SnoSki14 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: If we believe the gfs september starts off rainy and cool followed by dry pleasant weather thru labor day weekend The cool down looks legit given the coming pattern. Very strong blocking pattern likely. Gfs has two shots of cool air on the heels of tropical system remnants from the gulf. So we will see relief soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 100° heat index on the South Shore with a 77° dew point. Wantagh 88 77 HX 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 99.5 degrees...can we crack 100 again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 92/73/101 very little steering flow, if anything pops up somebody could flood 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Which is Which here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 92 here, feels like 98* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 49 minutes ago, Poker2015 said: 99.5 degrees...can we crack 100 again? 100 degrees exactly!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Very strong blocking pattern likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Damn was just going out to mow the lawn and a shower popped up right over me....had a quick 0.18"....dropped temp to 79° after high of 93°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Nice little t storm popped up after first shower dissipated...0.50" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Nice little t storm popped up after first shower dissipated...0.50" so far.Just got inside from work as the first few drops hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, SI Mailman said: 18 minutes ago, doncat said: Nice little t storm popped up after first shower dissipated...0.50" so far. Just got inside from work as the first few drops hit. Had 0.87" on West shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 One more hot day lies ahead. Afterward, a front will move slowly through the region and it could stall nearby. The result will be cooler weather with potential showers and thundershowers during the weekend. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Ida has now developed. Ida will pose a threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast early next week. Some of the guidance has it making landfall as a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane. Through 7 pm CDT, New Orleans has received 65.74" of rain. That is the 2nd highest figure on record for this time of year. As a result, the already saturated ground could exacerbate the risk of flooding from Ida. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.41°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. Afterward, La Niña could begin to develop. The SOI was +5.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.640 today. On August 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.489 (RMM). The August 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.553 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.4° (1.4° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 8/26 EWR: 97 LGA: 94 TEB: 94 BLM: 93 New Brnswck: 93 PHL: 93 TTN: 92 ISP: 92 NYC: 91 ACY: 90 JFK: 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Just because it gets a sea breeze first, doesn’t mean there are any problems with the temperatures. Wantagh is currently 87/74 with a very humid sea breeze. Farmingdale a little further from the shore is 90/71. Is it possible me being 2 miles from the ocean makes a difference....I'm sort of a hybrid of JFK, FRG and ISP We did have a sea breeze kick in around 2 PM but it got to 92 at noon first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: their glaciers are melting faster than you can count all the letters in their names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 5 hours ago, Poker2015 said: 100 degrees exactly!! How do you guys get all the fun?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 6 hours ago, bluewave said: 100° heat index on the South Shore with a 77° dew point. Wantagh 88 77 HX 100 stupid ocean takes all the fun out of extreme temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 6 hours ago, bluewave said: The SSTs are peaking later this year than recent summers. Notice the upper 70s ocean temperatures now from the Jersey Shore to the LI South Shore. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1650 77 170/ 8/ 10 1019.3 2/ 6 20 S Fire Island 1650 75 1019.7 2/ 6 Great South Bay 1630 80 81 220/ 8/ 10 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1650 74 72 240/ 6/ 8 1019.8 2/ 6 15 E Barnegat Li 1656 78 N/A 2/13 Hudson Canyon 1650 78 78 230/ 8/ 10 1020.8 2/12 Whats it going to take to get ocean temps consistently in the 80s? Once we get there we can neutralize the sea breeze. That happened in our really hot summers when we had multiple days over 100;. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 High for the day was 95 here. Picked up 0.56" of rain for the day Current temp 79/DP 73/RH 81% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 93/72 split today...0.87" rain...9.58" for month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 92.4 high here today. no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 The last 5 days of August are averaging 81degs.(74/81), or +9. Super cooldown starting Sept. 02? The always too warm GFS is bigtime BN, w/o adjustment. Month to date is 77.6[+1.2]. * August would end at 78.2[+2.2], but more likely just where it is. *New Site. NWS more interested in appearances than correcting NYC ASOS equipment's setting and site. Lol. Only reached 85 here yesterday. 78*(90%RH) here at 6am, hazy. 82* by 9am. 85* at 10am.(really bootin' it) 87* at 11am. Reached 90*(60%RH) at 2:30pm. btw. Anyone know why the Sub_X( sub-normal perhaps) Model is engaged in predicting the T's for Jan.-1960???!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Long Island is close to its 9th top 10 warmest average summer temperature since 2010. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 74.7 0 2 2020 74.6 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 6 2019 73.8 0 7 2021 73.7 5 8 2018 73.5 0 - 2005 73.5 0 9 2013 73.4 0 10 2012 73.3 0 - 1991 73.3 0 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Currently 78* here as of 7:30AM, DP 72, RH 89% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and hot. The risk of showers and thundershowers will increase during the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 90° Newark: 93° Philadelphia: 92° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.9°; 15-Year: 81.7° Newark: 30-Year: 83.3°; 15-Year: 83.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 84.1° A cooler and occasionally wet weekend lies ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 51 minutes ago, bluewave said: Long Island is close to its 9th top 10 warmest average summer temperature since 2010. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 74.7 0 2 2020 74.6 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 6 2019 73.8 0 7 2021 73.7 5 8 2018 73.5 0 - 2005 73.5 0 9 2013 73.4 0 10 2012 73.3 0 - 1991 73.3 0 Good morning BW. ‘Statistics’; the data projectiles that every wall of doubt must come up against. As always ….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 another atrocious day if you do not like the heat and humidity raises my hand.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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