dendrite Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 Another 0.68” through the tipper and I was a local min. Gene had over an inch. Time to dry it out. There’s actually algae forming on the path down to the run and I slipped and fell on it this morning. Never fell on it when it was ice before. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Another 0.68” through the tipper and I was a local min. Gene had over an inch. Time to dry it out. There’s actually algae forming on the path down to the run and I slipped and fell on it this morning. Never fell on it when it was ice before. lol Plenty more rain coming later this week/weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Plenty more rain coming later this week/weekend Maybe a 90° dew on the Davis? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Maybe a 90° dew on the Davis? Certainly an 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: Another 0.68” through the tipper and I was a local min. Gene had over an inch. Time to dry it out. There’s actually algae forming on the path down to the run and I slipped and fell on it this morning. Never fell on it when it was ice before. lol Our back porch steps were growing algae. I had to scrub and clean it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 Could be a soaker later this week. For now, we dry...even saw some dust kicked up from mowing yesterday. Things still pretty wet though in the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitinsvilleWX Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Could be a soaker later this week. For now, we dry...even saw some dust kicked up from mowing yesterday. Things still pretty wet though in the ground. I’m off work today. Looks like some sun and Stein for a change when I have a weekday off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 Euro op is an absolute blow torch. It's coming. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro op is an absolute blow torch. It's coming. I see 76-78 highs thru Friday on euro OP with a bit cooler Thursday for most of area. i can wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro op is an absolute blow torch. It's coming. any EML's coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I see 76-78 highs thru Friday on euro OP with a bit cooler Thursday for most of area. i can wait Dews and storms/ rains Thursday and Friday so those aren’t cool comfy days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 On 7/28/2021 at 3:43 PM, forkyfork said: the real heat comes after the 7th imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Could be a soaker later this week. For now, we dry...even saw some dust kicked up from mowing yesterday. Things still pretty wet though in the ground. Pretty nice long low dew spell. Dried out nicely. Who doesn't love today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 and lol @ using raw 2m temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dews and storms/ rains Thursday and Friday so those aren’t cool comfy days lol Yea cloudy and muggy. No one likes that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 Ok, what’s the Over/Under on > 90f Highs for August 8-18’th for metro west or Nw Boston given this modeled “look” say KBED or KASH (away from light marine influence ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea cloudy and muggy. No one likes that. End of week is a stormy soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 Surprisingly little (0.19") in the gauge this morning - west was best - but then some brief showers from tiny spots on radar. Should be about done now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 meh end of week not really turning into much. Boundary looks to stay pretty far off-shore and even weaken quite a bit. Dynamics are pretty meh. Don't see dews very high either...maybe mid-60's (especially closer to coast). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 55 minutes ago, forkyfork said: and lol @ using raw 2m temps Yeah .. Hopefully the following pun actually ruins someone's day but ... it should be "air" apparent when looking at the overall synoptic parametric evolution, combined with experience, that there can be as much as a 10 F cold bias with that stupid built in buzz kill. It's interesting that this seems to only work with summer and diurnal heating ( day ). It seems the imperfections are centered in the modulating in of solar into the daily noise - the models don't resolve that. In the winter, ( ...uh, I'm talking to the general reader at the moment ), the advection terms have more proxy over the temp .. It's why during cold outbreaks sometimes, particularly nearing 40 N and above latitudes, the coldest temperature can even occur at 1pm in full sun. The sun is overwhelmed by the planetary signal. I mean for extremer cold invasion deals. I nice 1033 mb high with a DP of -10 cresting overhead on January 4th over a sparkling snow pack overnight will cease engines from turning over just fine the next morning. But the models won't error 2-meter raw temps for cold in that/these sort of scenarios. It's just that for some reason, a +20C 850 mb layer passing in from the W with off-shore light flow, no clouds, sends the Euro 4pm surface temps to an eye-popping 89 F at Logan pretty ruitinely at D7. The other aspect is that the raw 2-meter temp error that Forkness points out ..it's all time-dependent. The raws values are almost exact at D0+ 12 hrs. Or at least much better. There's probably aspects about the modeling tech we don't know that are taking place in operation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: meh end of week not really turning into much. Boundary looks