Tatamy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 12z HWRF at 60 hours is 20mb deeper than the 06z run. It’s also further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 HMON FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 12z GFS puts the Henri right on top of the Nassau-Suffolk border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 HWRF has it at 948 mb on Saturday night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: HWRF has it at 948 mb on Saturday night lol. Weakens it from there into what’s probably a transitioning cyclone by 102 hours with an expanding windfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Hooking it to the left right before LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Euro doesn't have anything 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 On 8/13/2021 at 4:25 PM, bluewave said: Don’t feel so bad. This has been a well known issue for a long time. Since the NWS left Rockefeller Center in the early 90s, the quality of the Central Park weather observations has declined. Good afternoon BW. I did receive a short response from Mr. Kenneth Boutin, ASOS Program Manager, NOAA, NWS, ASOS Program Office, as follows: ”Ahhh, I see now. Let me work this and I’ll see what I can do. KB” I thanked him in reply and now we wait again. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 39 minutes ago, lee59 said: 12z GFS puts the Henri right on top of the Nassau-Suffolk border. Mike Ventrice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Beginning to think that if everything holds in the next 48/72 hours LI and East interests need to think about preparing—fairly sizable TS force wind area at this time with a 75kt cat1/transitioning cyclone pushing ashore at least with the HWRF considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Dan76 said: Better there than here. uhm with that track we're all getting it, remember a hurricane isn't a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, rclab said: Good afternoon BW. I did receive a short response from Mr. Kenneth Boutin, ASOS Program Manager, NOAA, NWS, ASOS Program Office, as follows: ”Ahhh, I see now. Let me work this and I’ll see what I can do. KB” I thanked him in reply and now we wait again. As always …. Just show him this…. Yeah, I would be curious to see how they respond to a simple analysis like we have done on this forum. JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change NYC max….83.0…83.2….+0.2 min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2 EWR max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9 min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0 LGA max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4 min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1 JFK max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0 min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Weakens it from there into what’s probably a transitioning cyclone by 102 hours with an expanding windfield yeah so even if you're 100 miles west of the center you'll get high winds as well as the heavier rainfall that usually occurs west of the center when these storms get up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Just show him this…. Yeah, I would be curious to see how they respond to a simple analysis like we have done on this forum. JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change NYC max….83.0…83.2….+0.2 min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2 EWR max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9 min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0 LGA max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4 min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1 JFK max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0 min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3 Also look at how NYC mins have risen in concert with the airports, but the maxes have not, unlike the airports. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: yeah so even if you're 100 miles west of the center you'll get high winds as well as the heavier rainfall that usually occurs west of the center when these storms get up here This entire subforum is in the game for now but I would anticipate some pushes back East until we settle in on one common solution. As others on the NE thread are noting wind threat probably won’t be the major stickler but flooding—surge and fresh—would be exacerbated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: This entire subforum is in the game for now but I would anticipate some pushes back East until we settle in on one common solution. As others on the NE thread are noting wind threat probably won’t be the major stickler but flooding—surge and fresh—would be exacerbated. slow moving storm that might even stall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, LibertyBell said: slow moving storm that might even stall? That’s the school of thought being presented, any strong TC would need to absolutely book it to prevent weakening in these waters. In 36-48 hours a strong cat2/3 quickly weakens to a cat 1 that’s likely commencing an ET transition because of the slower movement speed. Surge and freshwater flooding would get exacerbated if/where this thing decides to park itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I think that has allot to do with the fact that it’s not being forced up the coast after a Carolina hit later in the season via a trough. That scenario always seems to really degrade storms. Regardless of direct impact, days of large swells will cause beach erosion and lead to beach closures right during prime beach season. Its been a kinda tough season..everytime I try go to beach its cool/rainy, or warm but water closed for shark sightings. Sun I'll be at the 5 boro bike tour, been counting on good, mostly dry weather but it's looking more iffy?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: That’s the school of thought being presented, any strong TC would need to absolutely book it to prevent weakening in these waters. In 36-48 hours a strong cat2/3 quickly weakens to a cat 1 that’s likely commencing an ET transition because of the slower movement speed. Surge and freshwater flooding would get exacerbated if/where this thing decides to park itself. Like Edouard, I remember that one clearly, But that stalled too far to the east for anyone to get rain from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Yup I'm gonna ask for a point forecast... Friday afternoon/evening at Citi Field looks ok doesn't it? Dry and warm, right? Thanx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Good to know , no wonder why the HWRF and GFS were so similar. HMON track was similar but the intensity was wayyyy less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Just show him this…. Yeah, I would be curious to see how they respond to a simple analysis like we have done on this forum. JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change NYC max….83.0…83.2….+0.2 min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2 EWR max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9 min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0 LGA max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4 min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1 JFK max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0 min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3 I just received an almost immediate response as follows: ”I have engaged NWS Eastern Regional HQ for an assessment and course of action. I’ll keep you posted but request your patience in the process. KB” when and if I get through copy and paste 101 I’ll certainly send it to Mr. KB. Thank you. As always ….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 17 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Yup I'm gonna ask for a point forecast... Friday afternoon/evening at Citi Field looks ok doesn't it? Dry and warm, right? Thanx Yeah...it's poured at every concert I've been to so far this summer...and I'll be there, so take that into account . That said, looks like it might be dry for DeadCo Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Chuckled at the GFS last night. Now I'm pulled into tracking Henri. Will give it another 24-48 to fill up gas cans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Not a meteorologist, only a pro weenie so take with a grain of salt. It seems that the Euro started Henri weaker than what it is currently, and GFS started stronger. Henry is currently at 70mph sustained winds, close to Hurricane status. Safe to assume a stronger intensification will lead to a more northwest track compared to a more eastern track if Henri remains weak as shown by the euro? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: uhm with that track we're all getting it, remember a hurricane isn't a point. That’s not true. That track is a Bob track with a much weaker storm. you need significant westward movement for all of us to “get it.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, jfklganyc said: That’s not true. That track is a Bob track with a much weaker storm. you need significant westward movement for all of us to “get it.” It would be really tough for it to swing that far west though not impossible. The WAR has to end up a lot stronger, Henri needs to become a lot stronger and then maybe it'll happen. I do think if it did manage to get that far west that it'd be a pretty strong system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Hope this trends east. Isaaias was enough last year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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