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August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?


Damage In Tolland
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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro went East some but EPS stayed same. With the massive WAR building NW. it would stand to reason it keeps coming NW with downpours and storms Thursday/ Fri  GFS looks lost as usual 

18z NAM agrees but holds it off til Thursday

namconus_apcpn_neus_26.png

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27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

18z NAM agrees but holds it off til Thursday

namconus_apcpn_neus_26.png

Yeah I'm fine with that on Thursday. Modeling had been creeping west with the initial wave on Wednesday but I think that stays offshore, or at least east of CT.    Probably not ideal beach weather on Wednesday in CT with the clouds and NE flow but as long as it's not a washout I'll take it. 

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32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t know man. I think Thursday and Friday keep coming west with heavy rains/ storms back to Berks. Nammy seeing it. War strength always under modeled till closer in

I was mostly referring to weekend and beyond. As far as this week, I’m not sure how far west it goes. Id actually take a little natural Help before Ricky comes and dries us out. 

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was mostly referring to weekend and beyond. As far as this week, I’m not sure how far west it goes. Id actually take a little natural Help before Ricky comes and dries us out. 

I’d bet we see some pretty big t storms next week from about 95 north and west each afternoon 

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Heaviest rain rate perhaps of the convective season. 

Man that up the coast retrograding warm front has that upper bound PWAT green rain curtain look in the NAM - NAM did that also back in June when that similar ordeal played out tho. The physics in that model trying to close off eddies along the warm boundary from embedded convective nodes - creating its own feed back mechanics that gooses QPF;  it smacks as the same thing. Wouldn’t shock me if that’s much less but regional reintroduction to the warm soup. Might briefly take on a Bahamas blue pattern as that front smears through while losing identity …

In fact hard pressed to see where/how that rich theta-e then advects out. That’s a reentrance no exit synopsis out there. 

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10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He gets very rose colored glasses like. Wants Stein but misses the WAR strength always stronger than modeled so everything ends up west in the end 

he 00z ECENS mean has 2+ inches storm total rainfall over RI and southeast MA Wed night thru Fri. 00z GEFS is slightly farther southeast with the axis of heavy rain, more focused over ACK and points southeast. Thus, could be a sharp cutoff in precip along/near I-95 corridor.

Congratulations Nantucket.

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15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Noreaster from ECT to Portland Maine  Thursday 

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Heaviest rain Wednesday eve - Thursday night is likely across Southeast Mass. 1-2"+ possible in a couple waves of locally heavy rain that moves through. Won't rain that whole stretch of time, but when it does, downpours possible. Totals likely much lower northwest of I-95.

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1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Heaviest rain Wednesday eve - Thursday night is likely across Southeast Mass. 1-2"+ possible in a couple waves of locally heavy rain that moves through. Won't rain that whole stretch of time, but when it does, downpours possible. Totals likely much lower northwest of I-95.

p/c is only for 40% showers here.....work your way down as you head away.

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