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August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?


Damage In Tolland
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On 7/28/2021 at 7:22 PM, Ginx snewx said:

The only reason the dews come up is because it's cloudy and rainy. You would think after all these years he would understand.  I mean it's tough to get rain at 70 degrees with a DP of 55. Same thing happened most of July cloudy rainy 70s. Most 70s in decades. I will remember July as a cloudy rainy cool month ending with big COC

Certainly nothing impressive with dews coming this week...probably get back into the 60's mid-to-late week but even then maybe only lower 60's. Not much in the way of heat either...we probably just get back to seasonal levels but not much more than that. Huge questions of how far west that stalled boundary pushes so we're probably looking at the difference between ~80 with dews in the upper 50's and lower 80's and dews in the lower 60's with chances for showers/thunder. I suppose though the risk for some heavy rain can't be ruled out...maybe not widespread.

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly nothing impressive with dews coming this week...probably get back into the 60's mid-to-late week but even then maybe only lower 60's. Not much in the way of heat either...we probably just get back to seasonal levels but not much more than that. Huge questions of how far west that stalled boundary pushes so we're probably looking at the difference between ~80 with dews in the upper 50's and lower 80's and dews in the lower 60's with chances for showers/thunder. I suppose though the risk for some heavy rain can't be ruled out...maybe not widespread.

From Wednesday onward it’s dews 65-70 and training rains along stalled boundary over us . Especially by Friday is when it really gets soupy with dews 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

From Wednesday onward it’s dews 65-70 and training rains along stalled boundary over us . Especially by Friday is when it really gets soupy with dews 

the boundary (as modeled now) is off to our east. And if you get any low pressure development along it (which is very likely) and that boundary is east...we could get a crap day of northeasterly flow. maybe coast gets 65+ dews.

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19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

the boundary (as modeled now) is off to our east. And if you get any low pressure development along it (which is very likely) and that boundary is east...we could get a crap day of northeasterly flow. maybe coast gets 65+ dews.

Persistent upper level trough that has dominated over the Northeast
US will gradually migrate westward, allowing for the Bermuda High to
build back westward. Nonetheless, with a predominantly meridional
flow, meteograms from global ensemble guidance suggest that most
days would feature rather seasonable temperatures (upper 70s to low
80s) with no strong signal for big warmups. Of course, if we were
able to get a more zonal component on one of these days, we could
pop into the mid to upper 80s but it is nearly impossible to
determine which day could feature summer heat. In addition, with the
meridional flow comes higher dew points and the risk for training
storms (and potential flooding concerns) along the areas of
convergence. This would suggest near normal to above normal
precipitation especially towards our western zones
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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:
Persistent upper level trough that has dominated over the Northeast
US will gradually migrate westward, allowing for the Bermuda High to
build back westward. Nonetheless, with a predominantly meridional
flow, meteograms from global ensemble guidance suggest that most
days would feature rather seasonable temperatures (upper 70s to low
80s) with no strong signal for big warmups. Of course, if we were
able to get a more zonal component on one of these days, we could
pop into the mid to upper 80s but it is nearly impossible to
determine which day could feature summer heat. In addition, with the
meridional flow comes higher dew points and the risk for training
storms (and potential flooding concerns) along the areas of
convergence. This would suggest near normal to above normal
precipitation especially towards our western zones

Heavy rain/flooding potential is absolutely on the table. 

Getting dews 65-70+ is going to be a bit difficult as modeled, especially since the models keep the highest theta-e offshore. I would also really like to see a more widespread area of 850 dews ~14C for dews to be that high as that would indicate sufficient low-level moisture. I can see dews getting into the 60's and mid-60's along the coast (maybe upper 60's along the immediate coast). Maybe Saturday could crank up the humidity 

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20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_fh96-240.gif

This is different then what took place last June. 

This is both non-hydrostatic ridge highs over arching a lower tropospheric, western/SW heat ejection.   Sonoran release... 

We saw near historic heights in that regard in two distinct periods in June, and neither one had that kinetically charge air layer park into it. 

This time is trying to time that.  But we don't have quite as high as non-hydrostatic heights.  We are passing the solar max on Aug 8 ... first couple weeks aft it probably still gets redic hot ( obviously ..duh) but, it's not the same as getting it on July 10 say.  So, the summer's is kind of asshole for that.  LOL

It's always something to fu it up.  Either the heights are high enough, but the SW heat ejection isn't there. Or we get that but it ends up in a saturate warm sector with 80F DPs and little sun. 

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is different then what took place last June. 

This is both non-hydrostatic ridge highs over arching a lower tropospheric, western/SW heat ejection.   Sonoran release... 

We saw near historic heights in that regard in two distinct periods in June, and neither one had that kinetically charge air layer park into it. 

This time is trying to time that.  But we don't have quite as high as non-hydrostatic heights.  We are passing the solar max on Aug 8 ... first couple weeks aft it probably still gets redic hot ( obviously ..duh) but, it's not the same as getting it on July 10 say.  So, the summer's is kind of asshole for that.  LOL

It's always something to fu it up.  Either the heights are high enough, but the SW heat ejection isn't there. Or we get that but it ends up in a saturate warm sector with 80F DPs and little sun. 

I think everyone here would take the 80 dews over any high heat 

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is different then what took place last June. 

This is both non-hydrostatic ridge highs over arching a lower tropospheric, western/SW heat ejection.   Sonoran release... 

We saw near historic heights in that regard in two distinct periods in June, and neither one had that kinetically charge air layer park into it. 

This time is trying to time that.  But we don't have quite as high as non-hydrostatic heights.  We are passing the solar max on Aug 8 ... first couple weeks aft it probably still gets redic hot ( obviously ..duh) but, it's not the same as getting it on July 10 say.  So, the summer's is kind of asshole for that.  LOL

It's always something to fu it up.  Either the heights are high enough, but the SW heat ejection isn't there. Or we get that but it ends up in a saturate warm sector with 80F DPs and little sun. 

i want my 90 degree day count to hit 40 thx

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