HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 It's kinda hard to tell with this storm motion if it's gonna hit Michigan as forecasted or go down into Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Here we go! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1379.html Although, it's "Rusk" County... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Skilling said trees and powerlines were down in Tomahawk WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 It's kinda hard to tell with this storm motion if it's gonna hit Michigan as forecasted or go down into IllinoisUnless things change soon, Michigan is out of it.Trajectory has been more S to SSE.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 New tornado warning for the western side of the complex. Usually you expect severe events to start winding down after the sun sets. This one is just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Unless things change soon, Michigan is out of it. Trajectory has been more S to SSE. . Weird how even the latest HRRR run and the spc still expects it to take a sudden right turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 21 minutes ago, TheNiño said: Wausau is getting absolutely hammered. Trees and powerlines reported down throughout the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Looks like the mcs will dive southwest of guidance. Fairly typical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: It's kinda hard to tell with this storm motion if it's gonna hit Michigan as forecasted or go down into Illinois The orientation isn't good for the derecho the CAMS were showing. zzzz.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Weird how even the latest HRRR run and the spc still expects it to take a sudden right turnNone of the CAMs are doing well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Showing some serious winds east of Eau Claire. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this thing start showing 100 MPH radar indicated within the hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted July 29, 2021 Author Share Posted July 29, 2021 Whatever happens here’s your reminder to charge the phone/iPad tonight just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 17 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Whatever happens here’s your reminder to charge the phone/iPad tonight just in case. And if a person does not have a phone/IPad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 If anything these storms appear to be getting more supercellular with time, especially the eastern one now over Iola/Scandinavia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Just now, bowtie` said: And if a person does not have a phone/IPad? Join the 21st century or perish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Yikes... Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1380 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Areas affected...portions of western Wisconsin. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399... Valid 290251Z - 290345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399 continues. SUMMARY...Very strong winds (80+ mph) likely for the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of very intense winds has developed with a bowing segment along the Chippewa, Eau Claire, and Clark county lines. The KARX WSR-88D has the best viewing angle for this storm, but the extreme wind values being sampled at ~6000 feet have resulted in considerable dealiasing issues with the velocity data at the 0.5 degree tilt. However, by using higher tilts and other viewing angles such as KDLH, there is high confidence that winds between 8 and 10kft are at or above 80 knots. Therefore, areas near the apex of this bow are likely experiencing surface winds in excess of 80mph. Given the favorable downstream environment and the fact that this bowing segment is still early in its life cycle, even stronger winds are possible as it continues south-southeast over the next 1 to 2 hours. In fact, the early stages of a bookend vortex may be starting in eastern Clark county indicating the system is likely in its maturing stage. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 HRRR is now showing additional supercells popping in Lower Michigan as the better forcing moves down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Supercell over Waupaca is moving only 30 MPH (according to warning text) while bowing segment over Neillsville is moving 60 MPH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 The line is really ramping up right over Eau Claire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Surprised none of the warning texts have used enhanced/PDS wording or mentioned winds greater than 70 MPH yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Watch expanded to include parts of far SE MN/NE IA to account for cells developing in the Twin Cities area. Mention of hurricane force gusts possible in an area barely covered by the slight/marginal in the convective outlook. Grant/Crawford in WI also added. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1381.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Just like Alek said this morning that the complex would go much farther west than the models predicted and be an I-90 special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 MOD Risk & PDS STW but TWC still airs programs? Are they at least giving top & bottom hr updates? Admittedly PDS STW is quite rare, but a MOD Risk this time of year definitely deserves attention. EDIT They're not even giving 30 min updates! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Time to consider if this going further west than expected could enhance the severe threat later today further east and maybe have it stretch further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Time to consider if this going further west than expected could enhance the severe threat later today further east and maybe have it stretch further Thats if the capping further to the south of the line doesn't have an impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Looks like the line is trying to split rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 The supercell that's been NW of OSH has evolved into a classic book-end vortex over the past 30 min or so. GRB is sampling 90+ mph outbound winds around 3000'. This feature looks to directly affect the Milwaukee metro area and may at least clip portions of Chicagoland. It has yet to encounter the most favorable instability, unfortunately. Likely to be a threat for rain-wrapped tornadoes with it off and on, as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Looks pretty insane now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 No PPV radar access, but free Wunderground radial velocity, pretty sure the warned tornado is a tornado. https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/wi/milwaukee/mkx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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