August 2021

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Do we know if any actually materialized?  We got out of bed and went to the basement.  It was loud here north of HPN but no reports in these parts.

I saw a video of one but it was in eastern PA

 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, Rjay said:

We toss?

tossing runs that favor weenies is discrimination

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Not til after the euro runs…if the euro agrees then it’s game on. 
edir…New England Mets note  ukie initialized too strong 

hmmm if this storms hits eastern NE it will likely only be a TS when it gets into the much colder waters up there.  It's only chance of making a landfall as a hurricane is in the tristate area

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 12z UKMET is really tucked in with Henri. But we’’ll have to wait for the higher res maps in a little while. These charts are early but low res.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0

so basically what I heard Dr Postel say is that if the storm is stronger it will be further west and if it's weaker it'll hit the cape.

The choice according to the maps posted is either out to sea, a 65 mph TS hitting the Cape or (the extreme scenario) an 85 mph H hitting the tristate

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

East is where most of the action is with landfalling tropical systems in the northeast minus the heaviest rain totals.

you're right of course but a caveat in this case is the much cooler waters east of here, if it makes landfall on the Cape it looks like it will only be a TS at LF

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

I think this could lead to pockets of moderate coastal flooding (assuming it heads N-NNE towards the Cape). The closer the track the worse it will be.  The wind field will be expanding but it's not a very large storm.  I definitely see your point though.  

I wonder how much rain for us on that track.  Also do you think the storm will be really destructive for the Cape even if it makes landfall only as a TS (65 mph) there?  Weren't Bertha and Floyd both 65 mph TS when they made landfall on Long Island?  Didn't see much destruction there.

 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

We toss?

Haven’t they flown the Gulfstream jet out off the mid Atlantic coast to sample the upper levels?  I think they were actually going to send it out again.  

[Rjay]

Just now, Tatamy said:

Haven’t they flown the Gulfstream jet out off the mid Atlantic coast to sample the upper levels?  I think they were actually going to send it out again.  

Yeah. I thought they did and will continue to do so. 

[Tatamy]

12z Euro continues to be east and weaker.  12z HWRF/HMON are aimed at the vicinity of New Bedford,MA.  12z Ukmet is west.  Too early to write this one off.

[Tatamy]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Yeah. I thought they did and will continue to do so. 

That is why the Ukmet run surprises me.  Once the data from first flight was uploaded the GFS went east.  Maybe the Ukmet will go back east tonight.  Let’s wait on the ensembles.

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

how long before subtropical goes full on tropical?

 

Very impressive dew points from Florida into SE Canada.

 

 

 

[BombsAway1288]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

hmmm if this storms hits eastern NE it will likely only be a TS when it gets into the much colder waters up there.  It's only chance of making a landfall as a hurricane is in the tristate area

 

That's not true.

Could easily still make landfall anywhere between Montauk and Nantucket as a hurricane.

All options are still on the table.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

That's not true.

Could easily still make landfall anywhere between Montauk and Nantucket as a hurricane.

All options are still on the table.

Would say about East Hampton is furthest west possible landfall at this stage.  Given this will be more or a true tropical than Sandy there probably won’t be a ton of wind west of the center so you’d have to be near or east of it for strongest winds 

[donsutherland1]

The remnants of Fred moved away from the region. Earlier today, Worcester picked up 3.05" rainfall in five hours. It also recorded back-to-back hours with 1.00" or more rain for just the 3rd time on record and its 8th highest hourly rainfall figure of 1.44". In the Middle Atlantic region, temperatures rose into the lower 90s in Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and very warm. Temperatures will likely climb into the middle and upper 80s across the region.

During the weekend, the track of Henri will have potential impacts on the weather, especially for Sunday into Monday. At present, a track that takes Henri toward landfall in eastern New England or off the New England shore remains the most likely outcome. That should bring high surf, rip tides, showers and possibly some periods of rain to eastern parts of the Middle Atlantic region, especially the eastern half of Long Island.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +8.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.704 today.

On August 17 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.344 (RMM). The August 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.676 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.7° (0.7° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

That's not true.

