August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?

[Ginx snewx]

New Euro doesn't hit 80 degrees next ten days for elevated interior CT

[Damage In Tolland]

Beast mode WAR coming. Wow 

[forkyfork]

the real heat comes after the 7th imo

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah looks like a very long, hot stretch coming.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ryan brings dews and showers/ storms back in mid week next week . Starting Wednesday 

[powderfreak]

Definitely some disagreement with WAR.

[Damage In Tolland]

51 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Definitely some disagreement with WAR.

Poor GFS .. you guys def get a couple Coc k days.. but not the 7-10 you promised earlier today 

Through Midweek:

Monday does look dry with seasonable temperatures. Increasing
forecast uncertainty into Tue-Wed, as longwave trough axis settles
over the Ohio Valley/Deep South and an amplifying Bermuda
subtropical high. This sets up a feed of subtropical moisture on
deep-layer southwest flow, sourced from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico/western Atlantic. A stalled frontal boundary looks to lie
along the coastal mid-Atlantic/Carolinas that may focus several
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Differences in
placement and timing weak wave lows on the stalled frontal
boundary that may focus periods of stronger rain chances at this
point are too large to provide any level of predictability at
this range. Overall though, turning more unsettled and
increasingly more humid moving into midweek.

 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Poor GFS .. you guys def get a couple Coc k days.. but not the 7-10 you promised earlier today 

 

Started yesterday with mid-50s yesterday morning and should take us at least through next Wednesday.  Down south you probably get clipped sooner with increasing moisture mid-week.

NW flow remains across the region Friday night into Saturday with continued below normal temperatures expected. Low temperatures Friday night will average ~10 degrees below normal in the low 40s to low 50s. The overall pattern remains fairly active for the latter half of the weekend and into the early part of next week as another sharp trough swings through the Northeast. While Saturday looks to be dry, rain chances increase Sunday morning into Monday with the passage of this front. Another shot of cold air arrives Monday with below normal temperatures expected once again. &&

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Started yesterday with mid-50s yesterday morning and should take us at least through next Wednesday.  Down south you probably get clipped sooner with increasing moisture mid-week.

NW flow remains across the region Friday night into Saturday with continued below normal temperatures expected. Low temperatures Friday night will average ~10 degrees below normal in the low 40s to low 50s. The overall pattern remains fairly active for the latter half of the weekend and into the early part of next week as another sharp trough swings through the Northeast. While Saturday looks to be dry, rain chances increase Sunday morning into Monday with the passage of this front. Another shot of cold air arrives Monday with below normal temperatures expected once again. &&

Let’s see how these age ! 

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s see how these age ! 

You thinking torch by Tuesday?

EPS and GEFS are in agreement where it takes a while to warm 850mb temps above normal…. Late next week.  Maybe it changes, sure.

Day 5-9 mean on EPS.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You thinking torch by Tuesday?

EPS and GEFS are in agreement where it takes a while to warm 850mb temps above normal…. Late next week.  Maybe it changes, sure.

Day 5-9 mean on EPS.

No. I am thinking the pattern initially starts like July. Storms/ showers humid dews 65-70 ish by Wednesday. I think by that weekend it’s extended furnace . Just because a map shows blue does not mean Coc k and comfy 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No. I am thinking the pattern initially starts like July. Storms/ showers humid dews 65-70 ish by Wednesday. I think by that weekend it’s extended furnace . Just because a map shows blue does not mean Coc k and comfy 

Ok yeah you are more interested in the dew point than the actual temp.  We’ll see… maybe the ASOS’ climb that high by Wednesday.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Ok yeah you are more interested in the dew point than the actual temp.

I’ll ask you or others. Will you remember this  July as chilly ? Or will you remember it as stormy , humid and wet? Additionally.. how many nights were windows open and sweatshirts on around fire pits? 

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You thinking torch by Tuesday?

EPS and GEFS are in agreement where it takes a while to warm 850mb temps above normal…. Late next week.  Maybe it changes, sure.

Day 5-9 mean on EPS.

The only reason the dews come up is because it's cloudy and rainy. You would think after all these years he would understand.  I mean it's tough to get rain at 70 degrees with a DP of 55. Same thing happened most of July cloudy rainy 70s. Most 70s in decades. I will remember July as a cloudy rainy cool month ending with big COC

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll ask you or others. Will you remember this  July as chilly ? Or will you remember it as stormy , humid and wet? Additionally.. how many nights were windows open and sweatshirts on around fire pits? 

You didn't hit 90 in all of July ave temp only 68 and ave dew 64.

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll ask you or others. Will you remember this  July as chilly ? Or will you remember it as stormy , humid and wet? Additionally.. how many nights were windows open and sweatshirts on around fire pits? 

Well between our two locations will have quite a bit of difference.  The A/C was almost never on up here and windows open nightly.

July will not be remembered as being warm or hot, thats for certain.  Chilly, probably not but July isn’t a month that is chilly even below normal. Cool maybe?  Cool and damp?  But for sure it won’t be remembered as warm or deep summer.

