August 2021 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 average or "normal" values. 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

deadline: 06z Sunday August 1st. 

[so_whats_happening]

DCA +.8

NYC +1.0

BOS -0.8

ORD -1.4

ATL -0.3

IAH +0.4

DEN +1.1

PHX +0.3

SEA +1.4

Before I forget lol

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

1.0      1.0       1.0       1.0     1.5     2.0     1.0      1.5      0.5

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +0.5

NYC: +0.9

BOS: +0.4

ORD: -0.7

ATL: -0.5

IAH: -0.2

DEN: +1.6

PHX: +0.7

SEA: +1.2

[Rjay]

DCA: +1.0

NYC: +1.2

BOS: +0.7

ORD:  0.0

ATL:  0.0

IAH:  0.0

DEN: +2.5

PHX: +1.0

SEA: +2.0

[Tom]

DCA: +0.2

NYC: +0.5

BOS: +0.5

ORD:  -0.1

ATL:  +0.9

IAH:  +0.5

DEN: +1.5

PHX: +0.5

SEA: +1.1

[wxallannj]

DCA: +1.2

NYC: +1.4

BOS: +1.6

ORD: +1.7

ATL: -0.8

IAH: -1.2

DEN: +1.4

PHX: -0.5

SEA: +0.5

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.4      0.6       0.5     0.0    -0.7    -1.0    0.2     0.9      1.6

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +0.3

NYC:  +0.6

BOS:  +1.1

ORD:  +1.2

ATL:  -0.4

IAD:  -0.8

DEN:  +1.1

PHX:  +0.9

SEA:  +0.2

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.4    -0.1      0.9     1.7     -0.5    -0.7    0.4     -0.8      1.2

[Roger Smith]

I have the idea that this month will turn hot in the east towards the end, whether that overcomes a cool start or not remains to be seen, but will go a bit warmer than I might otherwise from the guidance available ...

+1.5 _ +1.8 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.5 __ -0.5 _ +0.8

[bkviking]

Late. Darn. Snuck up. 
 

DCA +0.5

NYC +0.8

BOS +0.7

ORD +0.4

ATL -0.2

IAH +0.9

DEN +1.5

PHX +0.5

SEA +1.5

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for August 2021

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ bias

Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _+1.8 _+2.0 __ +2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _ -0.5 _+0.8 ___ +0.70

wxallannj ________________ +1.2 _+1.4 _+1.6 __ +1.7 _ -0.8 _ -1.2 __ +1.4 _ -0.5 _+0.5 ___ +0.00

RJay _____________________ +1.0 _+1.2 _+0.7 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ +2.5 _+1.0 _+2.0 ___ +0.34

Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ +0.58

so_whats_happening ____ +0.8 _+1.0 _ -0.8 __ -1.4 _ -0.3 _+0.4 __ +1.1 _ +0.3 _+1.4 ___ -0.31

hudsonvalley21 __________ +0.5 _+0.9 _+0.4 __ -0.7 _ -0.5 _-0.2 __ +1.6 _+0.7 _+1.2 ___ -0.16

___ Consensus ___________ +0.5 _+0.9 _+0.8 __ +0.5 _-0.3 _-0.1 __ +1.3 _+0.5 _+1.2

BKViking ____ (-1%) ______+0.5 _+0.8 _+0.7 __ +0.4 _-0.2 _+0.9 __ +1.5 _+0.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.14

DonSutherland1 _________ +0.4 _+0.6 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _ -0.7 _ -1.0 __ +0.2 _+0.9 _+1.6 ___ -0.31

wxdude64 _______________ +0.3 _+0.6 _+1.1 __ +1.2 _ -0.4 _ -0.8 __ +1.1 _+0.9 _+0.2 ___ -0.12

Tom ______________________+0.2 _+0.5 _+0.5 __ -0.1 _+0.9 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _+0.5 _+1.1 ___ +0.03

Deformation Zone ________ 0.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _ -1.0 _ -2.0 __ +0.5 _-2.5 _+1.5 ___ -0.76

___ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ -0.59

RodneyS _________________-0.4 _ -0.1 _+0.9 __ +1.7 _ -0.5 _ -0.7 ___ +0.4 _-0.8 _+1.2 ___ -0.40

[Roger Smith]

After ten days, anomalies and projections:

______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(11th) ____ (anom 10d) ______ --2.7 _ --2.7 _ --0.7 __ +0.4 _--1.5 _+0.6 __ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7

(21st) ____ (anom 20d) ______ --0.2 _ +0.5 _ +3.0 __ +1.3 _--0.7 _+0.4 __ +2.1 _ --3.0 _ +2.2

 

(11th) ____ (p 20d anom) ____ --1.0 _ --1.0 __ 0.0 ___ +0.5 _ --1.0 _+1.0 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.5

(11th) ____ (p27d anom) _____ --0.5 _--0.5 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ --0.5_ +1.0 __ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0

(21st) ____ (p31d anom) _____ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.0*__ 0.0 _ +1.0 __ +2.0 _ --2.0 _ +1.5

*ORD changed on 25th from +1.0 to +2.0

(28th) ____ (p31d anom) _____ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +4.0 __ +3.0 __ 0.0 _ +0.5 __ +2.5 _ --2.0 _ +1.0

final values ___________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +4.2 __ +3.3 _ +0.2 _ +0.8 __ +2.5 _ --1.8 _ +0.1

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Final scores for August 2021

Scores are based on the end of month values in the previous post above. BOS scores have been set by minimum progression (60, 55, 50 etc) as highest raw score was 56. However, some of the lower raw scores are maintained since they turned out higher than the progression values. The boosted scores have this symbol ^.  

1% reductions for BKViking are incorporated into the scoring (*)

 

FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS__east _ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL 

Roger Smith ____________100 _ 92 _60^__ 252__ 74_ 74 _ 96 __ 244 _ 496 _ 80 _ 74 _ 86 __ 240 ____ 736

wxallannj _______________ 94 _100 _ 55^__ 249 __ 68 _ 80 _ 60 __ 208 _ 457 _ 78 _ 74 _ 92 __244 ____ 701

wxdude64 ______________ 76 _ 84 _ 50^__ 210 __ 58 _ 88 _ 68 __ 214 _ 424 __ 72 _ 46 _ 98 __216 ____ 640

RJay ____________________ 90 _ 96 _ 30 __ 216 __ 34 _ 96 _ 84 __ 214 _ 430 _100_ 44 _ 62 __206 ____ 636 

BKViking ____ (-1%) _____ 79*_ 87*_ 30 __196 __ 42 _ 91*_ 97*__230 _ 426 _ 79*_ 53*_ 71*__203 ____ 629

Scotty Lightning ________ 90 _ 92 _ 45^__ 227 __ 54 _ 74 _ 76 __ 204 _ 431 _ 70 _ 34 _ 92 __ 196 ____ 627

___ Consensus __________ 80 _ 90 _ 32 __ 202 __ 44 _ 90 _ 82 __ 216 _ 418 _ 76 _ 54 _ 78 __ 208 ____ 626

RodneyS ________________62 _ 70 _ 35^__ 171 __ 68 _ 86 _ 70 __ 224 __ 395 _ 58 _ 80 _ 78 __ 216 ____ 611

Tom _____________________74 _ 82 _ 26 __ 182 __ 32 _ 86 _ 94 __ 212 _ 394 __ 80 _ 54 _ 80 __ 214____ 608

hudsonvalley21 _________ 80 _ 90 _ 24 __ 194 __ 20 _ 86 _ 80 __ 186 _ 380 _ 82 _ 50 _ 78 __ 210 ____ 590

