August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?

[weatherwiz]

Another tropical system strengthening before landfall...shocker 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

First time since mid May of it being dark wire to wire on morning run. Absolutely blows 

That's because you run in the middle of the night -   duh...    

[Typhoon Tip]

Ah yes ... post August 15.  The perennial onset of this species of Global Forecast System's proclivity to rush seasonal change can already be seen, if not so much empirically, by attitude in the way it is handling the polar jet and the features above the latitude of that fluid demarcation between the HC and Ferrel latitudes.

That being, too deep with cold layout and individual cyclone mid and U/A nodes that are rotating through the medium to be more precise.  

But, the irony is there is a tendency for enhancing gradient in transition seasons, during this leg of the climate change curve, due to the polar regions having still substantively lower geopotential mass-field compared to the encroaching HC; that encroachment causes the sloped troposphere ... triggering high velocity and earlier than normal climate R-wave structures result. 

That's all language to describe that while the latter aspect is causing seasonal variance to kick in sooner than mid last Century climate, the GFS probably coincidentally has an error that maps over top of it ( perhaps even hiding it's flaw from its designers - haha). 

As an aside: One of the counter-intuitive gems about global warming is that N/A then suffers cold loading earlier than normal, before the gradient really kicks in later on in mid winter season, which f's up all seasonal outlooks because no one is/has been paying attention this change.   

Here's a seasonal outlook that is probably all we will need, despite the dissertations, ...replete with chin scratching, temple rubbing, graphs and inference from land-sea telecon methods that are no longer valid because of CC:

Weird oscillating cool to hot snaps with frost during the cold during Sept(Oct), with almost just as many 80s in Sept(Oct) ... By October, packing pellets and grauple showers when cold.  So basically... 10 Indian summers between Sept 15 and November 1.   Chances are enhanced some 30 to 40% above the climate derivatives from October 15 to Dec 1, for synoptic snow. And probably we see 70s in November a couple of times regardless of whether that happens.  That's the autumn ball game... Basically, the typology of autumn variance on steroids.

Winter, doesn't exist.  Rather, some weird mangled version of winter that is too oft utterly disrupted, so not really clearly committed. Nope.  What we get is snow storms and rain storms, in between +20 events in temperature.  Lawns don't really turn that typical mid winter beige, and some commiserate-seeking poster insults that he/she actually saw a mosquito bobby around their forearm keying the car door somewhere out in the burbs in late January, despite that 10F cold snap that did manage to occur before the snow to rain disappointment near the 10th.   Farmer's butt-sore Almanac.  Big blizzard in February gravity wells Worcester to 12" while Bedford and Scott get 40" and manage seasonal normalcy.    All this before it is 82F on February 17 thru the 23; instead of this alarming oddity occurring on just a single day .. three different seasons spanning the last five years, it will be the first time in history we put up +30 dailies for almost a f'n week...  Then, dice roll until the concomitant end of spring due to the seasonal repulsion -NAO flex that always happens when the sonically speeding polar jet relaxes just a little and there's like some kind of thermal tidal back draft at hemispheric scales that causes us to retard green up until mid May.  At which time is is 110 F in Spokane, and the Glen Canyon finally succumbs to the so-dubbed "Millennial Drought" and exposes its self, leaving the 710 foot arch dam a ghost remnant of some kind of influence ( hmm)  - an omen of the future of the Earth, without human presence.

The new method for seasonal outlook needs to be based up a hemisphere moving so fast that all other conventions become tertiary as forcing compared to that disruption.   Done and done.

[ineedsnow]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

First time since mid May of it being dark wire to wire on morning run. Absolutely blows 

Its coming!

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah yes ... post August 15.  The perennial onset of this species of Global Forecast System's proclivity to rush seasonal change can already be seen, if not so much empirically, by attitude in the way it is handling the polar jet and the features above the latitude of that fluid demarcation between the HC and Ferrel latitudes.

That being, too deep with cold layout and individual cyclone mid and U/A nodes that are rotating through the medium to be more precise.  

But, the irony is there is a tendency for enhancing gradient in transition seasons, during this leg of the climate change curve, due to the polar regions have still substantively lower geopotential mass-field compared to the encroaching HC, to cause the sloped troposphere ... triggering high velocity and earlier than normal climate R-wave structures result. 

