bluewave Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: Just imagine if you would’ve shifted that 150 miles west oh boy The interior crew wouldn’t be happy if this was a snowfall forecast. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The latest PNA forecast is even more extreme. The GEFS maxes out near a ridiculous +4. The highest ever in August was just +3.1. I think that this is why the models have such a sharp rainfall cutoff west of NYC. A piece of the Western heat comes east when the PNA begins to flatten later this week. It's west though from 0z. The WAR has something to say about this too. Probably a good soaking for especially the city and east upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: It's west though from 0z. The WAR has something to say about this too. Probably a good soaking for especially the city and east upcoming. yeah both NAMS are a drencher just east of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 Will that move away for the weekend? We have an outdoor event on Fire Island that we've already paid for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Will that move away for the weekend? We have an outdoor event on Fire Island that we've already paid for. yeah it's in and out in 12 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 15 hours ago, Brian5671 said: yeah both NAMS are a drencher just east of NYC The Euro, Rgem and gem-lam (farthest west) are too. The gfs to an extent as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 3, 2021 Author Share Posted August 3, 2021 11 hours ago, LibertyBell said: sounds like climo regular kind of low 90s to perhaps 95 kind of heat we see every year. Mostly Yes.... I of course worry about the GFS backdoor early next week but the EC seems to be steadfast on the 710AM comments this morning. Now that the EC and NAM are giving LI a nice 1-2" bath tomorrow into Thursday, a little bit nor'easter style, am may be getting ready to get a little bolder and fire up the thread tomorrow morning by 6AM. Will revisit 00z/4 ensembles and multi op models... As per prior posts...near 90F heat begins interior Fri afternoon. Biggest heat may be delayed til Wednesday-Thursday of next week. I saw only about 19C on the 00z/3 ensembles at 850MB..haven yet to check the 12z. Rainfall: I still think spot 6" by the 15th but it's not worth a thread since modeling is much less (esp WPC thru D7). Looks like slow moving heavy showers/few thunder this coming weekend and then next week from Tuesday onward. Probably a couple of wet microburst SVR's in there across NJ/se NYS/CT middle and end of next week. Heat and thunderstorm activity should linger past the 15th..unsure for how long but into the 17th is possible. The 90F heat looks fairly routine for summer (imo) and mainly interior, and the qpf is spread out enough geographically, so these factors limit the value of any thread, at least at this Tuesday morning time. Will have two try to pick these qpf events off, as they approach within 2 days and have enough geographic coverage to warrant interest. Reevaluating as time allows tonight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 18z gfs is further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 12k nam 3k nam Rgem Gem-lam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 3, 2021 Author Share Posted August 3, 2021 I have just looked at the NAEFS D8-14... ITS likely warmer than normal past the 15th. CPC outlook added, and the MAX HI that there NWS is forecasting for NYC. Add a few for EWR and central NJ. EC EPS 12z run still 19C Tue and WED with a slight cooling Thu-FRI. Anyway, the Atlantic waiters are warming and nearby water temps 70-73. Corn is tall and lush here in nw NJ. Think some of the factors for dew points in the 70s are coming together for this coming week, including CAPE near 2000J, PW corridor of 1.8" possibly persisting mid and late next week along I95, KI occasionally-mid-upper 30s Mon-at least Fri, light winds aloft. . Already stickier than this morning. Not much else to add. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy. A developing system will head northward along a frontal system and bring a period of moderate to significant rain to parts of the region. The area of heaviest rain will likely extend across southern New Jersey and Long Island into the eastern half of New England. Generally somewhat below normal readings will persist into the weekend. Afterward, a much warmer pattern could develop for a time. The temperature could be pressing 90° during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was +6.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.012 today. The preliminary Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern figure was +2.931. That smashed the daily record of +2.116, which was set in 2018. On August 1 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.394 (RMM). The July 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.327 (RMM). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Record long HW an outside possiblity according to the GFS ENS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 I will do the Next 8 Days after I recover. WARNING>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>And This Is Not Dallas.................. 1 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 82degs.(73/91), or +6. 71*(67%RH) here at 6am, overcast. 76* at Noon and probably the high. SREF with 1.7" in the City this PM-night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 What's the deal with Saturday? Is their a rain chance? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: I will do the Next 8 Days after I recover. WARNING>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>And This Is Not Dallas.................. These are consistently too hot. There won’t be 8 straight over 100 degree days in NYC. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Humidity noticable this (81%) AM, currently 65 outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Tonight could be an eastern LI special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Just now, Rjay said: Tonight could be an eastern LI special. Yep, trends are east this morning. Might just be the twin forks really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and cool. Showers and a period of rain are likely later today and tonight. Locations such as Islip, Providence, and Boston could reach or exceed 1.00” of rain. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 77° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.2° Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 87.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 87.6° Heat will likely return during the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: I will do the Next 8 Days after I recover. WARNING>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>And This Is Not Dallas.................. That would be the hottest heatwave ever for NYC...that's not happening or at least I hope it doesn't lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 4 hours ago, CIK62 said: I will do the Next 8 Days after I recover. WARNING>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>And This Is Not Dallas.................. That would hurt if those Temps came to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 one can dream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 If it's gonna be hot I wanna see some records. Let's get widespread 100s next week. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Winds onshore today but a sTransition to Florida style pattern beginning. Progression is one thats a more southerly flow with humid / warm to hot but plenty of rain chances is a good bet. Friday (8/6) warmer on latest guidance and now 90s likely in the warmer spots. Trough lifts out saturday (8/7) and with it come clouds and some rain before sunday (8/8) if we clear out in time 90s are possible. Mon (8/8) through the next work week, Humid - Hot and id suspect routine storm chances - we'll have to see and hone in on the more active days in subsequent days. ECM and GFS have 805 temps >18c by Tue - Wed and peaking >20 Thu as the flow flattens and the heat out west breaks east for a period. Beyond there we'll need to watch the tropics. August looks to roll on warmer as we get to and beyond mid month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: one can dream Book ends heat may make or break the summer towards the hotter ones. 90 degree days will get closer to the 2012, 2015, 2016, 2018 totals if the pattern evolves as being forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Oh man Euro was terrible with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 another weak low the euro went overboard with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 2 hours ago, Rjay said: Oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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