___ Normal ______________70 _ 72 _ 16 __ 158 __ 34 _ 96 _ 84 __ 214 _ 372 __ 50 _ 64 _ 98 __ 212 ____ 584

Deformation Zone ______ 70 _ 82 _ 45^__ 197 __ 44 _ 76 _ 44 __ 164 _ 361 __ 60 _ 86 _ 72 __ 216 ____ 577

so_whats_happening ___ 86 _ 92 _ 05^ __ 183 __ 06 _ 90 _ 92 __ 188 _ 371 _ 72 _ 58 _ 74 __ 204 ____ 575

DonSutherland1 _________78 _ 84 _ 26 __ 188 __ 34 _ 82 _ 64 __ 180 _ 368 __ 54 _ 46 _ 70 __ 170 ____ 538

__________________________________________________________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT 

DCA _ At +1.5 Roger Smith with warmest forecast (+1.5) has a win.

NYC _ At +1.4 wxallannj (+1.4) has a win, Roger Smith (+1.8) a loss.

BOS _ At +4.2 Roger Smith with warmest forecast (+2.0) has a win.

ORD _ At +3.3 Roger Smith with warmest forecast (+2.0) has a win.

DEN _ at +2.5, RJay with warmest forecast (+2.5) takes a win. 

PHX _ At -1.8 Deformation Zone with coldest forecast (-2.5) has a win. 

SEA _ At +0.1 wxdude64 with coldest forecast (+0.2) has a win. Normal also scores a win.

ATL, IAH did not qualify for extreme forecasts. 

[Roger Smith]

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Aug) - - - - ============ >>>> 

 

High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. New feature _ change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Normal and Consensus both dropped one position as one forecaster passed each of them. Other changes shown do not include forecasters moving past consensus or normal.  

Only two points separate second and third and both have moved to within about 40 points of the lead still held by Don Sutherland so it would appear that we have quite a close race entering the last third of the contest year. 

 

FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 564 _592 _412 _ 1568 __481 _610 _536 _1627__3195 __376 _534 _536 _ 1446___ 4641

wxallannj (up 3) ______________ 528 _580 _427 _ 1535 __388 _520 _554 _ 1462 __2997 __526 _511 _564 _ 1601___ 4598

BKViking (down 1) ____________557 _609 _439 _ 1605 __392 _581 _529 _ 1502__3107 __437 _ 501 _551 _ 1489___ 4596

wxdude64 ____________________ 613 _585 _453 _ 1651 __383 _536 _499 _ 1418__3069 __499 _491 _527 _ 1517___ 4586

RodneyS (down 2) ____________ 550 _576 _400 _ 1526 __401 _596 _482 _ 1479 __3005 __448 _552 _556 _1556___ 4561

 

___ Consensus (down 1) ______ 588 _612 _422 _ 1622 __384 _548 _520 _ 1452 __3074 __436 _488 _534 _ 1458___ 4532

 

Tom ___________________________570 _619 _462 _ 1651__330 _485 _556 _ 1371 __3022 __490 _495 _492 _ 1477 ___ 4499

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 560 _580 _451 _ 1591 __361 _590 _490 _ 1441 __3032 __390 _471 _572 _ 1433___ 4465

Scotty Lightning (up 1) ________564 _564 _379 _ 1507 __306 _514 _488 _ 1308 __2815 __456 _472 _560 _ 1488___ 4303

___ Normal (down 1) __________ 568 _520 _326 _ 1414 __268 _560 _550 _ 1378 __2792 __466 _496 _532 _ 1494___ 4286

so_whats_happening (down 1)_601 _ 563 _306 _ 1470 __400 _598 _443 _ 1441 __2911 __362 _482 _499 _ 1343___ 4254

RJay __________________________ 500 _532 _434 _ 1466 __390 _506 _478 _ 1374 __ 2840 __396 _387 _430 _ 1213___ 4053

Roger Smith ___________________514 _440 _225 _ 1179 __ 397 _438 _542 _ 1377 __ 2556 __396 _445 _512 _ 1353___ 3909

Deformation Zone _ (2/8) ______138 _ 112 __70 __ 320 __ 84 __126 __142 __ 352____672 __ 122 _ 120 _ 138 __380____1052

 

Best scores for the locations and regions 

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan 

wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 3 _____ 0 __

BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr

wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t)

RodneyS _____________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 2 __ Feb, Jul

___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

Scotty Lightning ______________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __

___ Normal ___________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May, Jul 

so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) 

RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 _____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

Roger Smith __________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1  __Jun, Aug 

Deformation Zone ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____0 _____ 0  

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS

High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify.

