August 2021

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

WAR isn't really a heat pump, it's more of a humidity pump.  Our truly hot summers come with a downsloping flow from the west which brings in true unadulterated pure heat.  Haven't had that in almost a decade.

 

You are pretty much just talking about the immediate shore areas. We have had one top 10 hottest summer after another for the last 10 years. Outside of places like JFK, a SW flow can be very hot also. But JFK has been leading the area in highest dew points since the record humidity increase in 2016. So the the higher heat indices at a place like JFK can make it feel as hot without all the 90° days like a westerly flow summer has at the South Shore.

[forkyfork]

august is july part ii and september is the new august

[Rtd208]

Current temp 95/DP 70/RH 46%

[Cfa]

96.

Highest temp this summer (two 96’s), forecasts said 88-90.

[bluewave]

Heat indices approaching 100° in NJ.

Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY   95  66  38 VRB5      30.08F HX  98

Somerville     SUNNY     92  71  50 CALM      30.07F HX  98

 

 

[lee59]

My second hottest day of the year with a high of 93.4

[nycwinter]

does not feel as bad a previous hot spells in the city dewpoints still in the 60;s you can already tell summer is coming to a close..

[uncle W]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another weekend with measurable rain?

 

 

hey we need to get to 10"...

[nyrangers1022]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

does not feel as bad a previous hot spells in the city dewpoints still in the 60;s you can already tell summer is coming to a close..

I disagree.  My work pants were soaked right through

[uncle W]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be some streak if moisture from 99L makes it in by Labor Day weekend. 
 

 

 

there have been storms in the past that gave NYC inches of rain from a gulf landfalling tropical system...

[CIK62]

Firstly, the GFSx has the T at just 80 tops---on Sat/Sun. with a strong E/SE wind.

 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   8/25/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      THU 26| FRI 27| SAT 28| SUN 29| MON 30| TUE 31| WED 01|THU CLIMO
 N/X  76  93| 76  91| 69  72| 66  82| 71  82| 72  88| 66  77| 63 64 80
 TMP  78  85| 79  82| 72  66| 68  75| 73  77| 75  79| 68  70| 65      
 DPT  69  69| 71  71| 67  66| 67  69| 69  67| 67  61| 58  59| 57      
 CLD  CL  PC| CL  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC| PC  OV| OV      
 WND   2   2|  2   2|  9  11|  7   5|  3   4|  2   4|  4   9|  7      
 P12   1   2| 12  34| 72  72| 40  23| 47  42| 26  18| 28  36| 33999999
 P24       2|     42|     82|     40|     62|     34|     50|      999
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  4   4|  1   0|  1   2|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      5|      0|      3|      0|       |         
 T12   0  15| 10  32| 34  22|  5  12| 19  28| 14  11| 11  11|  6      
 T24        | 18    | 58    | 23    | 32    | 36    | 18    | 17      

 

Here is the potential IDA after going from 1000mb to the 968mb shown---in 48 hours.       The GFS from which this model gets its initiation, has kicked this storm's track around for two days.       At any rate, looks like a late developer and then really goes nowhere when inland.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2021082512-invest99l/slp42.png

[LoboLeader1]

High of 93 here today.

[dmillz25]

Got to 92 for the high. Now 90/68 as the dews gone up

[dmillz25]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Another weekend with measurable rain?

 

 

I’m going to a wedding near Trenton this weekend so I’m hoping for a mostly dry day Saturday 

[psv88]

At Hershey Pa for the week and it’s incredibly hot here. 

[Byrdhousebv]

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

does not feel as bad a previous hot spells in the city dewpoints still in the 60;s you can already tell summer is coming to a close..

It's the "sun angle"; just can't keep that oppressive heat discomfort this time of the season....LOL

[nycwinter]

27 minutes ago, Byrdhousebv said:

It's the "sun angle"; just can't keep that oppressive heat discomfort this time of the season....LOL

agreed diminished sun angle already  a factor..

