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August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?


Damage In Tolland
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Another 0.68” through the tipper and I was a local min. Gene had over an inch. Time to dry it out. There’s actually algae forming on the path down to the run and I slipped and fell on it this morning. Never fell on it when it was ice before. lol

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Another 0.68” through the tipper and I was a local min. Gene had over an inch. Time to dry it out. There’s actually algae forming on the path down to the run and I slipped and fell on it this morning. Never fell on it when it was ice before. lol

Plenty more rain coming later this week/weekend 

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21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Another 0.68” through the tipper and I was a local min. Gene had over an inch. Time to dry it out. There’s actually algae forming on the path down to the run and I slipped and fell on it this morning. Never fell on it when it was ice before. lol

Our back porch steps were growing algae. I had to scrub and clean it off

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55 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

and lol @ using raw 2m temps

Yeah .. 

Hopefully the following pun actually ruins someone's day but ... it should be "air" apparent when looking at the overall synoptic parametric evolution, combined with experience, that there can be as much as a 10 F cold bias with that stupid built in buzz kill. 

It's interesting that this seems to only work with summer and diurnal heating ( day ).  It seems the imperfections are centered in the modulating in of solar into the daily noise - the models don't resolve that. 

In the winter, ( ...uh, I'm talking to the general reader at the moment ), the advection terms have more proxy over the temp .. It's why during cold outbreaks sometimes, particularly nearing 40 N and above latitudes, the coldest temperature can even occur at 1pm in full sun.  The sun is overwhelmed by the planetary signal.  I mean for extremer cold invasion deals.   I nice 1033 mb high with a DP of -10 cresting overhead on January 4th over a sparkling snow pack overnight will cease engines from turning over just fine the next morning.   But the models won't error 2-meter raw temps for cold in that/these sort of scenarios.

It's just that for some reason, a +20C 850 mb layer passing in from the W with off-shore light flow, no clouds, sends the Euro 4pm surface temps to an eye-popping 89 F at Logan pretty ruitinely at D7.  The other aspect is that the raw 2-meter temp error that Forkness points out ..it's all time-dependent. The raws values are almost exact at D0+ 12 hrs.   Or at least much better.  There's probably aspects about the modeling tech we don't know that are taking place in operation.

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

meh end of week not really turning into much. Boundary looks to stay pretty far off-shore and even weaken quite a bit. Dynamics are pretty meh. Don't see dews very high either...maybe mid-60's (especially closer to coast).

Better look at something other than GFS. It’s a soaker 

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at EPS. It is a soaker and muggy with spinner potential 

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah GFS is a non event. I dunno, maybe it's more of a ORH-BDL on SE thing? 

I'm leaning more towards a few narrow areas of heavy rainfall but not a region-wide event. May see one or two axis of heavy rain. I guess the euro does support chance for strong storms Friday but pretty big differences between euro/gfs right now on how everything evolves. 

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Something I don't  like about a 'big heat' signal out of this outlook period in question.

I mentioned three factors yesterday that are still in play imho -

It helps that the GFS is 10% some -odd trended in favor I suppose, but it's flatter overall still. 

The Euro tends to over-amplify everything through some magnifying lens ... roughly D5-7 ...

It tends to take whatever it is handling around D3.5 and 4.5 ... 5, and just arbitrarily applies some 20+% audacity to the charts.   Suddenly a flat ridge novas a bit... Or a weak impulse up over N Manitoba circa D3 ... deriving power from the unknown ( here we go again), if the base-line pattern is even slightly +PNAP mode the Euro somehow torques the entire hemisphere around a defining R-wave event, calving out a core closed cyclone down 5 contours beneath history over Maine three days later...   zaggeratin' to make the point. 

It's modest at times ..but the operational version does tend to "wash" the charts at the temporal seam where mid range fades to the extended.  It could be basing out the flow too far in the west on D6 as it applies its 'cleaning,' ..and that concomitantly sends heights and 850s and everything ballooning over eastern America.  Not sure...

 

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Wiz' ... I think we're too focused ( friendly criticism :) ) wrt detailing aspects ...looking and depending and reliant on details that are pretty equally probabilistic to set up, more or less, in either direction, for D4- 7

I think the general circulation mode suggest thunder chance, and we can worry about whether details will formulate in/on time, as the overal period gets underway.

If the overarching structure transpires, even say a 50/50 slop blend of the operational Euro/GFS ... I think you run the potential of MCS' in there.  That's a west flow at 500 mb ( that is modestly faster than normal, too - ) over top a 700 mb WSW flow and an 850 mb SW flow.  That is an inherently geostrophic unstable scenario where impossible-to-define located theta-e axis tend to situate, and probably MCS umbilical and feed off them as they conveyor along. 

I mean it's a general theme at least to me that seems supported.  

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wiz' ... I think you're too focused ( friendly criticism :) ) with aspects ...looking and depending and reliant on details that are pretty equally probabilistic in either direction, for D4- 7 ...

I think the general circulation mode suggest convection threats, and we can worry about whether details will formulate in/on time, as the overal period gets underway.

If the overarching structure transpires, even say a 50/50 slop blend of the operational Euro/GFS ... I think you run the potential of MCS' in there.  That's a west flow at 500 mb ( that is modestly faster than normal, too - ) over top a 700 mb WSW flow and an 850 mb SW flow.  That is an inherently geostrophic unstable scenario where impossible-to-define located theta-e axis tend to situate, and probably MCS umbilical and feed off them as they conveyor along. 

I mean it's a general theme at least to me that seems supported.  

For Thurs - Sun period? 

I certainly agree with convective threats during that period and perhaps alot of the rain that occurs during this period if more convectively driven than synoptically...though they key word here being more...as there will be synoptic aid but I don't see it being enough to support heavy rains over a widespread area. 

The pattern moving into next week could certainly favor some MCS potential, especially northern New England. 

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Another 0.68” through the tipper and I was a local min. Gene had over an inch. Time to dry it out. There’s actually algae forming on the path down to the run and I slipped and fell on it this morning. Never fell on it when it was ice before. lol

Ended up with 1.41".   That is the biggest rainfall this summer.  Our pond is now 1/2" filled.  Usually it is dry by now.  Unlike most of you I am happy for the 10" over the past month and cool weather.  Gardens and lawn look amazing

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