David-LI Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Don't think it ever was. Surge and rain would be the story with this. Wind is always a concern for Long Island and coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Don't think it ever was. Surge and rain would be the story with this. Need to be east of storm for any surge threat as well as wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 922mb on the 3k. Looks legit 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Henri figures to be just outside the 40N. 70W Benchmark on Sunday AM. Remember a stronger system would be steered by winds much higher up in the atmosphere and could alter this path. Follow path of the rain from run to run is best way to see track changes. 48 hours ago it was way east. It came west but lost some in the last 24hrs. Compare: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: 922mb on the 3k. Looks legit This is why NAM should never be used to track a TC. From 880 monsters in the gulf to 922 off the Delmarva, what other shenanigans will it cook up next 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 36 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Need to be east of storm for any surge threat as well as wind That is not correct. Any significant tropical or non-tropical system can cause surge issues in the New York bight. The center only needs to move northwards parallel to the coast or linger off shore in order to build high tides in along the coast. The Perfect Storm of 1991 was a good example. I drove along Ocean Pkwy during the event and the water was up to the shoulder of the road along the bay side near Captree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 39 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Need to be east of storm for any surge threat as well as wind heaviest rains are 100 miles to the west with TC at our latitude, most of us care about rain not wind and surge. East of storm is usually boring with paltry rainfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, Tatamy said: That is not correct. Any significant tropical or non-tropical system can cause surge issues in the New York bight. The center only needs to move northwards parallel to the coast or linger off shore in order to build high tides in along the coast. The Perfect Storm of 1991 was a good example. I drove along Ocean Pkwy during the event and the water was up to the shoulder of the road along the bay side near Captree. that was a boring storm lol barely any rain at all. Dec 1992 was FAR superior to it and quite frankly to any other coastal storm I've ever experienced, 3 days of wind and rain mixed with snow. You're right about west of storm surge issues though it impacts coastal areas and causes evacuations in cities like Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 40 minutes ago, Rjay said: 922mb on the 3k. Looks legit It's too legit to quit! Or maybe it will by the next run lol. Or maybe it'll be sub 900 mb next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: heaviest rains are 100 miles to the west with TC at our latitude, most of us care about rain not wind and surge. East of storm is usually boring with paltry rainfall totals So you don’t care about wind and surge with a TC. Okay. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Lots of tornado warnings last night, phone was going crazy 4 tornado warnings but all north of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: So you don’t care about wind and surge with a TC. Okay. No wind and surge don't interest me, because I dont go to the beach. I would rather not have wind because I dont want my roof to be blown off- so it's a concern, but after Sandy I definitely dont ever want to experience winds like that ever again and probably wont. So I care about them in the sense that I dont want them. I love things I can actually see- like rain and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: No wind and surge don't interest me, because I dont go to the beach. I would rather not have wind because I dont want my roof to be blown off- so it's a concern, but after Sandy I definitely dont ever want to experience winds like that ever again and probably wont. So I care about them in the sense that I dont want them. I love things I can actually see- like rain and snow. Do you have any recollection of the surge impacts from Sandy? Those impacts spread beyond the beach. They actually spread as far inland as the NJ Turnpike near Secaucus plus a few other low spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: Do you have any recollection of the surge impacts from Sandy? Those impacts spread beyond the beach. They actually spread as far inland as the NJ Turnpike near Secaucus plus a few other low spots. Yeah it was horrible. I know the impact of it is bad, but I mean it's not something I ever want to experience and I dont want anyone else to experience it either. Honestly, I'll be super happy once we have climate control and limit the destruction to lives and property that weather events cause. I dont mind a few inches of rain and some wind (like in the 30-50 mph area, thats not really destructive.) But 60+ mph winds and high surge are too destructive to really be something to look forward to. Of course your tastes may vary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Latest discussion from the NHC indicates that Henri makes it’s closest approach to the region Sunday morning. It is projected to have winds of 85 mph with an expanding wind field. This aligns with a high tide in sync with a full moon. This is a recipe for significant coastal flooding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: heaviest rains are 100 miles to the west with TC at our latitude, most of us care about rain not wind and surge. East of storm is usually boring with paltry rainfall totals East is where most of the action is with landfalling tropical systems in the northeast minus the heaviest rain totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 GFS well eastSent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Latest discussion from the NHC indicates that Henri makes it’s closest approach to the region Sunday morning. It is projected to have winds of 85 mph with an expanding wind field. This aligns with a high tide in sync with a full moon. This is a recipe for significant coastal flooding. I think this could lead to pockets of moderate coastal flooding (assuming it heads N-NNE towards the Cape). The closer the track the worse it will be. The wind field will be expanding but it's not a very large storm. I definitely see your point though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 If the Cape ends up on the east side on this storm the surge will be destructive there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 4 tornado warnings but all north of here Do we know if any actually materialized? We got out of bed and went to the basement. It was loud here north of HPN but no reports in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z UKMET is really tucked in with Henri. But we’’ll have to wait for the higher res maps in a little while. These charts are early but low res. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 Can you post when that's available? Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 @bluewave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, Rjay said: Lol wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Lol wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 The unmet is every weenies dream come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 We toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: We toss? Not til after the euro runs…if the euro agrees then it’s game on. edir…New England Mets note ukie initialized too strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 33 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Do we know if any actually materialized? We got out of bed and went to the basement. It was loud here north of HPN but no reports in these parts. Mt Holly is conducting surveys in a few areas of north jersey and PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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