Cfa Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 It’s actually been rather dry here as of late, unlike areas further west. It’d be nice if that inch+ zone could shift further west, I could certainly use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, Cfa said: It’s actually been rather dry here as of late, unlike areas further west. It’d be nice if that inch+ zone could shift further west, I could certainly use it. Very dry here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: Very dry here Same here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 26 minutes ago, psv88 said: Same here. Back to the way summers typically are near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like Newark has a shot at 35 or more days reaching 90° this year. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 11 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 12 1955 32 0 - 1953 32 0 - 1943 32 0 13 2020 31 0 - 2011 31 0 - 1973 31 0 - 1952 31 0 14 1957 28 0 15 2021 27 150 - 2019 27 0 - 2006 27 0 - 1989 27 0 - 1980 27 0 - 1941 27 0 2021 has the 12th hottest temperature for Newark (tied seven other years) back on 6/30... Newarks hottest temps... 108 7/12/2011 105 9/2/1953 105 8/9/2001 105 7/10/1993 105 7/8/1993 105 7/4/1949 105 7/3/1966 104 7/18/2012 104 7/15/1995 104 7/9/1993 104 7/9/1936 103 6/30/2021+ previous years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 Tomorrow will be partly sunny and somewhat cooler than normal. Afterward, a warmer regime will try to develop. Next week could see the potential of a heat wave in parts of the region. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month. Next week could also see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -10.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.196 today. The preliminary Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern figure was +3.210. That exceeded the August monthly record of +3.160, which was set on August 1, 2009. On August 2 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.295 (RMM). The August 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.390 (RMM). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 some other years when the pna was at least +2 around this date... 8/4/2020...2.403 8/2/2018...2.203 8/8/2014...2.484 8/1/2009...3.160 8/2/1962...2.186 8/1/1960...1.999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/90), or +4. 69*(83%RH) here at 6am, overcast. While the idiotic GFS highs of yesterday are gone, the ENS. is still AN for the next 15 days straight. Rain is Normal to BN. GFS still can not coherently show any back-to-back runs with that potential tropical circulation, which first showed up on August 01 for one run and only sporadically since. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 23 hours ago, jm1220 said: These are consistently too hot. There won’t be 8 straight over 100 degree days in NYC. lol @ those temps.... subtract 10 degrees from them for a reality check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 22 hours ago, jm1220 said: Yep, trends are east this morning. Might just be the twin forks really. over a foot of snow for Montauk while we get a scattered flurry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 19 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: If it's gonna be hot I wanna see some records. Let's get widespread 100s next week. I would love that! we need to have a parade if it hits 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 On 8/3/2021 at 10:56 AM, bluewave said: The latest PNA forecast is even more extreme. The GEFS maxes out near a ridiculous +4. The highest ever in August was just +3.1. I think that this is why the models have such a sharp rainfall cutoff west of NYC. A piece of the Western heat comes east when the PNA begins to flatten later this week. isn't the High pushing in from the West causing the sharp rainfall cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 Looks like the coming warm up will be battling backdoor cold fronts. Notice how the weekend backdoor snuck up on the models. So we’ll have to see where the frontal boundary stalls out to know how warm the temperatures get here next week. I think the record +PNA is resulting in a stronger high over Canada this weekend. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 On 8/3/2021 at 3:34 PM, jm1220 said: It's west though from 0z. The WAR has something to say about this too. Probably a good soaking for especially the city and east upcoming. I've stopped liking the WAR it increases humidity but not actual heat. We need a nice big ridge from the West to give us a truly hot summer. I hope the WAR goes to the Azores on vacation for the rest of the summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 Next weeks forecast has temps in the 80s all week, where is the heat wave that has been talked about for the past two weeks? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 Morning thoughts… Western sections of the area will be mostly sunny while early clouds will give way to sunshine elsewhere in the region. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 85° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.1° Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 87.5° Tomorrow will turn much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Next weeks forecast has temps in the 80s all week, where is the heat wave that has been talked about for the past two weeks? Beautiful weather ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Next weeks forecast has temps in the 80s all week, where is the heat wave that has been talked about for the past two weeks? many times we see forecast highs increase as we get closer to the period. Upton is usually conservative 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 Humidity has been uncomfortable here on Long Island this summer but the actual temperatures have not been bad, pretty much normal the past few months. June was a little above and July a little below. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 Looks like we just set the new all-time positive PNA record. The previous highest was +3.328 on 7-2-82. These daily records are preliminary so we may have to wait for the CPC to post the official values at the end of the month. 05Aug2021 0.37339E+01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 Now that we are in the real hurricane season, things are getting a little busier with systems starting to come off Africa and across the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Humidity has been uncomfortable here on Long Island this summer but the actual temperatures have not been bad, pretty much normal the past few months. June was a little above and July a little below. The higher dew points have been the big story on Long Island so far this summer. Islip had the highest June average dew point on record with July finishing 6th highest. The June average temperature was 7th warmest while July only ranked 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The higher dew points have been the big story on Long Island so far this summer. Islip had the highest June average dew point on record with July finishing 6th highest. The June average temperature was 7th warmest while July only ranked 19th. it's annoying to have all this humidity and not the heat. Is the Atlantic more to blame or the Gulf of Mexico? I read that if we could remove the Gulf of Mexico or at the very least set up a high mountain range north of it (like the Himalayas are north of the Bay of Bengal), our summers would be much less humid and much nicer (meaning hot and dry). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Now that we are in the real hurricane season, things are getting a little busier with systems starting to come off Africa and across the Atlantic. let's get a CAT 3 to take the path of Isias last August. That would make things interesting around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 Wrt dry... First 9 days in July 6.74" Last 22 days in July 0.85" Past 25 days 1.05" How dry I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 Sorry...past 27 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 Drizzling here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: it's annoying to have all this humidity and not the heat. Is the Atlantic more to blame or the Gulf of Mexico? I read that if we could remove the Gulf of Mexico or at the very least set up a high mountain range north of it (like the Himalayas are north of the Bay of Bengal), our summers would be much less humid and much nicer (meaning hot and dry). I won’t go anymore OT but if there were a website that you could go to and experiment with different physical geographic parameters that would be a fascinating place for me to go spend my free time. Something like a climatic/meteorological sandbox. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The 12z Euro backed off on the heat for next week. It continues to correct stronger with the high pressure exiting New England. So we get into a humid SE flow. Not surprised, has been a theme this whole summer it seems. Take the under on the extended heat along the coast. Inland locations from C NJ on S&W look to roast for 5 days of 90+ though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 1 hour ago, HailMan06 said: I won’t go anymore OT but if there were a website that you could go to and experiment with different physical geographic parameters that would be a fascinating place for me to go spend my free time. Something like a climatic/meteorological sandbox. not a site but a program it's called universe sandbox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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