So far this year, 53 locations out of 72 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July, and 7 in August.

Of those, 27 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 26 to coldest.

A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month.

Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been six shared wins (one by three) accounting for the 53 total wins (excl Normal). 

 

FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug ____ TOTAL to date

Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- _ 3-1 __ 11-2

RodneyS ______________ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ 2-1 __ 1-0 __ 6-0 _ --- __ 9-1

wxallannj ______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ --- _ 1-0 __ 9-0

___ Normal _____________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ --- __ 5-0 _ 1-0 __ 9-0

DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ --- __ 8-1

RJay ___________________ --- __ --- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ 1-0 __ 7-0

so_whats_happening ___--- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- __ 4-0

wxdude64 _____________ --- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- _ 1-0 __ 4-0

Tom ____________________---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- __ 2-0

Deformation Zone _____ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 2-0

BKViking _______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 0-1 _ --- __ 2-1

Scotty Lightning _______ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 1-1 __ 1-0 _ --- __ 2-1

__________________________________

A few days from now I will post the summer update for the four seasons sub-contest. 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Four Seasons contest updated standings

 

FORECASTER ____ SCORE WINTER 20-21 ___ PTS __  SPRING 21 _ PTS __  SUMMER 21 _PTS __TOTAL

DonSutherland1 _____ 730 + 1163 = 1893 _____ 10 _______1806 _____ 6 ______ 1672 ____ 4 ____ 20

wxallannj _____________668 + 1006 = 1674 ______3 _______ 1780 _____ 5 _______1812 ____10 ____ 18

Tom _________________ 668 + 1033 = 1701 ______ 4 _______ 1841 ____ 10 ______ 1625 ____ 1 ____ 15

BKViking _____________ 668 + 1094 = 1762 ______5 _______ 1768 _____4 _______ 1734 ____ 6 ____ 15

RodneyS _____________ 616 + 1229 = 1845 ______ 7 _______ 1528 _____1 _______ 1804 ____ 7 ____ 15

wxdude64 ___________ 500 + 1075 = 1575 ______ 1 ________ 1835 _____7________1676 ____ 5 ____ 13

 

___ Consensus _______ 689 + 1088 = 1777 _____ 6 _______ 1774 _____ 4 _______ 1670 ____ 3 ____ 13

 

hudsonvalley21 ______ 716 + 1047 = 1763 ______ 6 _______ 1760 _____3 _______ 1658 ____ 3 ____ 12

 

___ Normal ___________ 524 + 950 = 1474 ________1 ________1638 ______1 _______1698 ____ 5 ____ 7

 

Roger Smith __________580 + 959 = 1539 ________ 1 _______ 1300 ______1 _______1650 ____ 2 ____ 4

Scotty Lightning _____ 586 + 1020 = 1606 _______2 _______ 1684 _____ 1 _______1599 ____ 1 ____ 4

so_whats_happening _ dnp + 928 = 928__(2/3)__ 1 _______ 1733 _____ 2 _______1593 ____ 1 ____ 4

RJay _________________ 686 + 864 = 1550 ________ 1 _______ 1634 _____ 1 _______1555 ____ 1 ____ 3

Deformation Zone ____ (not entered) __________________________________________1052 (2/3) 1 ____ 1

___________________________________________________________

Winter scores are total of Dec 2020 and (Jan+Feb) 2021. 

Points _ 10 for high score, 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, and 1 point for all who enter at least 2/3.

This still looks like a wide open contest at the moment with one season left. 

(scores and points for consensus and Normal do not alter progressions of scores for forecasters).

______________________________________________________________

Worth noting that your host finished first in two of three summer contests and last in the other one.