Could easily still make landfall anywhere between Montauk and Nantucket as a hurricane.

All options are still on the table.

I was going by the NHC official track which had it weakening at our latitude or just before.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Would say about East Hampton is furthest west possible landfall at this stage.  Given this will be more or a true tropical than Sandy there probably won’t be a ton of wind west of the center so you’d have to be near or east of it for strongest winds 

What exactly is keeping this from going further west, a front coming in?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive dew points from Florida into SE Canada.

 

 

 

when is this current bout of extreme dew points supposed to end? It's been utterly miserable the last couple of days.

 

[SACRUS]

8/19

PHL: 90
EWR: 90
BLM: 89
ACY: 89
LGA: 89
JFK: 88
New Brnswck: 88
TTN: 87
TEB: 86
ISP: 85
NYC: 85

[Stormlover74]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

when is this current bout of extreme dew points supposed to end? It's been utterly miserable the last couple of days.

 

Maybe next weekend 

[doncat]

87/75 temp split today...0.54" rain.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

8/19

PHL: 90
EWR: 90
BLM: 89
ACY: 89
LGA: 89
JFK: 88
New Brnswck: 88
TTN: 87
TEB: 86
ISP: 85
NYC: 85

JFK 3 degrees hotter than NYC on a sea breeze, interesting

 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK 3 degrees hotter than NYC on a sea breeze, interesting

 

Water temps are 75-76 now. Not much cooling from seabreezes. They only raise the humidity. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Water temps are 75-76 now. Not much cooling from seabreezes. They only raise the humidity. 

If we do get a direct hit from a hurricane this season it would maintain a lot of its strength.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 84degs.(76/92), or +10.       GFS going out of August, Strong and Wrong.

Month to date is  77.1[+0.4].        Would be  79.2[+3.0] by the 30th.     More likely would be  78.0[+1.8]. 

850mb T's are still 16C---21C through the 28th.     Then quick changes leading to a 9/05 crash{first 40's?}

76*(80%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast.     80* at 10am.        Reached 85*(63%RH) at 5pm.

I gave Newark competion yesterday with 90*[55%RH] at 5pm-6pm.

HMON, HWRF models have Henri croaking over NYC---LI (on Sunday) and an ordinary L then proceeding north.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

when is this current bout of extreme dew points supposed to end? It's been utterly miserable the last couple of days.

 

This could be one of our longer 70°+ dew point streaks. The Euro has 70°+ dew points for the rest of the month. So we are on track for our first 6 year stretch of 50 days reaching the 70° dew point mark.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly cloudy. A few places could see a shower or thundershower. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 84°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.0°; 15-Year: 82.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 85.2°

Henri could impact the region on Sunday into Monday. Model solutions are west of where they were yesterday and the formative block may leave latitude for an even further west track. Parts of Long Island and New England could experience hurricane-force wind gusts as things currently stand.

[Rtd208]

Pretty good slug of moderate to heavy rain moving up from the southwest. Some of this should get into the NYC metro. Amounts TBD.

[SACRUS]

78 / 69 and cloudy.  Unlike Wed / Thu today looks mainly cloudy.  Saturday - Sunday more of the same clouds / humid and increasing storm / rain chances increasing by Sun as Henri tracks east of NJ into E=LI / and SNE.  Henri will come into SNE then hook left into the Catskills later Sun into Mon.  We'll likely deal with clouds and showers till then.  

 

By Tue (8/23) - Fri (8/27) ridge over the EC, clears out and we heat up.  850 temps forecast at >16c by Tue then >18c Wed (8/25) and Thu (8/26).  

Front and more onshore humid / hung up boundary later next week into next weekend.  Longer range does look to continue warm to hot as some guidance hinting strong heat out west slides east towards the end of the month and opening of next month. 8/30 and beynd.

[SACRUS]

21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Pretty good slug of moderate to heavy rain moving up from the southwest. Some of this should get into the NYC metro. Amounts TBD.

 

Lets see if it continues east or comes up into CNJ/NNJ later this morning

 

[SACRUS]