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SVR FF potential 2PM-midnight Thursday July 29: especially southern part of the NYC subforum along and s of I80 PA-NJ & LI

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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wdrag
wdrag

I've added the Wednesday afternoon update from SPC.  My focus is basically along the warm front-triple point wherever that traverses.  CAPE and wind field/shear is good enough for iso  SVR up to I84 l

Rtd208
Rtd208

The heavy rain threat looks to be the bigger threat for the NYC metro although isolated severe is possible. I think most of the severe weather may wind up being across S NJ, south of Monmouth/Mercer C

Tatamy
Tatamy

The damage paths from these tornadoes extend all the way SE from near me in the Allentown/Bethlehem area to the Trenton area and then across NJ.  There are places only a few miles from my location tha

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hudsonvalley21

hudsonvalley21

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Pay attention to that line moving SE from northern PA.  That should reach NW NJ in another hour or so and it looks healthy right now.

From the KBGM area,

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 927 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 NYZ024-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-048-072-300215- Chemung-Tioga-Broome-Sullivan-Delaware-Southern Wayne-Wyoming-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Bradford-Lackawanna-Pike- 927 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BROOME... SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN CHEMUNG...SOUTHWESTERN TIOGA... SULLIVAN...SUSQUEHANNA...NORTHEASTERN LACKAWANNA...WAYNE... NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD...NORTH CENTRAL PIKE AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING COUNTIES... At 926 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Roscoe to near Montrose to near Pine City. Movement was southeast at 45 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Rockland, Chemung, Elmira, Fallsburg, Southport, Carbondale, Monticello, Sayre, Honesdale and Waverly.

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Tatamy

Tatamy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Little bit but not on NJ.  Eating lobster.  Needed time to unwind, even supposedly retired.  Natures watering has made for fantastic gardens

Mt. Holly did a fantastic job with timely warnings yesterday.  Amazing video coming out this morning of the damage in Bucks Cty.  Very fortunate that there were no deaths or serious injuries that occurred from the tornados moving through these densely populated areas.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
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1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

I am thinking they find F2 perhaps F3 damage in Bucks Cty after they complete the surveys.  The upside if there is any is they will not have to travel too far from the WFO to do this.

There was a debris ball signature on radar, I'm not sure that's ever happened before up here.

Allentown had 3" of rain?

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Mt. Holly did a fantastic job with timely warnings yesterday.  Amazing video coming out this morning of the damage in Bucks Cty.  Very fortunate that there were no deaths or serious injuries that occurred from the tornados moving through these densely populated areas.

5 injuries though :(

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Tatamy

Tatamy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder what the EF number on that PA tornado will be?  Scary stuff!  It got 20 miles NE of Philly, and I thought it was going to hit Allentown!

We didn't get much here on Long Island, just light rains.

They have a big job ahead of them with the storm surveys.  The longer length tracks are going to run from about Solebury, PA to Hamilton Square, NJ.  It looks like there were touchdowns near Lakehurst, NJ and Barnegat, NJ.  The track across south central NJ could be longer because much of it was in less populated and heavily wooded areas so no immediate reports are available.  The more violent tornado(s) near Bensalem and Trevor had shorter tracks.  There are also shorter tracks to be possibly documented near Allentown.  If you have not already done so look at the video posted by Newman on the Philly sub forum of the spectacular tornado near Lebanon, PA.  I am basing my comments upon the live radar reports that I saw on NBC 10 yesterday evening.  Those folks did a good job tracking these storms.  

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

They have a big job ahead of them with the storm surveys.  The longer length tracks are going to run from about Solebury, PA to Hamilton Square, NJ.  It looks like there were touchdowns near Lakehurst, NJ and Barnegat, NJ.  The track across south central NJ could be longer because much of it was in less populated and heavily wooded areas so no immediate reports are available.  The more violent tornado(s) near Bensalem and Trevor had shorter tracks.  There are also shorter tracks to be possibly documented near Allentown.  If you have not already done so look at the video posted by Newman on the Philly sub forum of the spectacular tornado near Lebanon, PA.  I am basing my comments upon the live radar reports that I saw on NBC 10 yesterday evening.  Those folks did a good job tracking these storms.  

This looks like something that would happen in the South lol.

I wonder how much rainfall and winds my other home got in Jim Thorpe (near Albrightsville and Penn Forest township.)  I'm going up there on Saturday.  Do you have any numbers or reports out of there?

 

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Tatamy

Tatamy

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This looks like something that would happen in the South lol.

I wonder how much rainfall and winds my other home got in Jim Thorpe (near Albrightsville and Penn Forest township.)  I'm going up there on Saturday.  Do you have any numbers or reports out of there?

 

I checked on the Davis site.  Stations in Lake Harmony and Blakeslee recorded 1.08” and 1.00” respectively in the past 24 hours. These are the closest sites to your community.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
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43 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Do you have a weather station at your place?

I do but not attached yet.  I need to get it set up at the right elevation for the anemometer.  I'm always worried about critters lol.  The last one I had, the squirrels chewed through the wires.  (well I think it was the squirrels).

 

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Tatamy

Tatamy

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I do but not attached yet.  I need to get it set up at the right elevation for the anemometer.  I'm always worried about critters lol.  The last one I had, the squirrels chewed through the wires.  (well I think it was the squirrels).

 

Use one that is wireless to keep the critters at bay.  You can mount it on a deck or fence post if you don’t want to go up to your roof (a shed/garage roof will work fine).

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