3-4 day heat wave through Aug 13-14, with small pockets 6" rainfall by the 15th

[gravitylover]

It got to about 90 earlier while I was out and about but now a pretty thick cloud deck moved in and it's back to the mid 80s but it's stuffy, muggy and unpleasant. The .04" this morning was about useless for the garden.

[IrishRob17]

Lots of lightning and loud thunder in this cell moving through just south of KMGJ

[gravitylover]

Lots of low rumbling thunder here too for the last hour and change but no rain.

[hudsonvalley21]

Had a cell hit here with a quick 0.66 a couple of hours ago. Rain rate of 6.19 in the Davis. High temp of 90 today with a heat index of 101. Forecast high of 97 tomorrow and heat index of 107. 

[wdrag]

95 EWR and PHL today,  92 LGA, 89 NYC.  

Will try to add some #s tomorrow on qpf. It's adding up.  

[forkyfork]

tomorrow's soundings are impressive instability wise. EML present 

[Rtd208]

@wdrag @forkyfork maybe a slight risk introduced for tomorrow? The models have been horrible with convection recently IMO.

[SRRTA22]

Nams been pretty good lately 

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 95 here.

Picked up 0.21" of rain for the day.

 

[Rtd208]

@wdrag @forkyfork SPC has expanded but holds with a marginal risk of severe storms for our area today. We will have to see what they do in later updates. 

[SRRTA22]

in the words of forkmeister....

"Meh"

The better dynamics look northwest of us. I want storms just as much as the next guy but tomorrow aint it

[wdrag]

Good Thursday morning all,  Will add and post CoCoRAHS #'s for the past few days (late today).  In the meantime,  Max HI in NYC ydy, despite not making 90 (officially) was 100...well above WPC (after heat finally breaking through the Sun-Tue coastal low Delaware River pseudo warm frontal delay).  Now we can go for 105 HI in NYC today, and temps at EWR both today and tomorrow 98ish (or whatever you think).

No doubt this event will place late June as a lesser event.  We're dealing with 3 days HI near 105 in the I95 corridor of NJ. 

Don't have time to look at every number but the potential continues for 90F heat in NJ thru midday Sat.

SVR (scattered) I think is a pretty good bet for the region along and n of I80 between 5P and 11P today. Graphic attached. 

More heavy storms late Fri and then leftover showers and storms Sat (especially NJ LI southward. 

Will begin a Fred moisture thread shortly. 

Also added some WPC max HI guidance for NYC from previous days.  This is why when outlooking potential hazardous events, we need to consider blended statistical guidance as muted but a consideration as part of the briefing package. 

[forkyfork]

hello

[wdrag]

So the bow passed s of Wantage NJ.  Very few power outages n part of the County. Wantage NJ 4 sw (our home) Max G 28 MPH 408P   0.09 rainfall and now at 427P, still 85F at 740' MSL. 

[wdrag]

MAX HI in CP today was 101.  Max T in EWR at least 97. 

[wdrag]

CoCoRAHS yesterday. Max ants 8/8-12-12z, 3.5-4.3" on Co RAHS undoubtedly heavier per wxunderground in a few spots. 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, wdrag said:

MAX HI in CP today was 101.  Max T in EWR at least 97. 

Looks like JFK also hit 90 today, Walt? I was at 91 between noon and 1 PM in southwest Nassau County.  Peak heat will be tomorrow!

 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like JFK also hit 90 today, Walt? I was at 91 between noon and 1 PM in southwest Nassau County.  Peak heat will be tomorrow!

 

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KJFK&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KJFK&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

I guess they just barely made it to 90!  This makes up for all the 89s this summer lol.

89.6 at 16:20

 

edit well thats weird (so is my newly acquired font color lol).....they list max temp since midnight at 2.0m at 89.6 at 4:20 PM but the 6 hr high is only 88.0 and thats at 1:51 PM.....what gives?

[LibertyBell]

why are there two different max temps for JFK?  89.6 at 4:20 PM and 88.0 at 1:51 PM

The 89.6 (90) is more accurate and closer to the 91 we had here in SW Nassau, 4 miles from the airport.

 

[STORMANLI]

Thunderstorm around 540pm dropped 0.07".

Down to 78° after 93° Max

[wdrag]

Another band of showers and strong thunderstorms 11P-3A for parts of NJ/NYS.... w NJ may hear their dogs barking sometime between 11P-1A and maybe iso SVR.  

No other changes to Fri-Sat expectations.  Haven't seen any evening RTP's for easy MAXT summary.

Walt

 

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 97 here.

[SRRTA22]

@Rtd208 maybe?

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

@Rtd208 maybe?

Nahh

[Pequest]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Another band of showers and strong thunderstorms 11P-3A for parts of NJ/NYS.... w NJ may hear their dogs barking sometime between 11P-1A and maybe iso SVR.  

No other changes to Fri-Sat expectations.  Haven't seen any evening RTP's for easy MAXT summary.

Walt

 

Been watching the lightning from those cells out my sliding glass door for the last 30 minutes here in Warren County.

[Pequest]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Another band of showers and strong thunderstorms 11P-3A for parts of NJ/NYS.... w NJ may hear their dogs barking sometime between 11P-1A and maybe iso SVR.  

No other changes to Fri-Sat expectations.  Haven't seen any evening RTP's for easy MAXT summary.

Walt

 

Fizzle at the Delaware Water Gap. Ongoing lack of daytime heating has taken it's toll.  Not even a drop here in central Warren County just after midnight. Night all! 

[wdrag]

Time for the 12z/13 EC to back off on the bigger qpf tomorrow as per rather meek NAM  USA models.  06z still looks juicy up this way to I80 anyway for Sat.  

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 99 here.

 

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 92 here.