That's all language to describe that yeah ....the latter aspect cause seasonal variance to kick in sooner than mid last Century climate.  One of the counter-intuitive gems about global warming is that N/A then suffers cold loading earlier than normal, before the gradient really kicks in mid season and f's up all seasonal outlooks because no one is paying attention this change.   

Here's a seasonal outlook that is probably all we will need, despite the dissertations, ...replete with chin scratching, temple rubbing, graphs and inference from land-sea telecon methods that are no longer valid because of CC:

Weird oscillating cool to hot snaps with frost on the cold in Sept(Oct), and 80s in Sept(Oct) ... the latter of which probably has packing pellet grauple showers when cold.  So basically... 10 Indian summers between Sept 15 and November 1.   Chances are enhanced some 30 to 40% above the climate derivatives from October 15 to Dec 1, for synoptic snow. And probably we see 70s in November a couple of times regardless of whether that happens.  That's autumn ball game...

Winter, doesn't exist.  Some weird mangled winter at times that is utterly disrupted, so not really clearly committed. Nope.  What we get is snow storms and rain storms, in between +20 events in temperature.  Lawns don't really turn that typical mid winter beige, and someone post that they saw a mosquito bobby around their forearm keying the car door somewhere out in the burbs in late January, despite that 10F cold snap that did manage to occur before the snow to rain disappointment near the 10th.   Farmer's butt-sore Almanac.  Big blizzard in February gravity wells Worcester to 12" while Bedford and Scott get 40" and manage seasonal normalcy.    All this before it is 82F on February 17 thru the 23; instead of this occurring on day .. three different seasons spanning the last five years, it will be the first time in history we put up +30 for almost a f'n week...  Then, dice roll until the concomitant end of spring due to the seasonal repulsion -NAO flex that always happens when the sonic speed polar jet relaxes just a little and there's like some kind thermal tidal back draft at hemispheric scales the cause us to retard green up until mid May.

The new method for seasonal outlook needs to be based up a hemisphere moving so fast that all other conventions become tertiary as forcing compared to that disruption.   Done and done.

Completely agreed with your thoughts/assessments regarding seasonal outlooks. I know I've mentioned this a million times but there is jut way too much emphasis placed on ENSO and seasonal outlooks...way too much. At the end of the day, the sample set of ENSO events and how a season responds is just way too small. Now...this doesn't go to say ENSO state or ENSO evolution should not be considered or addressed...it most absolutely should be, however, it should not get the weight it gets. Obviously as sample size increases and we have more data/results to work with knowledge increases and we adjust based on results. With the small sample size this leads to a very large standard deviation. Long story short...there are going to be many different types of outcomes from various ENSO episodes we have never encountered b/c of the small sample set/large standard deviation. For example, remember for so many years some said we can't get KU's during La Nina's...and then we got like 3 of them in the span of a few weeks lol. 

Your last sentence there really ties everything together and explains it very well. There are just so many factors that we need to consider and even factors which there is very little research on. I also wonder how much attention this (NH summer) strong PV will get in seasonal outlooks. The PV is MEANT to strengthen as we move towards the NH winter but it's various processes which disrupt this strengthening. Does having an unseasonably strong PV leading into the winter favor a stronger PV which is more difficult to disrupt? Also, look at how much smoke has been emitted into the troposphere and I'm sure some has gotten into the stratosphere...just think of the volume. This most certainly has to alter atmospheric composition and maybe alter circulations, etc. 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like a possible hot stretch at some point this weekend into next week..perhaps just more next week...and then back likely broken based on what I see. And no, not because of climo....I mean the pattern. 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a possible hot stretch at some point this weekend into next week..perhaps just more next week...and then back likely broken based on what I see. And no, not because of climo....I mean the pattern. 

We've been seeing some pretty strong shortwaves traversing the U.S./Canadian border as of late and that looks to continue moving through the remainder of the month. Definitely should see some shots of cooler air...almost looks like a cross-polar type flow? 

