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Henri figures to be just outside the 40N. 70W Benchmark on Sunday AM.

Remember a stronger system would be steered by winds much higher up in the atmosphere and could alter this path.

gfs_z850_vort_neus_14.png

Follow path of the rain from run to run is best way to see track changes.         48 hours ago it was way east.     It came west but lost some in the last 24hrs.     gfs_apcpn_eus_19.png Compare:

gfs_apcpn_us_16.png

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36 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Need to be east of storm for any surge threat as well as wind

That is not correct.  Any significant tropical or non-tropical system can cause surge issues in the New York bight.  The center only needs to move northwards parallel to the coast or linger off shore in order to build high tides in along the coast.  The Perfect Storm of 1991 was a good example.  I drove along Ocean Pkwy during the event and the water was up to the shoulder of the road along the bay side near Captree.

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5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

That is not correct.  Any significant tropical or non-tropical system can cause surge issues in the New York bight.  The center only needs to move northwards parallel to the coast or linger off shore in order to build high tides in along the coast.  The Perfect Storm of 1991 was a good example.  I drove along Ocean Pkwy during the event and the water was up to the shoulder of the road along the bay side near Captree.

that was a boring storm lol barely any rain at all.

Dec 1992 was FAR superior to it and quite frankly to any other coastal storm I've ever experienced, 3 days of wind and rain mixed with snow.

You're right about west of storm surge issues though it impacts coastal areas and causes evacuations in cities like Long Beach.

 

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2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

So you don’t care about wind and surge with a TC.  Okay.

No wind and surge don't interest me, because I dont go to the beach.  I would rather not have wind because I dont want my roof to be blown off- so it's a concern, but after Sandy I definitely dont ever want to experience winds like that ever again and probably wont.  So I care about them in the sense that I dont want them.  I love things I can actually see- like rain and snow.

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No wind and surge don't interest me, because I dont go to the beach.  I would rather not have wind because I dont want my roof to be blown off- so it's a concern, but after Sandy I definitely dont ever want to experience winds like that ever again and probably wont.  So I care about them in the sense that I dont want them.  I love things I can actually see- like rain and snow.

 

Do you have any recollection of the surge impacts from Sandy?  Those impacts spread beyond the beach.  They actually spread as far inland as the NJ Turnpike near Secaucus plus a few other low spots.

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1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

Do you have any recollection of the surge impacts from Sandy?  Those impacts spread beyond the beach.  They actually spread as far inland as the NJ Turnpike near Secaucus plus a few other low spots.

Yeah it was horrible.  I know the impact of it is bad, but I mean it's not something I ever want to experience and I dont want anyone else to experience it either.  Honestly, I'll be super happy once we have climate control and limit the destruction to lives and property that weather events cause.  I dont mind a few inches of rain and some wind (like in the 30-50 mph area, thats not really destructive.)  But 60+ mph winds and high surge are too destructive to really be something to look forward to.  Of course your tastes may vary.

 

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17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

heaviest rains are 100 miles to the west with TC at our latitude, most of us care about rain not wind and surge.  East of storm is usually boring with paltry rainfall totals

 

East is where most of the action is with landfalling tropical systems in the northeast minus the heaviest rain totals.

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8 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Latest discussion from the NHC indicates that Henri makes it’s closest approach to the region Sunday morning.  It is projected to have winds of 85 mph with an expanding wind field.  This aligns with a high tide in sync with a full moon.  This is a recipe for significant coastal flooding.

I think this could lead to pockets of moderate coastal flooding (assuming it heads N-NNE towards the Cape). The closer the track the worse it will be.  The wind field will be expanding but it's not a very large storm.  I definitely see your point though.  

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