaniola may have greater implications down the road as to its ability to survive/possibly strengthen. Anyway, this one has my attention and is in a very favorable position for a Florida impact 

[Windspeed]

Finally, here's the discussion. As [mention=845]Windspeed[/mention] was mentioning, those towers going up in PTC 6 right now could have an impact on the track, as a center positioned a little further north could allow for the vortex to miss some land masses. It does look like the environment in the western Atlantic could keep things in check if that were to happen, but we'll need to see what the trends are with projected shear in the next few days. 

Of course, this could also hit everything given the ridge to the north steering it WNW. 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   1NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located northeast of Barbados has continued to consolidate this afternoon, with several bands noted in both satellite and radar data from Barbados and Martinique.  ASCAT data from this morning revealed a sharp trough axis, but the system lacked a well-defined circulation. However, recent visible satellite imagery hints that a better defined center may be forming just southwest of the primary convective mass.  These trends suggest the system is likely to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or Tuesday when it moves near the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean.  Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the system in order to issue Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Lesser Antilles, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic. Since the system is still in its formative stage the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/13 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the western Atlantic should steer the system west-northwestward through the forecast period.  Although there is high confidence in the overall steering pattern over the next several days, there is lower than normal confidence in the details of the track forecast, especially in the short-range due to the lack of a well-defined center.  Exactly where the center forms will have some downstream implications on the exact forecast track, especially across the eastern Caribbean.  Regardless of the exact track, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic over the next day or two, hence the need for Tropical Storm Watches for portions of those areas. The disturbance is embedded within an area of low vertical wind shear and SSTs of around 28C. These conditions favor additional development, but the occasional entrainment of dry mid-level air located just west of the system is likely to prevent more rapid organization. By Wednesday, the system is likely to be near Hispaniola, where subtle differences in the forecast track could have large implications on the intensity of the storm later this week. A track directly over Hispaniola would likely significantly disrupt the circulation, while a track more poleward of the island could allow the system to stay more intact.  An additional caveat beyond 48 hours is that vertical wind shear out of the southwest may also increase, which could limit the intensity after the system moves past Hispaniola, although uncertainty exists in how much the shear will increase given differences between the more favorable ECMWF and less favorable GFS model solutions. The NHC intensity forecast brings the system up to a 45 kt tropical storm before potential land interaction with Hispaniola and afterwards is conservative given the possibility of additional land interaction and less favorable environmental conditions towards the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES:1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves through the Lesser Antilles tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the southern Leeward Islands tonight and Tuesday and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico.3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba later this week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT  09/2100Z 14.2N  59.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE12H  10/0600Z 15.4N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE24H  10/1800Z 16.8N  64.5W   40 KT  45 MPH36H  11/0600Z 17.9N  67.3W   45 KT  50 MPH48H  11/1800Z 19.2N  70.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND60H  12/0600Z 20.3N  72.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER72H  12/1800Z 21.1N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH96H  13/1800Z 22.8N  78.8W   40 KT  45 MPH120H  14/1800Z 24.5N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH$$Forecaster Brown/Papin

This may be the one caveat for PTC that do not yet have a fully closed circulation. The initial advisory track is susceptible to greater error as the low could close off a good distance away from the invest plot. But nothing is perfect and we need the lead time watches/warnings that PTC advisories provide. That being said, future TS track could be further north. PR may get a direct hit here. Let's hope intensification is slow before the window of favorable upper level winds closes.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This system could get interesting. Latest HWRF is significantly stronger than past runs, largely due to the system missing more land masses, and brings the system a bit further north into the Bahamas. Both it and GFS have some shear issues to deal with (while the system is also interacting with Hispaniola), but if it can maintain, the environment looks much more favorable for strengthening in the vicinity of the Bahamas/se Florida coast. HWRF now brings the system almost to hurricane strength before landfall, significantly stronger than previous runs. A lot of moving pieces with this track, land interaction, and shear, but if it survives to the East coast of Florida it may have a bit higher of a ceiling. As noted above, it’s satellite appearance looks ahead of schedule for models at this juncture. ASCAT was a very sharp trough axis and it looks to be closing off as we speak, watch the last few frames of the visible satellite. Almost looks like a westward component. From my experience watching these storms, establishing a strong vortex before land interaction goes a long way for a systems survival chances. Short term intensity before it reaches Hispaniola may have greater implications down the road as to its ability to survive/possibly strengthen. Anyway, this one has my attention and is in a very favorable position for a Florida impact 

I love me some HWRF, I just don't like looking at it before something is well-defined and closed off. 

I do think it has a higher ceiling than this time yesterday, but as you said, a lot of moving pieces with this one. These Caribbean crossers always seem to be a challenge. 

Totally agree about having a stronger vortex. I think we'll get one of modest strength before PR, so then it becomes a question (to me at least) of 1) how damaged, if at all, it becomes crossing land and 2) does the shear actually pan out? We've seen cases where shear isn't quite what we thought (in both directions) and it has had a significant impact on the eventual evolution of a tropical system. Finally, what will happen with this ridge? It seems like there's agreement that this ridge holds until the Bahamas, but then there's divergence on the guidance in when a more pronounced turn occurs.

I think the 12z EPS does a good job with individual members highlighting a fairly wide variety of possible track outcomes. 

A lot of interesting pieces to watch.  

[RT1980]

A long ways out and will have to look at the models going forward but what was concerning to me was how long the models had this going up the west coast of Fl.   That would be a ton of rain for them.   I know it’s subject to change but wow.

[Prospero]

50 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

so then it becomes a question (to me at least) of 1) how damaged, if at all, it becomes crossing land

Seems to me the past few years more often than not storms survive even after going over the highest terrain. Might be my memory only remembering ones that do survive, but I do remember watching many survive where everyone thought they'd be destroyed.

And then some appear to get angry and really fire up...

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Seems to me the past few years more often than not storms survive even after going over the highest terrain. Might be my memory only remembering ones that do survive, but I do remember watching many survive where everyone thought they'd be destroyed.

And then some appear to get angry and really fire up...

Last year most storms managed to skirt the islands or took fortuitous tracks to minimize land impact 

[Prospero]

4 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

A long ways out and will have to look at the models going forward but what was concerning to me was how long the models had this going up the west coast of Fl.   That would be a ton of rain for them.   I know it’s subject to change but wow.

Central West coast of Florida could use a good solid rain event and even some moderate TS winds to blow out a few cobwebs and stir up the ocean a bit to help get rid of the red tide.

Time to watch and pay attention for us. What we don't need is a Hurricane on any level...

[Prospero]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Last year most storms managed to skirt the islands or took fortuitous tracks to minimize land impact 

I remember well. Good thing they typically didn't develop perfect eyes and reach what some of us expected on those paths. There were some good conditions at times.