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Completely agreed with your thoughts/assessments regarding seasonal outlooks. I know I've mentioned this a million times but there is jut way too much emphasis placed on ENSO and seasonal outlooks...way too much. At the end of the day, the sample set of ENSO events and how a season responds is just way too small. Now...this doesn't go to say ENSO state or ENSO evolution should not be considered or addressed...it most absolutely should be, however, it should not get the weight it gets. Obviously as sample size increases and we have more data/results to work with knowledge increases and we adjust based on results. With the small sample size this leads to a very large standard deviation. Long story short...there are going to be many different types of outcomes from various ENSO episodes we have never encountered b/c of the small sample set/large standard deviation. For example, remember for so many years some said we can't get KU's during La Nina's...and then we got like 3 of them in the span of a few weeks lol. 

Your last sentence there really ties everything together and explains it very well. There are just so many factors that we need to consider and even factors which there is very little research on. I also wonder how much attention this (NH summer) strong PV will get in seasonal outlooks. The PV is MEANT to strengthen as we move towards the NH winter but it's various processes which disrupt this strengthening. Does having an unseasonably strong PV leading into the winter favor a stronger PV which is more difficult to disrupt? Also, look at how much smoke has been emitted into the troposphere and I'm sure some has gotten into the stratosphere...just think of the volume. This most certainly has to alter atmospheric composition and maybe alter circulations, etc. 

yup... (bold)

Firstly, I am also being hyperbolic in jest to a goodly dosing in that - haha.  I'm about as cynical these days with the weather as I am with sociological impacts of the 7.5 billion assholes effectively influencing that force; but don't ask me to describe how I really feel.

Anyway, in more rational prose ... eh hm,  the ENSO may still be useful. But how much?  I suspect ( strongly ) that its ability to influence is being muted.

I wholeheartedly agree that it is too much in a lot of this stuff/practice.  The problem is just like I have said so often in the past but have since given up: The Hadley Cell is expanded and continues to do so

( primer of newbs:  5.2: Modes of Variability: Past and Projected Changes; 5.2.1 Width of the Tropics and Global Circulation; https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/ ). 

That expansion is not my idea. It is empirically observed and scienced everywhere except apparently in the readers of this forum, who btw seem more interested in playing fantasies of yore, as though climate's heredity is immovable and would rather make jokes about the former.   F.u. d-heads... Go vote Trump while your at it.   

But it has moved N and its envelope engulfs the latitudes of the previous climate ... before the hockey-sticking of jolt warming began in earnest around the time of that 'ceremonial beginning-of-the-end super NINO' of 1998 ( maybe James was onto something ).  This has happened while the polar domains still have enough lower geopotential heights that ... blah blah, flights from Japan to Frisco, or LGA to Hethro seem like a free ride.

The HC is subsuming and engulfing those. In fact, the HC is probably culpable in the enhanced easterly jet at lower latitudes that is also observed.  I am willing to posit that the new base-state is a modest La Nina when comparing/using previous climate -base as mode determination. ...interesting.  In that sense, this La Nina stuff we are measuring is actually more the new neutral. ...

It's interesting... there are Global systemic changes that are exceeding the single human life-time, and even within life-time events where/whence science has a chance to go through the scientific rigor.  By the time the observations made, the data is gathered, and the mechanics "precipitate"  ( always intend to annoy with puns ... ) out, the system has moved on to another state.  Or, it is causing some events to take place that redirect attention...etc... It's basically as though we are in a slow-moving climate bomb that has detonated already.

But my point and hypothesis is/was going to be, when the HC began to expand beyond where the MJO and the ENSO and the MEI used to interface/gradient against the westerlies, that changes the physics in how those fields can force the wave mechanics.  If one cannot get their heads around that, they should just watch the weather channel instead.

Then, yeah...I suppose increasing conflagration at global scales .. uh, fires... solar cycles in the 'super min' ... jesus.   We are supposed to be a Arctic, multi-decade oscillation that favors lowering modes.  But that becomes skewed and screwed up because the speeding hemisphere causes the AO to rise because it it is intrinsically/physically offsetting slower PV speeds and blocking. That's sort of a strong duh-hint to why we see the blocking waiting to March/April - maybe. ... 

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a possible hot stretch at some point this weekend into next week..perhaps just more next week...and then back likely broken based on what I see. And no, not because of climo....I mean the pattern. 

