August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

Sky has cleared-time for summer.   Time to enjoy August.

Froggy

[Ginx snewx]

AC on for the first time in ten days, thats totally impressive for the last week of July and first week of August.  My wallet thanks you Momma nature. Looks like a week of AC before once again the persistent pattern of heat dews to BN wet changes. Quite a run since July 1 of this pattern. 

[CoastalWx]

That's an AN look at the surface with humidity though. Still 570 and above thickness on the mean. It might get more wet as some signs of a front neat the east coast.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's an AN look at the surface with humidity though. Still 570 and above thickness on the mean. It might get more wet as some signs of a front neat the east coast.

It’s a very humid look where AC units are running right into and thru Labor Day . Also opens up the door for canes up here 

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's an AN look at the surface with humidity though. Still 570 and above thickness on the mean. It might get more wet as some signs of a front neat the east coast.

EPS looks normal to BN. Wet cloudy pattern persistence.  

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a very humid look where AC units are running right into and thru Labor Day . Also opens up the door for canes up here 

Let me know the last time a cane came up with that 5h look with strong SW flow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Let me know the last time a cane came up with that 5h look with strong SW flow. 

1985

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1985

Gloria, right? I remember playing in our cul-de-sal watching the remnants of the eye pass over

[Typhoon Tip]

wow...different universe of weather this morning.

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS looks normal to BN. Wet cloudy pattern persistence.  

Charts! I’m just saying how that looks to me. If the mean is right, take em up a bit. But verbatim last few days on EPS may be cooler.

[radarman]

probably a nice undercast view from the east slope this morning, because here in the valley we OVC

[CoastalWx]

Finally not a cloud in the sky. Everything soaked and windows fogged up. The dews are back. 

[Ginx snewx]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1985

Lol

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Charts! I’m just saying how that looks to me. If the mean is right, take em up a bit. But verbatim last few days on EPS may be cooler.

EPO tanking and PNA rising will put a damper on the heat. By then Kevin's summer is almost over. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Enjoy these days while they're here.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That's an AN look at the surface with humidity though. Still 570 and above thickness on the mean. It might get more wet as some signs of a front neat the east coast.

Looks like there is a pretty weak stationary boundary that resides nearby much of next week. Actually could see lots of clouds and pop up afternoon storms. May hold some spots at 90+ potential 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Back to dripping dews and pants stuck to cheeks

We enjoy 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Enjoy these days while they're here.

They’re here for an awfully long time modeling says. One of those endless summers it appears

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow...different universe of weather this morning.

Everyone is happy and posting summer vibes . When it’s cold and dry everyone irritable and bad moods

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Everyone is happy and posting summer vibes . When it’s cold and dry everyone irritable and bad moods

Yeah summer is back. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

They’re here for an awfully long time modeling says. One of those endless summers it appears

Let me know when Summer arrives for an extended period,  It's been on hiatus for for 30 days save for a couple days last month.

[Typhoon Tip]

Kinda both right from what I'm seeing from the Euro cluster - ... I see where Steve is coming from.  It's not just the look of it, the 'music' sort of wants to resolve the next measure into a nadir flow over the Lakes OV- NE axis. Seems we are establishing that as foundation rather early...  so we can snow by Halloween ..etc..etc.. That oughta earn me some likes from any web-handle with snow as a syllable.

No sooner did the consensus arrive all set and square and settled that we would in fact flip August back to AN, that models seemed to choose that moment to begin a warm-august cancel-culture campaign...  The EPS says the Euro has merit.  As such, by D10, the op. version wends the pattern right back into the unusual, rather robustly amplified +PNAP ...  

( look out Nevada, California perhaps up into Washington and Oregon for some dangerous heat again; and lookout the rest of the nation for smoke loading)

The GEFs, while obviously rolling eyes .. does not agree so much with that idea though.  Admittedly, it doesn't have persistence on its side. And I also have hypothesis as to why the Euro is doing this R-wave structured look at a time of the year when it is anachronistic.   ...which is HC related + heat dome forcing geostrophic bulge in the west...  forget it -

But here's the odd thing, despite that thematic arc, the Euor does first time a W. N/A heat ejection down stream during the D5-6-7 under a trough that is high in latitude.  It's like the heat is submarining the trough.

