Damage In Tolland Posted August 4, 2021 Author Share Posted August 4, 2021 55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll say jack zone is as far east as me and as far west as BDL. Maybe I am wrong and it's more Cape...but just my guess. I wouldn't mind some rain, but not 4". Grab a couple inches and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Grab a couple inches and run Cuomo? 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 4, 2021 Author Share Posted August 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 See my Cat 1 1/3 is on the way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 It's back baby!!!! EML time. It's happening. We're getting an EML and a high end severe weather event before the 20th. IT'S FREAKING HAPPENING 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 I haven't been completely sold on this even taking place - not as heavy as the NAM. The longer sermon version of this scenario would describe a situation that has morphed from a retro warm boundary, to an actual albeit rather anachronistic sort of coastal low. The prior renditions by the NAM weren't coastal lows - they were convective feed-back phantoms, evidenced by the fact that every cycle of the model had different foci. However, present sat/rad and at least one global model argues for the better synoptic forcing, and the consensus with the Euro adds to that. It's weak, but still having extraordinarily rich PWAT atmosphere. Blah blah no one'll read it anyway ... rains hugely more than a cyclone this paltry typically does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 So we rain again.. mostly a snoozer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 28 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: So we rain again.. mostly a snoozer? No, its those new, fangled, exciting type of rain drops this time. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 3K NAM all on its own with how far west it brings the rain, except maybe the 0z EURO. All other models focus the rain east of HVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 4, 2021 Author Share Posted August 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: 3K NAM all on its own with how far west it brings the rain, except maybe the 0z EURO. All other models focus the rain east of HVN. It’s more right than wrong. Matches HREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 It's all going to come down to how organized of a low pressure we get. If we get a well-organized, mature low we will see the axis of heavy rain not only shift west but encompass a larger area. If we see a weak low (with multiple lows) which is strung out...the axis of heavy rain is east and quite narrow and tied more into where the core of the LLJ traverses and strongest llvl forcing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 …and then time to watch the invests in the Atlantic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Stein working his magic on the 12z NAM. 3km NAM is nuts for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: 3K NAM all on its own with how far west it brings the rain, except maybe the 0z EURO. All other models focus the rain east of HVN. Kind of tough to go against the Euro at this range - this intonation may not be 'meant' but it doesn't seem to respect the Euro? It's okay, to each his own. But the Euro, contrary to meme and music therein, is a superior guidance technology at this range so disregards at one's own risk I suppose. Doesn't mean it will be right - no. But it's a risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's all going to come down to how organized of a low pressure we get. If we get a well-organized, mature low we will see the axis of heavy rain not only shift west but encompass a larger area. If we see a weak low (with multiple lows) which is strung out...the axis of heavy rain is east and quite narrow and tied more into where the core of the LLJ traverses and strongest llvl forcing. yeah ... tend to agree here. I opined and was ignore myself just an hour ago, how the Euro and now-cast (sat/rad/obs..) combined seemed to argue a slightly more evolved cyclogen. Albeit weak, ... the PWAT is exceptional. Like ... don't need a blow torch to ignite a nitro, just a subtle match'll do the trick. BOOM... choke rain off a butterfly fart. This latter metaphor is a lot of 'what this comes down to' just as well. I mean, where it rains as a result of lopping upper bound physical PWAT amounts over weak triggers, will make people think the Canary Islands went ahead a bifurcating sending a 1500' tsunamis clear to the Berkshire 'new coast' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 22 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: …and then time to watch the invests in the Atlantic sail into Nova Scotia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah ... tend to agree here. I opined and was ignore myself just an hour ago, how the Euro and now-cast (sat/rad/obs..) combined seemed to argue a slightly more evolved cyclogen. Albeit weak, ... the PWAT is exceptional. Like ... don't need a blow torch to ignite a nitro, just a subtle match'll do the trick. BOOM... choke rain off a butterfly fart. This latter metaphor is a lot of 'what this comes down to' just as well. I mean, where it rains as a result of lopping upper bound physical PWAT amounts over weak triggers, will make people think it's the Canary Islands went ahead a bifurcating sending a 1500' tsunamis clear to the Berkshire 'new coast' IMO, it's not a matter of models being "west vs. east" it's how they are handling the evolution/development of a low pressure. I have been wanting to slide more towards a more evolved cyclone as well. Upper-level dynamics certainly support this with plenty of upper-level divergence over the region And you're starting to see some mid-level frontogenesis (albeit weak) present which certainly indications a strengthening cyclone mesoanalysis also has a broad low just off the Carolina coast. Nothing crazy evident on water vapor/satellite but there is definitely some circulation there and it's evident by the convective growth within that area. I think these ulvl dynamics are going to try real hard to get a more mature cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: sail into Nova Scotia Nova Scotia has been the new Florida last decade it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 This is a really tough forecast IMO. Models are literally Stein in one area and 5" in the same area. You can't split the difference either. It either floods in a narrow area, or nothing to maybe an inch. All guidance takes this stuff to our south, off to the east during today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 RGEM is Meh for most. Time to wrap this one up especially west of RI/Eastern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: RGEM is Meh for most. Time to wrap this one up especially west of RI/Eastern MA I buy that depiction…. Seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 4, 2021 Author Share Posted August 4, 2021 Take the NAM . It will do the best . Look at the leaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 This is super tough. Water vapor doesn't look terrible. Getting a nice defined area of convection just off the coast right around where the low center appears to be and that trough to the west, combined with the degree of ulvl divergence aloft...this could trend towards the more impressive side. Certainly can't rule out the axis of heaviest rain being as far west as HFD 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 40 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is super tough. Water vapor doesn't look terrible. Getting a nice defined area of convection just off the coast right around where the low center appears to be and that trough to the west, combined with the degree of ulvl divergence aloft...this could trend towards the more impressive side. Certainly can't rule out the axis of heaviest rain being as far west as HFD Squeeze my lemon til the juice runs down my leg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Now that I dropped some fert, lock in a Stein. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, its those new, fangled, exciting type of rain drops this time. i mean no wind, tor, snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 EURO is 1-3 inches most of it New London on east. A nothing burger west of HVN. As others have said thank god this isn’t a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Saved by Stein in the last 12hrs. Welcome back buddy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Cuomo? you have come out of nowhere to be a ... for the Post of The Year Award! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 39 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: EURO is 1-3 inches most of it New London on east. A nothing burger west of HVN. As others have said thank god this isn’t a winter storm. we would have gone from heartbreak to Jan 25, 2000 style comeback back to heartbreak.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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