Broke back Mastiff

[weathafella]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Broke back Mastiff

Poor doggie!

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Broke back Mastiff

Obviously they'll be warm, humid days....but it doesn't look like a big WAR type deal to keep it super hot. At least right now.

[Cyclone-68]

Nothing exciting is going to happen this month is it?

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup... (bold)

Firstly, I am also being hyperbolic in jest to a goodly dosing in that - haha.  I'm about as cynical these days with the weather as I am with sociological impacts of the 7.5 billion assholes effectively influencing that force; but don't ask me to describe how I really feel.

Anyway, in more rational prose ... eh hm,  the ENSO may still be useful. But how much?  I suspect ( strongly ) that its ability to influence is being muted.

I wholeheartedly agree that it is too much in a lot of this stuff/practice.  The problem is just like I have said so often in the past but have since given up: The Hadley Cell is expanded and continues to do so

( primer of newbs:  5.2: Modes of Variability: Past and Projected Changes; 5.2.1 Width of the Tropics and Global Circulation; https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/ ). 

That expansion is not my idea. It is empirically observed and scienced everywhere except apparently in the readers of this forum, who btw seem more interested in playing fantasies of yore, as though climate's heredity is immovable and would rather make jokes about the former.   F.u. d-heads... Go vote Trump while your at it.   

But it has moved N and its envelope engulfs the latitudes of the previous climate ... before the hockey-sticking of jolt warming began in earnest around the time of that 'ceremonial super NINO' of 1998.  This has happened while the polar domains still have enough lower geopotential heights that ... blah blah, flights from Japan to Frisco, or LGA to Hethro seem like a free ride.

The HC is subsuming and engulfing those. In fact, the HC is probably culpable in the enhanced easterly jet at lower latitudes that is also observed.

It's interesting... there are Global systemic changes that are exceeding the single human life-time, and even within life-time events where/whence science has a chance to go through the scientific rigor.  By the time the observations made, the data is gathered, and the mechanics "precipitate"  ( always intend to annoy with puns ... ) out, the system has moved on to another state.  Or, it is causing some events to take place that redirect attention...etc... It's basically as though we are in a slow-moving climate bomb that has detonated already.

But my point and hypothesis is/was going to be, when the HC began to expand beyond where the MJO and the ENSO and the MEI used to interface/gradient against the westerlies, that changes the physics in how those fields can force the wave mechanics.  If one cannot get their heads around that, they should just watch the weather channel instead.

Then, yeah...I suppose increasing conflagration at global scales .. uh, fires... solar cycles in the 'super min' ... jesus.   We are supposed to be a Arctic, multi-decade oscillation that favors lowering modes.  But that becomes skewed and screwed up because the speeding hemisphere causes the AO to rise because it it is intrinsically/physically offsetting slower PV speeds and blocking. That's sort of a strong duh-hint to why we see the blocking waiting to March/April - maybe. ... 

I have great interest in the idea of Hadley Cell expansion and would love to do some research on it. I'm just super limited with time and I really wish I knew how to code/program...it would make life so much easier. 

ENSO seems to be so popular because it's easy to draw a connection or correlation. Here is a La Nina winter and here is the [insert temperature, precipitation, H5 anomaly] map. The problem I think too is everything gets averaged. For example, grouping of the seasonal months together. I mean I guess if you're looking for average that's what you want to do...but how much value do you really get from that? What is the true value. it doesn't tell you anything about pattern changes or small-scale perturbations which are actually MORE important. 

Here's an example...I've attached two images. They each show DJF temperature anomalies ( used 1951-2010 average to account for recent warming) for each La Nina episode. At the bottom of the second image is the "average" of all these episodes. As you can see, just assessing all episodes averaged together really tells you nothing when assessing each episode on an individual basis. What you could decipher I suppose is you're more than likely to feature abve-average temps in the east, below in the west...but as you can see by what would be a large standard deviation...the spread on that is huge.

 

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I've been really noticing it too getting up a bit before 530. I loathe losing the light in the morning.

51F this morning. Would prefer 5-10F warmer.