The other thing is I do think the public believes it was a colder than normal July (it was, ha).  But the daytime highs were colder than normal a LOT and that’s going to lead to perception in the public.

Focusing on the nights is weird because in the winter we always talk about what people perceive when they are awake and out/about.  Same in summer, if it’s 72F for a high but 65F for a low, people are like it wasn’t hot today.  In the winter we get those above normal months that are perceived cold because daytimes were chilly.  

 

 

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The only reason the dews come up is because it's cloudy and rainy. You would think after all these years he would understand.  I mean it's tough to get rain at 70 degrees with a DP of 55. Same thing happened most of July cloudy rainy 70s. Most 70s in decades. I will remember July as a cloudy rainy cool month ending with big COC

Yeah I like that description.  Cool and wet.  Exactly how my dad described it too.  He doesn’t give a shit about the dew point, lol. What he remembers is that the highs were 60s and 70s a lot while it was raining.

Thats the public perception I’d wager too.  They remember all the highs in the 70s and damp, to them it’s “cool” for July because it’s not 85-90F for two weeks straight.  It can be cool, wet and humid all at the same time.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Beast mode WAR coming. Wow 

That 594 contour has been further north before with big WAR’s , I believe last year we had bouts when it was centered north of Bermuda 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Is that like a 88/72 pattern with that WAR toward August 8-9

Hopefully the tropics start popping that week based on the CCKW passage 

[Ginx snewx]

57 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That 594 contour has been further north before with big WAR’s , I believe last year we had bouts when it was centered north of Bermuda 

 

[forkyfork]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

You thinking torch by Tuesday?

EPS and GEFS are in agreement where it takes a while to warm 850mb temps above normal…. Late next week.  Maybe it changes, sure.

Day 5-9 mean on EPS.

the trend is your friend

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

the trend is your friend

Touche... sarcastic and solid evidence.

[Ginx snewx]

6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Touche... sarcastic and solid evidence.

Summah

[Ginx snewx]

6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Touche... sarcastic and solid evidence.

Brutal

[Ginx snewx]

Nice summer weekend cocadoodledewlessness 

[dendrite]

Weekend trended cooler. Midweek next week trended warmer...although the EPS was a little cooler than previous runs. Hopefully the warmth comes back so I can get the soil temps up. The last 4 weeks have been pretty dreary.

[Chrisrotary12]

Is August the month with two direct cane strikes or is that September?

[dendrite]

54 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is August the month with two direct cane strikes or is that September?

August. September had 3. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm curious what the GEFs 07/29, 00z computation re the PNA look like.  PNA is supposedly non or low correlative/confidence at this time of year, but it's hard to argue against the look of July 20 - Aug 2 ( aft and for') and how well that has/is matches up with the GEFs derived +PNA.  

Chances are, when it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck ... it's a duck. This pattern, aft and fro, fits nicely enough within prior PNA forecasts.  I have never seen this robust of both amplitude and concerted agreement in this PNA, entering early August - ever.

Supposition for those that like the pain of headaches:  I have been noticing this in recent summers actually ( to be honest ..) The PNA has been a bit more useful than the italic assumption above over recent summers - it's been consistent too.  I hypothesize why.. 

The speedier velocity rich hemisphere's we have been observing during the last 15 to 20 winters, is not entirely dispersing in summers.  It's relaxing, but not 'as much'.  In short .. relative to summer circulation climate we are still seeing somewhat elevated geopotential wind anomalies in/along the best perceived cores of the westerly jets.  [ enter data to support here that is not merely anecdotal lol ]

This enters wave mechanical arguments - easy ones at that.  Fast flow organizes wave structures more proficiently. The rest is academic; this reduction of entropy/off-set of normal summer nebular tendencies, is tending to manufacture/maintain R-wave structures. These structures are going to abide the same laws and behavior as they do in the winter/colder months.  "When," in this sense means nothing.  So, you tend to better definitive wave structures, the telecon's thus pop back to life (if not partly so).  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

This 00z ( last ..) did in fact back down the PNA (GEFs).  The apex of that curve shed a standard deviation... though still immense for this time of year.  But also, the end is opening up and descending to neutral now by week two.. 

I've also seen this sort of 'big error' interval occur before.  Even in winter, when they tend to be a bit more dependable ...etc etc.  My hunch is that we will see this thing flatten more over the next few days and perhaps a mean begin to represent the blend of the Euro/EPS mean.    I'd include the GFS ( because it happens to quasi agree at the moment) but that would mean I'd have to do so i the future, and I don't think the GFS is a good model.  NGFS is perhaps more apropos, as in No Good Forecast System.  Kidding some of course...

But it's consummate tendency to cumulatively lower heights on the polar side of the westerlies is easy to see when comparing to other models that routinely score better.  These lower-ish heights edging, gives it more velocity against the expanded warm heights of CC ... as though a fast hemisphere need more velocity?   It's insidious that way, because a fast hemisphere ( anyway ..) sorta hides the GFS bias.   It does seem to correct as it gets from D10 to 7 to 4 ... and so forth, perhaps adding to not being seen.  In reality, it's not a terrible model - no. But it's just not very good at detecting/hinting out there in time because that bias is damping stuff.