I see this in that guidance a lot, frankly. Never tested it, though. But sometimes it does this where it gets a big heat 850 kinetic layer caught under a trough saddle like that... It's interesting.  But, if so that's really a straight up heat wave this next Wed Thur and Fri, with the only preventative being cloud contamination.  +20C at 850 at 18z each of those days with WSW or SW flow well established and no antecedent wash of cool air to cause light-wind difficult to erode out inversion shit.

As an aside, I always felt some of those cool days in July benefited from that oddity.  The 850s were out of line with the llv results ...kind of used rain to cheat the month colder than the thermal state of the atmosphere much of the time.  Normal July sun would have been a mid 80s month. 

Anyway, that's just a nice solid heat wave look.  More clouds is 88/73 ... but climo on clouds in SWs flow typically ends up better than modeled ceiling RH so it's probably more like 92 to 94 as a conservative estimate those days. 

Tl;dr for a mundane topic, I know. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Let me know when Summer arrives for an extended period,  It's been on hiatus for for 30 days save for a couple days last month.

It’s here now right thru LDW

[weatherwiz]

The EML signal is fading. This is BS...such BS. Is it too much to ask to get just one high end severe weather event a summer??? Just one. I don't care about these stupid whistle blowing thunderstorms that knock down a rotted tree here and there. Is it really that hard to get an EML in here?? 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The EML signal is fading. This is BS...such BS. Is it too much to ask to get just one high end severe weather event a summer??? Just one. I don't care about these stupid whistle blowing thunderstorms that knock down a rotted tree here and there. Is it really that hard to get an EML in here?? 

C'mon ... you focused on a parametric some 300 light years from the visible horizon edge of the expanding Cosmos on that one .. There was no way that was going make it from a D12 outlook, that many days, without emergent reality intervening LOL.

you know that -

And yes, it is hard to get an EML here that isn't at mininum polluted by meshing the continental miasma into it, or processed by other convection first, or somehow sneaking through the devil's gate of the perennial N/A pattern, which features a NW tendency over the Lakes that shunts it south. 

These are like 'white men can't jump' for us ... But once in while, one comes long like that odd-ball guy from Canada.  And 1953 slam dunks. 

As an aside, it's why I think 1953 is probably the rarest return rate anomaly we've experienced since codifying N/A ( specifically ... New England) weather phenomenon into their respective OMG categories.   I bet you it is slightly more % in favor of seeing a Feb 1978 blizzard redux - in fact I'm certain of that.

You are in the wrong arena for the sport you like to play in  - I've said this to you a dozen times, I know

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

C'mon ... you focused on a parametric some 300 miles of hours out along the visible horizon of the Cosmos on that .. There was no way that was going make it from a D12 outlook that many days without reality intervening LOL.

you know that -

And yes, it is hard to get an EML here that isn't at mininum polluted by meshing the continental miasma into it, or processed by other convection first, or somehow sneaking through the devil's gate of the perennial N/A pattern, which features a NW tendency over the Lakes and that shunts it south. 

These are like 'white men can't jump' for us ... But once in while, one comes long like that odd-ball guy from Canada.  And 1953 slam dunks. 

Maybe I can just go to the upper-Midwest for a few days this week. I sniff derecho potential from MN/WI into MI.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Maybe I can just go to the upper-Midwest for a few days this week. I sniff derecho potential from MN/WI into MI.

 

This/that look's sort of been in the deck since last week's guidance.. yeah.  it's occasionally extended east ...  but hey!  I'm in Michigan next week    

See, I'm like George on "Steinfeld" - I give up looking and that's when the peregrinations of life seem to miraculously just put me in a position for it.  We'll see if she actually bites -

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Maybe I can just go to the upper-Midwest for a few days this week. I sniff derecho potential from MN/WI into MI.

 

You should do everything in your power to experience the weather you crave , it’s comical  to follow Southern New England EML disappointments 

[rimetree]

Headed to lake house today for a week or two depending on weather. Looks pretty good to start anyway and hoping the rain days are relatively few. I do like a good storm up there, especially at night.

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Enjoy these days while they're here.

sunset is approaching 8pm right now-very noticeable now...it's getting late early