Yeah I notice it more in the evenings now… can’t start a hike at like 7pm anymore with twilight well past 9.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I have great interest in the idea of Hadley Cell expansion - " I know you do; you've discussed in the past.  Target was consensus " - and would love to do some research on it. I'm just super limited with time and I really wish I knew how to code/program...it would make life so much easier.  

-- " So does humanity in both time and method... I hinted in my (snark+prose)/2 reply there, environmental changes are occurring faster than we can institutionally codify the attribution/causalities via the scientific process. In fact that reminds me... I wrote an opine into the climate forum's 'Thoughts on ...' started by Don S. about this very subject of The Momentum Dilemma, and why the conclusion really smacks and feels like it is too late.  There is too much ballast NOT moving in restorative methods and by the time we get humanity doing so, we're ..probably over thresholds and seeing societal collapses... but that's getting off topic - "

ENSO seems to be so popular because it's easy to draw a connection or correlation. Here is a La Nina winter and here is the [insert temperature, precipitation, H5 anomaly] map. The problem I think too is everything gets averaged. For example, grouping of the seasonal months together. I mean I guess if you're looking for average that's what you want to do...but how much value do you really get from that? What is the true value. it doesn't tell you anything about pattern changes or small-scale perturbations which are actually MORE important. 

Here's an example...I've attached two images. They each show DJF temperature anomalies ( used 1951-2010 average to account for recent warming) for each La Nina episode. At the bottom of the second image is the "average" of all these episodes. As you can see, just assessing all episodes averaged together really tells you nothing when assessing each episode on an individual basis. What you could decipher I suppose is you're more than likely to feature abve-average temps in the east, below in the west...but as you can see by what would be a large standard deviation...the spread on that is huge.

....

 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Obviously they'll be warm, humid days....but it doesn't look like a big WAR type deal to keep it super hot. At least right now.

ACATT thinking fall weather ATT lol 

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

ACATT thinking fall weather ATT lol 

What day this week is your 88/76?

[CoastalWx]

May need to watch where Fred tracks for heavy rain, maybe iso tor? Although, mostly rain issue. Dews will be oppressive south of the track, but the track may be over SNE.

[rimetree]

52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

I'm curious what you think of the notion that flow will actually start to slow down with CC (less variance in temps between the pole and equator). Are these two completely separate domains or would they come in conflict at some point?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just looking for cooler evenings so I can do my front lawn reno.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

May need to watch where Fred tracks for heavy rain, maybe iso tor? Although, mostly rain issue. Dews will be oppressive south of the track, but the track may be over SNE.

I'm actually shocked there is no marginal in place for some area of the Southeast into the mid-Atlantic for tomorrow. 

Certainly could be a low prob risk for a tor where the remnants track. Probably be a situation too where it just happens from a meh looking convective shower that feeds off of just enough llvl CAPE/shear. Doubt we see much lightning with anything...going to be pretty capped given how warm it is aloft. 

 

[ma blizzard]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What day this week is your 88/76?

Wednesday might be close .. torch spots prob max in the MU 80s and low 70s dews 

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a possible hot stretch at some point this weekend into next week..perhaps just more next week...and then back likely broken based on what I see. And no, not because of climo....I mean the pattern. 

i could have sworn that we were told HHH due to WAR right through Labor day?

[Damage In Tolland]

46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What day this week is your 88/76?

Friday /Sunday 

[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

May need to watch where Fred tracks for heavy rain, maybe iso tor? Although, mostly rain issue. Dews will be oppressive south of the track, but the track may be over SNE.

Looks like he rides up over ALB to Freak 

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

Wednesday might be close .. torch spots prob max in the MU 80s and low 70s dews 

Let him go. Dude thinks a cool wet week and no warmth or dew and fall weather with wood smoke and pumpkin spiced Cheerios is coming 

[Bostonseminole]

Looks like I might have been right on no more 90's at least into late August.. maybe one more shot on Saturday?

[weatherwiz]

Friday should see dewpoints 75+. Probably see some areas even get 78-80. PWATS going to be through the roof...would wager we could be looking at daily records possible but that's just a guess. 

[weatherwiz]

Looks like daily max for OKX 12z on Aug 20 is 2.09''...they may very well break that 

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX doesn’t have me over 80F for the next week.  I doubt that verifies but…