Stormlover74 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like Fred remnants rainfall on Thursday, Don? I saw a map indicating that NYC and Western Long Island could get 1-3 inches of rain? Gfs has barely anything Thursday but has a weekend washout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 JFK before it was JFK was directly hit in August 1893... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, uncle W said: JFK before it was JFK was directly hit in August 1893... destroyed Hogs Island (I hope that was the right name?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Temp reached 78 here today. Humid feel (75%) out there evening. Currently 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 The strongest wind gust in NYC was actually from Hurricane Hazel. The interesting thing with this is that the storm was going thru Pennsylvania. The strongest wind gust at Brookhaven Labs on Long Island is 125mph from Hurricane Carol in 1954. The 1938 hurricane gave Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts a wind gust of 186mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, lee59 said: The strongest wind gust in NYC was actually from Hurricane Hazel. The interesting thing with this is that the storm was going thru Pennsylvania. The strongest wind gust at Brookhaven Labs on Long Island is 125mph from Hurricane Carol in 1954. The 1938 hurricane gave Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts a wind gust of 186mph. Makes sense since nyc was on the eastern side which usually produces the higher winds. What's really crazy is it produced cat 1 level winds all the way to Toronto 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Makes sense since nyc was on the eastern side which usually produces the higher winds. What's really crazy is it produced cat 1 level winds all the way to Toronto Yes it was on the east side but the storm was out in west-central Pennsylvania. I think there was interaction with other weather systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and a bit cooler today. Showers are possible. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 83° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.4°; 15-Year: 83.3° Newark: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 85.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 85.7° Cooler conditions will persist through much of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 79degs(74/85), or +4. 74*(81%RH) here at 6am, overcast. 81* by 4pm. GFS spreading <1" over the next 10 days, a drop at a time. Really more clouds than sun for a week, with rain chances 50% to 70%{versus a normal 30%} each day. Current portion of Hurricane Season is a flop. Henri can be watched for the next 84hrs., but Fred takes him away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 8 hours ago, lee59 said: The strongest wind gust in NYC was actually from Hurricane Hazel. The interesting thing with this is that the storm was going thru Pennsylvania. The strongest wind gust at Brookhaven Labs on Long Island is 125mph from Hurricane Carol in 1954. The 1938 hurricane gave Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts a wind gust of 186mph. the wind was recorded on top of the roof on 17 Battery place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 9 hours ago, lee59 said: Yes it was on the east side but the storm was out in west-central Pennsylvania. I think there was interaction with other weather systems. That storm we had last August was a miniature version of Hazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Euro and UKMET are the wettest for our area with Fred. The other models are further west with the heavy rains. Will the Euro win again like it did with the storm a few weeks ago that the models missed? In any event, another big model disagreement within only 3-4 days. Looks like it is being pulled west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: That storm we had last August was a miniature version of Hazel also Aug 1949 storm... 1949 hurricane... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998805 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998811/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, uncle W said: also Aug 1949 storm... 1949 hurricane... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998805 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998811/ There have been a lot more storms than people think. People only remember the big ones but we probably average a TC impact once every three years would you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: That storm we had last August was a miniature version of Hazel Yea it is always interesting when tropical systems go well to our west but interact with other weather systems or fronts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, lee59 said: Yea it is always interesting when tropical systems go well to our west but interact with other weather systems or fronts. That's what makes them retain most of their strength even over land. Those are my favorite. It's honestly very difficult to get a storm to go entirely over water and have a high impact here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 the only nstorms I can think of that NYC was on the eastern flank was the Jersey shore 1903 hurricane and Sandy that made landfall from the southeast...one or two came from the south right over us...those are the worst scenarios... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, uncle W said: also Aug 1949 storm... 1949 hurricane... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998805 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998811/ I was 5 months old in Aug 49 and the headlines in that paper shows how bad things were 70 years ago... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like Fred remnants rainfall on Thursday, Don? I saw a map indicating that NYC and Western Long Island could get 1-3 inches of rain? There's a lot of uncertainty--a real model battle is underway. The ECMWF, RGEM, and GGEM favor a lot of rainfall. The GFS and NAM don't. Right now, something between 0.50"-1.00" appears more likely than rainfall approaching 3" or the much drier GFS/NAM idea. It's tough to place the predecessor rainfall event even this close to the onset. I think we'll know a lot more by sometime between 12z and 0z. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: That storm we had last August was a miniature version of Hazel Hard to believe that it has been 30 years since a hurricane maintained such solid tropical structure this far north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 24 minutes ago, uncle W said: the only nstorms I can think of that NYC was on the eastern flank was the Jersey shore 1903 hurricane and Sandy that made landfall from the southeast...one or two came from the south right over us...those are the worst scenarios... what about Hazel and the storm last August? I figured a bunch of storms went to our west but still had a high impact here (anything from central PA to eastern NJ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Hard to believe that it has been 30 years since a hurricane maintained such solid tropical structure this far north. But not a big impact here since it swerved well east of here. I remember it well, it was like a windy noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hard to believe that it has been 30 years since a hurricane maintained such solid tropical structure this far north. 1991 was also one of our hottest summers tied with 1993 for most 90 degree days, maybe thats why this storm was able to maintain its structure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Just now, LibertyBell said: what about Hazel and the storm last August? I figured a bunch of storms went to our west but still had a high impact here (anything from central PA to eastern NJ) last years storm did have impact on us but not as bad as a Sandy or 1893 and 1821...Donna did more damage than Isis... 1821 from the Long Island star newspaper... 06 Sep 1821, Page 2 - The Long-Island Star at Newspapers.com 06 Sep 1821, Page 3 - The Long-Island Star at Newspapers.com 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Just now, uncle W said: last years storm did have impact on us but not as bad as a Sandy or 1893 and 1821...Donna did more damage than Isis... 1821 from the Long Island star newspaper... 06 Sep 1821, Page 2 - The Long-Island Star at Newspapers.com 06 Sep 1821, Page 3 - The Long-Island Star at Newspapers.com that must have been an amazing storm, how weird it retained its strength and tropical structure with that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Warm/humid and clouds in the way of any real heat likely through Saturday and sometime in between remnants of Fred on a very saturated/tropical atmosphere to bring rains Wed - Fri. Beyone that if we can get any period of clearing and sustained sunshine Sun - Tue looks like the next shot at 90s, but there are hints of a closed low moving through so we need to watch. Beyond that we may clear out by the middle of next week Wed (8/25) and see more ridging build into the EC by that weekend 8/27. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: that must have been an amazing storm, how weird it retained its strength and tropical structure with that track and it was before cow farts polluted the atmosphere... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, uncle W said: and it was before cow farts polluted the atmosphere... wish we had satellite images from back then. But nothing, not even camera images? were there cameras in 1821..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wish we had satellite images from back then. But nothing, not even camera images? were there cameras in 1821..... only aliens had them... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 52 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: That's what makes them retain most of their strength even over land. Those are my favorite. It's honestly very difficult to get a storm to go entirely over water and have a high impact here. Yea Gloria is a good example of that. Folks in New Jersey and NYC were mostly saying it was a bust but not out on Long Island. Good thing Gloria did not hit at high tide or the flooding would have been substantial. Bob held together nicely for being so far north. Really slammed eastern New England. Another 70 miles west and it probably would have been one of the worst hurricanes ever for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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