Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2021 Author Share Posted August 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep, the smell of wood smoke in the air soon to be replaced by body odor and the smell of dog poo decomposing in the dews. Wet poop slips in lawns? Can’t wait to get this dry air Outta here 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 50.1F here for my low. Speaking of low, low chances of showers Weds night here. SE SNE should get a good drink 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 39 this morning, so it seems pretty safe to say that this year we'll have had 30s every month of the year. Go 2021! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 6z Euro further west with the rains 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 Ukie is west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2021 Author Share Posted August 3, 2021 We tried to tell em. WAR is undefeated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 Move it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 Will probably get a blob of convection that bends to the right, maybe even curves to the right as some say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yep, the smell of wood smoke in the air soon to be replaced by body odor and the smell of dog poo decomposing in the dews. I give it 7 to 10 days then we pattern change again. Dogs days be dog days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 EPS is wet too. Congrats to all who have no souls. 3 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 Anyone have details on what it would take to reach July-Aug (60 day) rainfall records in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2021 Author Share Posted August 3, 2021 41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I give it 7 to 10 days then we pattern change again. Dogs days be dog days Seems like it goes right into LD weekend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 NHC should have a lemon off the SE coast. Looks like a non-negligible chance at one of those last minute OBXer’s... Nah instead, what is most likely to happen —if something does get organized—is NHC throws up odds when we all already see a TD on vis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 shift all that east by a good 30-40 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 I'll take all your rain - much needed for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2021 Author Share Posted August 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: shift all that east by a good 30-40 miles Wagons west. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 NAM doing NAM things. Sunrise surprise potential? 65kt LLJ into SE MA. Phil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM doing NAM things. Sunrise surprise potential? 65kt LLJ into SE MA. Phil? Nasty squall line on 3km NAM. No trees left standing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 I’m skeptical of a huge area of rain like is being shown on some models. Could be haves and have nots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 2 hours ago, alex said: 39 this morning, so it seems pretty safe to say that this year we'll have had 30s every month of the year. Go 2021! Another mid-upper 40s morning here. 2007 was our most recent 30s-in-every-month year. In 1978 (Fort Kent) we had a frost in every month. 32° on 7/31 damaged my pumpkins and smoked the next door neighbor's beans. Then August had several frosts and a low of 28. Frost-free period of 44 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 NAM has an all out coastal storm rapidly materialize...some pretty impressive cyclogenesis. I mean I guess there is ulvl support for such a scenario to occur but it also looks like it is phasing energy with the ulvl to our west and s/w energy off the coast (associated with convection) and well maybe the NAM is a bit too overzealous in this instance. However, should a scenario like this evolve we could see two QPF maxes...one just NW of the low and the other tied into where the best dynamics/forcing occurs. 6z euro did seem to give the NAM some backing though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 Heading to Marco island in early October. Maybe the mighty gulf will summon up a tempest for my pleasure while I’m there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 Should add even the GFS has it to some degree. both NAM/GFS bufkit for EWR Thursday night increase winds out of the NNE 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Should add even the GFS has it to some degree. both NAM/GFS bufkit for EWR Thursday night increase winds out of the NNE 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 3K nam went well west of its 6z run as well. Even dumps on me here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 3K nam went well west of its 6z run as well. Even dumps on me here. I'm not so sure though it's a product of it being more west...I think it's more of how it evolves the low pressure. The 12z run has a much more mature surface low and is pretty much nearly perfect cyclogenesis. So I think the talk of models being "west vs east' is not necessarily correct...it's a matter of how the area of low pressure evolves. I am kinda torn on this. Looking at the ulvls the dynamics are quite impressive and support a great deal of ulvl divergence. However, given the stationary front it's more likely you'll see multiple areas of low pressure develop along it. Is it possible the NAM is going crazy with one specific shortwave or low? Very possible. Could it also be heavily influenced by convection? Possible. At this juncture I think I'd be less inclined to side with the NAM right now until there is additional (stronger) support. I would think one axis of very heavy rain tied right along where the best dynamics/forcing are...which is east of us. However, that ulvl jet structure is eye opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 NAM basically tries to go semi-tropical. It's possible..but looked like classic NAM gone wild when it tries to do that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAM basically tries to go semi-tropical. It's possible..but looked like classic NAM gone wild when it tries to do that. This is the only thing that has me intrigued to yield a potential solution like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM basically tries to go semi-tropical. It's possible..but looked like classic NAM gone wild when it tries to do that. Yup... it's been doing it on every run. spinning up little cyclone nodes on the warm retrograding front - pretty clearly diabatic garbage. But each one then positively feeds back and over rains/QPF...blah blah. It exhibited this exact same behavior at these same sort of time leads, when this very similar scenario of retro WAR pushing the boundary back took place in June. It didn't verify very well. just sayn' Also, the NAM is too cool on SE side of the post boundary environment, from PHL-BOS on Thursday imho. If the boundary washes out and is NW when that happens, the I-95 is probably 84/73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 I just want some rain. Everyone else was splashing around in puddles all July & my lawn is brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 It's too bad FSU ( c/o Dr Robert Hart ) doesn't carry the cyclone phase for the NAM solutions. It would be interesting ... I suspect the mid Atlantic spin up is a diabatic/latent heat release/grid scale feed back monster that would also show up as a quasi-symmetric warm core ( though edged in favor of subtropical of course...), but would be faux in the first place if the low doesn't really exist. The thing is ...the NAM solution is not IMpossible. The model doesn't ultimately assess solutions out in time that can't happen- wouldn't be much use as any kind of prognostic tool if that were the case. Although, LOL, the model doesn't much so for any time beyond 36 hours most of the time but that's another story of reasons. Anyway, with deterministic Met ...the objective forecaster considers all solutions. It's just that the acumen is in deciding which one's are probabilistically better seated, and then tabling the others in lieu of those solutions/blends. In this case, I tend to think that the NAM is wrong - but I could be. Haha. But, part of the reason is because it has a history of zealous W/neary coastal interface deepening. I keep thinking back to June when a very similar evolution took place. WAR pushing west, pushed an anticedent/vestigial front back NW, and the NAM kept running these low nodes/QPF bombs along it. None of which verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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