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It would be some streak if moisture from 99L makes it in by Labor Day weekend. 
 

 

 

It'll depend on whether or not future Ida gets left behind or not. I lean towards it recurving with the coming shortwave.

If that happens we'll see a lot more tropical downpours and possibly gusty conditions with spinners.

[bluewave]

Islip tied the record high and Newark missed by 1°.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0441 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORDS OF 92 SET IN 1998 AND 1969.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
437 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 25 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         96    255 PM  97    1993  84     12       92       
  MINIMUM         73    509 AM  48    1940  67      6       73       
  AVERAGE         85                        75     10       83    

[doncat]

90/68 temp split today.

[donsutherland1]

Today saw temperatures rise into the lower and middle 90s across much of the region. Tomorrow will be a similar day.

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 25):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 22 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 46 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 22 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 10 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 13 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 32 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 22 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 7 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 9 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 23 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 15 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 37 (2020: 33 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 33 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 17 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 42 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 21 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 23 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Much of the remainder of this week will feature unseasonably warm temperatures. Cooler weather and possibly some rain will arrive for the weekend.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.41°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. Afterward, La Niña could begin to develop.

The SOI was +10.07 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.600 today.

On August 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.586 (RMM). The August 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.672 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.3° (1.3° above normal).

 

[gravitylover]

I dunno, the 87/88 I dealt with this afternoon was pretty hot and uncomfortable. Maybe it wouldn't be quite as unpleasant if the AC in my car worked but it was hot.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

You are pretty much just talking about the immediate shore areas. We have had one top 10 hottest summer after another for the last 10 years. Outside of places like JFK, a SW flow can be very hot also. But JFK has been leading the area in highest dew points since the record humidity increase in 2016. So the the higher heat indices at a place like JFK can make it feel as hot without all the 90° days like a westerly flow summer has at the South Shore.

I cant wait until we get back to those extremely hot Sonoran Heat Pump summers!  Aren't those our hottest summers for the entire area though? I saw that EWR has their hottest summers in that kind of situation too (1993, 2010).  Get that 120 degree air to come all the way east, slightly modified of course.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Islip tied the record high and Newark missed by 1°.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0441 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORDS OF 92 SET IN 1998 AND 1969.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
437 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 25 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         96    255 PM  97    1993  84     12       92       
  MINIMUM         73    509 AM  48    1940  67      6       73       
  AVERAGE         85                        75     10       83    

wow 1993 was still setting records even this late in the summer

 

[Stormlover74]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow 1993 was still setting records even this late in the summer

 

It was my first day of college and I remember sweating my ass off in the dorm

[SACRUS]

8/25

EWR: 96
LGA: 94
PHL: 94
TEB: 93
New Brnswck: 93
ISP: 92
BLM: 92
ACY: 91
TTN: 91
NYC: 91
JFK: 89

[Rjay]

28 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

8/25

EWR: 96
LGA: 94
PHL: 94
TEB: 93
New Brnswck: 93
ISP: 92
BLM: 92
ACY: 91
TTN: 91
NYC: 91
JFK: 89

2 days in a row ISP beats NYC lol 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was my first day of college and I remember sweating my ass off in the dorm

I remember we had back to back days in the 90s as late as mid September as Cat 3 Hurricane Emily grazed Cape Hatteras and missed us wide right.

 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, Rjay said:

2 days in a row ISP beats NYC lol 

That's awesome, what's a tourney without a few upsets lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

8/25

EWR: 96
LGA: 94
PHL: 94
TEB: 93
New Brnswck: 93
ISP: 92
BLM: 92
ACY: 91
TTN: 91
NYC: 91
JFK: 89

I call foul on the JFK high.  It was actually hotter on the south shore today than yesterday by 1 degree.  How could JFK have possibly been stuck at 89 on a westerly wind?  I hit 91 between 3 and 4 PM while it hit 90 here yesterday at 5 PM.  JFK had a high of 92 yesterday no way no how they were 3 degrees lower today.