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August 2021 Discussion/Obs


George BM
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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS has a foot of rain for eastern NC over the next week.

I was just reading the disco for that area -- oh man I feel bad for the folks vacationing at the Outer Banks this week:

Tuesday through Thursday...A very wet three days are on tap for the
middle of the week. The unseasonably strong trough over the southern
Appalachians remains in place (potentially cutting a low off at
its base), ensuring that a deep tropical moisture belt remains
over the area. PWAT values of 2-2.5 inches prevail through the
period. At the surface, the boundary will generally remain along
the coast, with several weak waves riding along it about every
18 to 24 hours, leading to periods of increased rainfall
coverage and intensity. The heaviest rainfall is currently
expected to fall along and east of the boundary, with 3 day QPF
in the neighborhood of 6-8 inches along and south of US Hwy 17...

 

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2 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I was just reading the disco for that area -- oh man I feel bad for the folks vacationing at the Outer Banks this week:

Tuesday through Thursday...A very wet three days are on tap for the
middle of the week. The unseasonably strong trough over the southern
Appalachians remains in place (potentially cutting a low off at
its base), ensuring that a deep tropical moisture belt remains
over the area. PWAT values of 2-2.5 inches prevail through the
period. At the surface, the boundary will generally remain along
the coast, with several weak waves riding along it about every
18 to 24 hours, leading to periods of increased rainfall
coverage and intensity. The heaviest rainfall is currently
expected to fall along and east of the boundary, with 3 day QPF
in the neighborhood of 6-8 inches along and south of US Hwy 17...

 

Yeah not fun.

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Decent steady rain here over the last hour and a half. Not going to make the half to three quarters that was forecast, but not like I am worried about saving a lawn or anything lol.

0.35" so far. Looks like it should probably end in the next 20 mins. I doubt that line that develops along the front later will make it here.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Decent steady rain here over the last hour and a half. Not going to make the half to three quarters that was forecast, but not like I am worried about saving a lawn or anything lol.

0.35" so far. Looks like it should probably end in the next 20 mins. I doubt that line that develops along the front later will make it here.

0.44" total.

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Beautiful night in OC, MD.  (No rain and good amount of sun all afternoon).  Monday and Tuesday look ok.  I will be watching to see what happens Wed. And Th… before I head home…

WB GEFS 18Z looks wetter for midweek.  Since the prob maps never pan out in winter, might as well see if I can jinx the midweek rain on the shore by posting it.

06CE801D-43D8-425A-9C12-0F5DC065D8A2.png

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I doubt that line that develops along the front later will make it here.

You might be right,  but the line looks better now. The NWS has issued various marine warnings for the upper Chessy Bay. 

 

04 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

DCZ001-MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ054-020200-
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Central and Southeast
Howard-Southern Baltimore-Carroll-Northwest Montgomery-Northern
Baltimore-Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Southeast
Harford-Cecil-Northwest Harford-Northwest Howard-Arlington/Falls
Church/Alexandria-
904 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN DISTRICT
OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN ANNE ARUNDEL...
HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...HARFORD...NORTHERN CECIL...BALTIMORE...
NORTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGES AND NORTH CENTRAL ARLINGTON COUNTIES AND
BALTIMORE CITY...

At 904 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Conowingo to near Jarrettsville to
Reisterstown to near Sykesville to near Damascus to near Boyds.
Movement was south at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Baltimore, Arlington, Columbia, Germantown, Rockville, Bethesda,
Gaithersburg, Bowie, Severn, Olney, Pikesville, College Park, Middle
River, Greenbelt, Cockeysville, Langley Park, Beltsville, Elkridge,
Damascus and Aberdeen.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

 

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What a very anomalous summer down here!

MORE heavy rain tonight, we just started off August with 2.8 inches of fresh rain! Normal high is 99. Naaah, all we eked out, was 94. Power went out for 2 hours as dangerous cloud to ground lightning smashed down all over at 1245am local time Aug 2.

More rain likely Monday and rest of week.

All this rain is abnormal. Aug is average high of 99 low of 74 with clear blue skies and hot, dry, dusty.

Not this summer. Lots rain. Struggling with the lawn and the cucumber vines are growing about 4 inches per day. I am having a hard time keeping them tied to the stake, which is already too damned short and has had to be lengthened. Same goes for the tomato stakes.

You guys want rain? Come on down to south central Texas. We are already up to 35 inches on the year. 30 inches is normal for an entire year.

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10 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

I’m not sure who @mattie g sold his soul to in order to get every storm over the last few weeks, but I need a contact number.

You know...I hadn't looked at models all day. I was out running errands in the showers during the day, and I was shocked when I heard the rain hitting the roof last night. Not much a of a storm in that I don't even think there was a rumble of thunder, but it did rain hard for about 10 minutes.

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Is there anything in the recordkeeping that shows what longtime residents myself and my father have been sensing, that August in DC is not as awful as it used to be, or at least as it was in the 70s and 80s? Seems like the first signposts of summer's end (even if there's still plenty of warm days ahead) come earlier than they used to.

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16 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

I was just reading the disco for that area -- oh man I feel bad for the folks vacationing at the Outer Banks this week:

Tuesday through Thursday...A very wet three days are on tap for the
middle of the week. The unseasonably strong trough over the southern
Appalachians remains in place (potentially cutting a low off at
its base), ensuring that a deep tropical moisture belt remains
over the area. PWAT values of 2-2.5 inches prevail through the
period. At the surface, the boundary will generally remain along
the coast, with several weak waves riding along it about every
18 to 24 hours, leading to periods of increased rainfall
coverage and intensity. The heaviest rainfall is currently
expected to fall along and east of the boundary, with 3 day QPF
in the neighborhood of 6-8 inches along and south of US Hwy 17...

 

Yeah, I’m one of them.  Bad timing.  Hoping we can at least get some slightly drier days on Friday and Saturday.  

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46 minutes ago, jacindc said:

Is there anything in the recordkeeping that shows what longtime residents myself and my father have been sensing, that August in DC is not as awful as it used to be, or at least as it was in the 70s and 80s? Seems like the first signposts of summer's end (even if there's still plenty of warm days ahead) come earlier than they used to.

A quick look at monthly averages doesn't show anything too extraordinary for August in the 70s and 80s -- 1980 was a nasty summer though!  August is a pretty nice month here with the average high at DCA going from 88 to 84.

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7 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

A quick look at monthly averages doesn't show anything too extraordinary for August in the 70s and 80s -- 1980 was a nasty summer though!  August is a pretty nice month here with the average high at DCA going from 88 to 84.

I remember the summer of 1980 so well! 

I guess having an August birthday makes me a little more focused on my sense of its weather over the years. 

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