to stay pretty far off-shore and even weaken quite a bit. Dynamics are pretty meh. Don't see dews very high either...maybe mid-60's (especially closer to coast). Better look at something other than GFS. It’s a soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Better look at something other than GFS. It’s a soaker The euro isn't as far west as it had been with the boundary either. Huge differences too with ulvl low to our West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The euro isn't as far west as it had been with the boundary either. Huge differences too with ulvl low to our West. Look at EPS. It is a soaker and muggy with spinner potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 https://mobile.twitter.com/JakeCarstens/status/1421494130706993154/photo/1 like the graphic ^ and then Ventrice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 Yeah GFS is a non event. I dunno, maybe it's more of a ORH-BDL on SE thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Look at EPS. It is a soaker and muggy with spinner potential 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah GFS is a non event. I dunno, maybe it's more of a ORH-BDL on SE thing? I'm leaning more towards a few narrow areas of heavy rainfall but not a region-wide event. May see one or two axis of heavy rain. I guess the euro does support chance for strong storms Friday but pretty big differences between euro/gfs right now on how everything evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 Something I don't like about a 'big heat' signal out of this outlook period in question. I mentioned three factors yesterday that are still in play imho - It helps that the GFS is 10% some -odd trended in favor I suppose, but it's flatter overall still. The Euro tends to over-amplify everything through some magnifying lens ... roughly D5-7 ... It tends to take whatever it is handling around D3.5 and 4.5 ... 5, and just arbitrarily applies some 20+% audacity to the charts. Suddenly a flat ridge novas a bit... Or a weak impulse up over N Manitoba circa D3 ... deriving power from the unknown ( here we go again), if the base-line pattern is even slightly +PNAP mode the Euro somehow torques the entire hemisphere around a defining R-wave event, calving out a core closed cyclone down 5 contours beneath history over Maine three days later... zaggeratin' to make the point. It's modest at times ..but the operational version does tend to "wash" the charts at the temporal seam where mid range fades to the extended. It could be basing out the flow too far in the west on D6 as it applies its 'cleaning,' ..and that concomitantly sends heights and 850s and everything ballooning over eastern America. Not sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 Wiz' ... I think we're too focused ( friendly criticism ) wrt detailing aspects ...looking and depending and reliant on details that are pretty equally probabilistic to set up, more or less, in either direction, for D4- 7 I think the general circulation mode suggest thunder chance, and we can worry about whether details will formulate in/on time, as the overal period gets underway. If the overarching structure transpires, even say a 50/50 slop blend of the operational Euro/GFS ... I think you run the potential of MCS' in there. That's a west flow at 500 mb ( that is modestly faster than normal, too - ) over top a 700 mb WSW flow and an 850 mb SW flow. That is an inherently geostrophic unstable scenario where impossible-to-define located theta-e axis tend to situate, and probably MCS umbilical and feed off them as they conveyor along. I mean it's a general theme at least to me that seems supported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wiz' ... I think you're too focused ( friendly criticism ) with aspects ...looking and depending and reliant on details that are pretty equally probabilistic in either direction, for D4- 7 ... I think the general circulation mode suggest convection threats, and we can worry about whether details will formulate in/on time, as the overal period gets underway. If the overarching structure transpires, even say a 50/50 slop blend of the operational Euro/GFS ... I think you run the potential of MCS' in there. That's a west flow at 500 mb ( that is modestly faster than normal, too - ) over top a 700 mb WSW flow and an 850 mb SW flow. That is an inherently geostrophic unstable scenario where impossible-to-define located theta-e axis tend to situate, and probably MCS umbilical and feed off them as they conveyor along. I mean it's a general theme at least to me that seems supported. For Thurs - Sun period? I certainly agree with convective threats during that period and perhaps alot of the rain that occurs during this period if more convectively driven than synoptically...though they key word here being more...as there will be synoptic aid but I don't see it being enough to support heavy rains over a widespread area. The pattern moving into next week could certainly favor some MCS potential, especially northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 3 hours ago, dendrite said: Another 0.68” through the tipper and I was a local min. Gene had over an inch. Time to dry it out. There’s actually algae forming on the path down to the run and I slipped and fell on it this morning. Never fell on it when it was ice before. lol Ended up with 1.41". That is the biggest rainfall this summer. Our pond is now 1/2" filled. Usually it is dry by now. Unlike most of you I am happy for the 10" over the past month and cool weather. Gardens and lawn look amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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