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August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?


Damage In Tolland
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May not break into the sun until midday up here. It's warm and muggy until then (low was only 69.7F), but it won't start feeling truly nasty until this afternoon. Thu, Fri, and Sat will suck...no doubt about it. Maybe VT gets some afternoon COC working in on Saturday, but most of us will have to wait until Sunday for a noticeable difference.

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

May not break into the sun until midday up here. It's warm and muggy until then (low was only 69.7F), but it won't start feeling truly nasty until this afternoon. Thu, Fri, and Sat will suck...no doubt about it. Maybe VT gets some afternoon COC working in on Saturday, but most of us will have to wait until Sunday for a noticeable difference.

 

TheDogIsMelting.jpg

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It is interesting that this is occurring despite the flow construct over North America. Personally I am not sure I have ever seen that/this... 

With a -3 SD, full-on R-wave anomaly rolling through mid latitudes of the Canadian shield, supplanting the flow into a broad trough actually [ not the 'ridged curvature' more typical at these sort of hydrostatic heights and 850s/EML type phenomenon ] between IA-ME. The southern edge of this L/W trough arc is actually expressing the 590 ( 590! ) into cyclonic curvature.  That's strange.  The EML remnant Sonoran release and the 850 mb kinetic plume are all passing under the trough like a submarine. 

I suggest this is an expanded HC example with a polar R-wave ( unusually amplified ) gliding over top the 40th latitude.  Welcome to Tennessee ...

The Euro operational was indicating this potential some 7 or 8 days ago. I thought it was typically attempting to offset a heat wave pattern with it's own modeling bias to amp - the two sort of situated in conflict when at the time/range it was depicting. 

Technically it may be arguable ... it could be a compressed ridge, but said polar westerlies, in which case it could be considered in both directions to be fair. But it's an unusual look. 

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I'm in Michigan this week...  We were 91 here southern lower Michigan yeserday, with 76 dps, and it was brutal until a splash-out linear complex weakened through but ( thankfully ) brought us out of Hades. It was close to 9 pm and 86/77.  72/66 after the trees swayed  ahh

This is your air mass... coming on a WSW/SW trajectory, and you may or may not benefit from the latter processing.    

I suspect it ends up being about similar to the June heat wave between the 25th and 30th looking at everything. This one actually has better lower tropospheric parameters by a little even; if up to that alone I'd figure for a 2 click MOS bust and 102.  But that one benefitted from being within solar max, which we are passed. That, and hydro integration my keep the temp edged in favor of climo/MOS.  If this was June 15 I'd say y'all be 102 tomorrow or Friday at least at one or two sites.  Don't know about only 'warm' sun and dice rolling cloud patches in huge theta-e. 

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52 minutes ago, mreaves said:

78.2°/70.8° OMG! What a scorcher! I can't believe this is happening! Oh wait (checks calendar) it's August, and its not unusual to have HHH weather during this time of year. 

Had 0.20" rain early this morning and I was afraid if the sun came out all that would do is juice the low levels more.  Still damp out there.

Had more clouds than expected and you can tell from BTV's AFD they are a little concerned on the clouds and temps running 3-5 behind guidance.  It's really not bad out there without sun.

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