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August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?


Damage In Tolland
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The challenge for this forecast is where the axis of heavy
rainfall will set up which will be dependent on the boundary
location. Global and hi-res guidance offer differing solutions
so forecast confidence is lower than what is ideal at this time
range. Consensus of the guidance favors the I-95 corridor
including BOS and PVD for axis of heaviest rainfall but the
ECMWF is further west into CT and central MA while HRRR and hi-
res RGEM are further east and focused more across SE MA and Cape
Cod. We leaned toward the HREF LPMM which targeted the I-95
corridor into eastern MA which is also closer to the low level
jet and PWAT axis so we issued a flash flood watch for RI and
eastern MA where confidence is highest at this time. However,
the axis of heavy rainfall may still shift to east or west given
envelope of deterministic and ensemble solutions
Wherever it sets up it looks like ass.
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